Kent State vs Pitt Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NCAAF, Week 1

Pittsburgh wide receiver Daejon Reynolds (3) tries to make a catch during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Notre Dame Saturday, Oct. 28, 2023, in South Bend, Ind. (AP Photo/Michael Caterina)
(AP Photo/Michael Caterina)
  • Pitt is a -23.5 point favorite vs. Kent State
  • Kent State vs. Pittsburgh Total(Over/Under): 55.5 points
  • TV Channel: ESPNU

The Kent State Golden Flashes 0-0 visit Acrisure Stadium to take on the Pittsburgh Panthers 0-0 on Aug. 31 in Pittsburgh, PA. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EDT.

Pitt is a betting favorite in Week 1, with the spread sitting at -23.5 (-115).

The Kent State vs. Pittsburgh Over/Under is 55.5 total points.

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Kent State vs. Pittsburgh Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Kent State+23.5 -10555.5 -110+1100
Pittsburgh -23.5 -11555.5 -110-2500

Kent State vs Pittsburgh Prediction:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Pittsburgh will win this game with 95.0% confidence.

Kent State vs Pittsburgh Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Kent State will cover the spread with 55.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Kent State and Pitt, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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  • Kent State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 2 of their last 4 games (+5.10 Units / 127% ROI)
  • Kent State has hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Kent State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.85 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Kent State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 3 of their last 4 games (+1.90 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Pittsburgh has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+5.05 Units / 75% ROI)
  • Pittsburgh have covered the 1H Spread in their last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 90% ROI)
  • Pittsburgh has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.00 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Pittsburgh has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Pittsburgh have covered the Spread in their last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 91% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Kent State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Kent State Player Prop Bets Today

  • Gavin Garcia has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Chrishon McCray has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Pittsburgh players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Pittsburgh Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Rodney Hammond Jr. has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Daejon Reynolds has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 75% ROI)
  • Konata Mumpfield has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Gavin Bartholomew has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Kent State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Kent State was 2-8 against the spread last college football season (-6.8 Units / -56.2% ROI).

  • Kent State was 0-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -10 Units / -100% ROI
  • Kent State was 7-4 when betting the Over for +2.6 Units / 21.49% ROI
  • Kent State was 4-7 when betting the Under for -3.7 Units / -30.58% ROI

Pittsburgh Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Pitt is 4-8 against the spread this college football season (-4.85 Units / -36.6% ROI).

  • Pittsburgh was 2-9 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.75 Units / -60.76% ROI
  • Pittsburgh was 8-4 when betting the Over for +3.6 Units / 27.27% ROI
  • Pittsburgh was 4-8 when betting the Under for -4.8 Units / -36.36% ROI

Kent State: Keys to the Game vs. Pittsburgh

Kent State was winless (0-8) when their opponent committed less than 60 yards in penalties in the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .505

Kent State is 2-13 (.133) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2022 season– T-8th-worst in FBS; Average: .497

Kent State is 2-17 (.105) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush since the 2022 season– T-3rd-worst in FBS; Average: .398

Kent State was winless (0-9) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities in the 2023 season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .324

Pittsburgh: Keys to the Game vs. Kent State

Pittsburgh was winless (0-3) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team in the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .497

Pittsburgh was 1-9 (.091) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush in the 2023 season– T-5th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .385

Pittsburgh is 2-6 (.222) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game since the 2022 season– T-28th-worst in FBS; Average: .407

Pittsburgh is 4-13 (.235) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2022 season– T-30th-worst in FBS; Average: .409

Matchup Notes for Kent State vs. Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh’s TEs gained 558 yards on 38 receptions (14.7 YPR) last season — best among ACC TEs. Kent State’s defense allowed 14.0 Yards Per Reception last season — 8th-worst among FBS defenses.

Pittsburgh gained 2,471 yards on 189 receptions (13.1 YPR) last season — T-best among ACC skill players. Kent State’s defense allowed 14.0 Yards Per Reception last season — 8th-worst among FBS defenses.

Pittsburgh gained 2,471 yards on 189 receptions (13.1 YPR) last season — T-29th-best among FBS skill players. Kent State’s defense allowed 14.0 Yards Per Reception last season — 8th-worst among FBS defenses.

