Illinois vs Oregon Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 9

BetMGM Betting Oct 24, 2024, 4:11 PM

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FILE - Oregon coach Dan Lanning reacts to a play against BYU during the first half of an NCAA college football game Sept. 17, 2022, in Eugene, Ore. Oregon and head coach Dan Lanning have agreed to a contract extension that will extend his deal through the 2028 season. The Oregon Board of Trustees unanimously approved the terms of the contract Thursday, July 27, 2023. Lanning’s new deal will pay him a total of $45 million in base salary over six years. (AP Photo/Andy Nelson, File)

(AP Photo/Andy Nelson)

The Oregon is a -21.5 point favorite vs. Illinois
The Illinois vs. Oregon Total (Over/Under): 54.5 points
TV Channel: CBS

The Illinois Fighting Illini (6-1) visit Autzen Stadium to take on the Oregon Ducks (7-0) on Oct. 26 in Eugene, OR. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EDT.

Oregon is a betting favorite in Week 9, with the spread sitting at -21.5 (-110).

The Illinois vs. Oregon Over/Under is 54.5 total points.

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Illinois vs. Oregon Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Illinois	+21.5 -110	54.5 -110	+1000
Oregon	-21.5 -110	54.5 -110	-2000

Illinois vs Oregon Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Oregon will win this game with 95.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Illinois and Oregon, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Illinois vs Oregon Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Illinois will cover the spread with 64.5% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Illinois Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Illinois has hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games (+7.45 Units / 5% ROI)
Illinois has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.85 Units / 26% ROI)
Illinois have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 10 games (+4.60 Units / 37% ROI)
Illinois have covered the Spread in their last 4 away games (+4.00 Units / 91% ROI)
Illinois has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 3 of their last 4 away games (+1.95 Units / 43% ROI)

Oregon Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Oregon has hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 13 games (+8.80 Units / 5% ROI)
Oregon has hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.50 Units / 23% ROI)
Oregon have covered the 1H Spread in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.45 Units / 22% ROI)
Oregon have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 14 games (+1.45 Units / 9% ROI)
Oregon has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games (+1.10 Units / 3% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Illinois players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Illinois Player Prop Bets Today

Tanner Arkin has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 93% ROI)
Pat Bryant has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 38% ROI)
Luke Altmyer has hit the TD Passes Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 44% ROI)
Luke Altmyer has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Luke Altmyer has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Oregon players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Oregon Player Prop Best Bets Today

Tez Johnson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Traeshon Holden has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 91% ROI)
Jordan James has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 91% ROI)
Terrance Ferguson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Illinois Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Illinois is 5-1 against the spread this college football season (+3.9 Units / 50.65% ROI).

Illinois is 6-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.4 Units / 6.36% ROI
Illinois is 2-5 when betting the Over for -3.5 Units / -45.45% ROI
Illinois is 5-2 when betting the Under for +2.8 Units / 36.36% ROI

Oregon Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Oregon is 3-4 against the spread this college football season (-1.35 Units / -17.65% ROI).

Oregon is 6-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.5 Units / 5.6% ROI
Oregon is 3-4 when betting the Over for -1.4 Units / -18.18% ROI
Oregon is 4-3 when betting the Under for +0.7 Units / 9.09% ROI

Illinois: Keys to the Game vs. Oregon

Illinois is 11-1 (.917) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-20th-best in FBS; Average: .756

Illinois is 12-4 (.750) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times since the 2023 season– T-24th-best in FBS; Average: .587

Illinois is 7-1 (.875) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2023 season– T-16th-best in FBS; Average: .644

Illinois is 10-2 (.833) when making 3 or more explosive runs in a game since the 2023 season– T-14th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .682

Oregon: Keys to the Game vs. Illinois

Oregon is 16-1 (.941) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: .611

Oregon is 10-2 (.833) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– T-2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .487

Oregon is 10-2 (.833) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– T-3rd-best in FBS; Average: .435

Oregon is undefeated (8-0) when forcing at least one fumble since the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .625

Matchup Notes for Illinois vs. Oregon

Oregon’s WRs has 356 receptions in 21 games (17.0 per game) since the 2023 season — 3rd-best among Big Ten WRs. Illinois’s defense has allowed 3.6 receptions per game to TEs since the 2023 season — T-30th-worst among FBS defenses.

