Illinois vs. Nebraska: Prediction, Pick, Odds Preview

For the second straight week, the NCAA football odds market is dishing out a weeknight matchup of undefeated Top 25 teams.

That’s because Nebraska and Illinois are opening Big Ten play on Friday night, and the stakes are pretty high for a September contest. 

Illinois vs. Nebraska Odds

• Point Spread: Illinois -9
• Moneyline: Nebraska -350  |  Illinois +260
• Over/Under: 43.5

Illinois vs. Nebraska Preview

FOX probably didn’t know what it was getting when it got the broadcast rights for Friday’s Illinois vs. Nebraska showdown. 

Nebraska and Illinois have combined for one winning season (Illinois ‘22) in the last five years, yet both teams are 3-0 and ranked in the AP Top 25 heading into Week 4. 

Nebraska profiles as the team with the higher ceiling here, which is why the college football odds market leans toward the Cornhuskers in this game. They have 17 starters back, plus an effective freshman quarterback in Dylan Raiola. Head coach Matt Rhule has seen similar jumps from his previous collegiate teams in Year 2. 

Illinois is returning to some of the strong, physical play that earned it eight wins in 2022. Head coach Bret Bielema lost a lot of offensive linemen from last year’s team, but made effective use of the transfer portal and brought in a group that is arguably better than the 2023 squad. 

Both teams will want to run the ball, which is why this total is so low. With explosive plays limited and possessions at a premium, the team that makes the most of its trips into plus territory will be the one to remain undefeated.

It’s unlikely that either of these teams will win the Big Ten this year, but the winner of this game could certainly remain relevant in the College Football Playoff picture. Obviously, that would be a huge win for either program. 

Illinois vs. Nebraska Prediction

I am predicting a Nebraska win on Friday night but a cover for the Illinois +9 side. 

Nine points in a low-total game like this can be valuable, and I believe Illinois is the best team Nebraska will have faced thus far. 

The market may also suffer from some exposure bias, as Nebraska’s beatdown of a deeply flawed Colorado team is potentially the biggest reference point that both teams have.

Raiola is quite good for the Cornhuskers, but he also lacks the consistent explosiveness and playmaking ability that might lead to a big blowout win against a physical conference opponent. 

I think Nebraska is the better team and could be a fringe playoff contender, but I’ll take the points with Illinois here. I think this game will be competitive. 

Illinois vs. Nebraska Pick: Illinois +9