Kent State’s QBs threw for 1,966 passing yards in 12 games (just 163.8 YPG) last season — 14th-worst among FBS teams. Pittsburgh’s defense allowed just 200.6 passing yards per game last season — 4th-best among ACC defenses.

Kent State’s QBs threw for 1,966 passing yards in 12 games (just 163.8 YPG) last season — 14th-worst among FBS teams. Pittsburgh’s defense allowed just 200.6 passing yards per game last season — 31st-best among FBS defenses.

Kent State’s offense threw for 1,966 passing yards in 12 games (just 163.8 YPG) last season — 13th-worst among FBS offenses. Pittsburgh’s defense allowed just 200.6 passing yards per game last season — 31st-best among FBS defenses.

Kent State Offensive Stats & Trends

Kent State’s QBs threw for 1,966 passing yards in 12 games (just 163.8 YPG) last season — 14th-worst among FBS teams. Pittsburgh’s defense allowed just 200.6 passing yards per game last season — 4th-best among ACC defenses.

Kent State’s QBs threw for 1,966 passing yards in 12 games (just 163.8 YPG) last season — 14th-worst among FBS teams. Pittsburgh’s defense allowed just 200.6 passing yards per game last season — 31st-best among FBS defenses.

Kent State’s offense threw for 1,966 passing yards in 12 games (just 163.8 YPG) last season — 13th-worst among FBS offenses. Pittsburgh’s defense allowed just 200.6 passing yards per game last season — 31st-best among FBS defenses.

Kent State’s offense threw for 20 or more yards on just 7.5% of 305 attempts last season — T-14th-worst among FBS offenses. Pittsburgh’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 12.4% of attempts last season — 2nd-best among ACC defenses.

Kent State’s offense threw for 20 or more yards on just 7.5% of 305 attempts last season — T-14th-worst among FBS offenses. Pittsburgh’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 12.4% of attempts last season — 19th-best among FBS defenses.

Pittsburgh Offensive Stats & Trends

Pittsburgh’s TEs gained 558 yards on 38 receptions (14.7 YPR) last season — best among ACC TEs. Kent State’s defense allowed 14.0 Yards Per Reception last season — 8th-worst among FBS defenses.

Pittsburgh WRs have fumbled 5 times in the 4th quarter since the 2022 season– T-most among FBS Teams

Pittsburgh gained 2,471 yards on 189 receptions (13.1 YPR) last season — T-best among ACC skill players. Kent State’s defense allowed 14.0 Yards Per Reception last season — 8th-worst among FBS defenses.

Pittsburgh gained 2,471 yards on 189 receptions (13.1 YPR) last season — T-29th-best among FBS skill players. Kent State’s defense allowed 14.0 Yards Per Reception last season — 8th-worst among FBS defenses.

Pittsburgh gained 2,471 yards on 189 receptions (13.1 YPR) last season — T-29th-best among FBS skill players. Kent State’s defense allowed 14.0 Yards Per Reception last season — 5th-worst among NonP5 defenses.

Kent State Golden Flashes Defensive Stats & Trends

Kent State averaged a sack every 26.2 pass attempts (314 Pass Attempts/12 Sacks) in the 2023 season– 5th-worst in FBS; Average: 14.3

Kent State forced 5 fumbles on 460 carries (92.0 Carries Per Fumble) in the 2023 season– 3rd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 41.2

Kent State forced 5 fumbles on 460 carries (92.0 Carries Per Fumble) in the 2023 season– 7th-worst in FBS; Average: 41.0

Kent State sacked opposing QBs on just 4% of pass attempts (12/314) in the 2023 season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%

Kent State sacked opposing QBs on just 4% of pass attempts (12/314) in the 2023 season– T-4th-worst in FBS; Average: 7%

Pittsburgh Panthers Defensive Stats & Trends

Pittsburgh allowed passes of 20+ yards on 10 of 47 attempts (21%) on 3rd and long in the 2023 season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 9%

Pittsburgh allowed passes of 20+ yards on 10 of 47 attempts (21%) on 3rd and long in the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: 9%

Pittsburgh has sacked opposing QBs on 10% of pass attempts (77/765) since the 2022 season– 4th-best in FBS; Average: 7%

Pittsburgh has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 18 of 113 attempts (16%) on 3rd and long since the 2022 season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 9%

Pittsburgh allowed 10.3 Yards per Attempt (484 yards/47 attempts) on 3rd and long in the 2023 season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 6.7


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