Oregon has 576 receptions in 21 games (27.4 per game) since the 2023 season — best among Big Ten skill players. Illinois’s defense has allowed 3.6 receptions per game to TEs since the 2023 season — T-30th-worst among FBS defenses.

Oregon’s WRs has gained 4,870 yards on 356 receptions (13.7 YPR) since the 2023 season — 5th-best among Big Ten WRs. Illinois’s defense has allowed 12.2 Yards Per Reception to TEs since the 2023 season — T-25th-worst among FBS defenses.

Illinois’s WRs has 286 receptions in 19 games (15.1 per game) since the 2023 season — 5th-best among Big Ten WRs. Oregon’s defense has allowed 14.3 receptions per game to WRs since the 2023 season — T-17th-worst among FBS defenses.

Illinois’s WRs has 286 receptions in 19 games (15.1 per game) since the 2023 season — 32nd-best among FBS WRs. Oregon’s defense has allowed 14.3 receptions per game to WRs since the 2023 season — T-17th-worst among FBS defenses.

Illinois’s WRs has gained 1,258 yards on 86 receptions (14.6 YPR) this season — 5th-best among Big Ten WRs. Oregon’s defense has allowed 12.7 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — T-28th-worst among FBS defenses.

Illinois Offensive Stats & Trends

Illinois’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 11.8% of 187 attempts this season — T-35th-best among FBS offenses. Oregon’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 7.9% of attempts this season — 32nd-worst among FBS defenses.

Illinois’s WRs has gained 1,258 yards on 86 receptions (14.6 YPR) this season — T-34th-best among FBS WRs. Oregon’s defense has allowed just 10.6 Yards Per Reception this season — T-24th-best among FBS defenses.

Oregon Offensive Stats & Trends

Oregon WRs have averaged 19.2 yards per reception (615 yards/32 catches) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 13.6

Oregon TEs have no touchdowns on 39 receptions this season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 10.1

Oregon Skill Players have averaged 15.8 yards per reception (898 yards/57 catches) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 12.6

Oregon Skill Players have caught 108 of 133 passes (81% Reception Pct) in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 61%

Oregon Skill Players have 83 receptions in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– most among Power Conference Teams

Illinois Fighting Illini Defensive Stats & Trends

Illinois has forced 10 fumbles this season– most in the Big Ten

Illinois has not tackled opponents for a loss on any of 14 rushing attempts on 3rd and short this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 10%.

Illinois has tackled opponents for a loss on just 25 of 235 rushing attempts (11% TFL%) this season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 17%.

Illinois has tackled opponents for a loss on just 1 of 33 rushing attempts (3% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 16%.

Illinois has tackled opponents for a loss on just 1 of 33 rushing attempts (3% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 13%.

Oregon Ducks Defensive Stats & Trends

Oregon opponents has averaged 50.5 Passing Attempts per TD (202 Pass Attempts/4 Passing TDs) this season– 6th-best in FBS; Average: 21.6

Oregon opponents has averaged 50.5 Passing Attempts per TD (202 Pass Attempts/4 Passing TDs) this season– 5th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 23.2

Oregon tackled opponents for a loss on 12 of 44 rushing attempts (27% TFL%) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 15%.

Oregon has allowed 4 touchdowns on 116 completions (29.0 Completions Per TD) this season– 6th-best in FBS; Average: 13.1

Oregon tackled opponents for a loss on 12 of 44 rushing attempts (27% TFL%) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 15%.