Louisville vs Clemson Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 10

BetMGM Betting Nov 01, 2024, 3:23 PM

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Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik (2) runs with the ball during an NCAA college football game against Louisiana Tech Saturday, Sept. 17, 2022, in Clemson, S.C. (AP Photo/Jacob Kupferman)

(AP Photo/Jacob Kupferman)

Clemson is a -10.5 point favorite vs. Louisville
Louisville vs. Clemson Total (Over/Under): 61.5 points
TV Channel: ESPN

The Louisville Cardinals (5-3) visit Memorial Stadium to take on the Clemson Tigers (6-1) on Nov. 2 in Clemson, SC. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EDT.

Clemson is a betting favorite in Week 10, with the spread sitting at -10.5 (-110).

The Louisville vs. Clemson Over/Under is 61.5 total points.

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Louisville vs. Clemson Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Louisville	+10.5 -110	61.5 -110	+325
Clemson	-10.5 -110	61.5 -110	-450

Louisville vs Clemson Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Clemson will win this game with 79.5% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Louisville and Clemson, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Louisville vs Clemson Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Clemson will cover the spread with 64.2% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Louisville Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Louisville has hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.60 Units / 36% ROI)
Louisville has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 3 of their last 6 away games (+0.90 Units / 13% ROI)

Clemson Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Clemson has hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 12 games (+10.50 Units / 12% ROI)
Clemson has hit the 1H Moneyline in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.60 Units / 13% ROI)
Clemson have covered the 1H Spread in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.75 Units / 44% ROI)
Clemson have covered the Spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.90 Units / 64% ROI)
Clemson has hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.80 Units / 36% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Louisville players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Louisville Player Prop Bets Today

Ja’Corey Brooks has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 85% ROI)
Ja’Corey Brooks has hit the Receptions Over in his last game (+1.15 Units / 115% ROI)
Isaac Brown has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Chris Bell has hit the Receptions Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 80% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Clemson players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Clemson Player Prop Best Bets Today

Jake Briningstool has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Cade Klubnik has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 41% ROI)
Phil Mafah has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Antonio Williams has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Tyler Brown has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 80% ROI)

Louisville Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Louisville is 3-5 against the spread this college football season (-2.55 Units / -28.81% ROI).

Louisville is 4-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.6 Units / -0.76% ROI
Louisville is 6-2 when betting the Over for +3.8 Units / 43.18% ROI
Louisville is 2-6 when betting the Under for -4.6 Units / -52.27% ROI

Clemson Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Clemson is 4-3 against the spread this college football season (+0.7 Units / 9.15% ROI).

Clemson is 6-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +5 Units / 6.58% ROI
Clemson is 3-3 when betting the Over for -0.3 Units / -3.9% ROI
Clemson is 3-3 when betting the Under for -0.3 Units / -3.9% ROI

Louisville: Keys to the Game vs. Clemson

Louisville is 7-2 (.778) when forcing at least one fumble since the 2023 season– T-38th-best in FBS; Average: .625

Louisville is 10-2 (.833) when intercepting at least 1 pass since the 2023 season– T-26th-best in FBS; Average: .674

Louisville is 14-5 (.737) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season– T-36th-best in FBS; Average: .628

Louisville is 13-6 (.684) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times since the 2023 season– 38th-best in FBS; Average: .585

Clemson: Keys to the Game vs. Louisville

Clemson is undefeated (6-0) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times this season– T-best in FBS; Average: .596

Clemson is undefeated (6-0) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times this season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .662

Clemson is 8-3 (.727) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-26th-best in FBS; Average: .538

Clemson is 8-4 (.667) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– T-12th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .485

Matchup Notes for Louisville vs. Clemson

Clemson’s TEs have 67.7 receiving yards per game this season — 4th-best among ACC TEs. Louisville’s defense has allowed 44.1 receiving yards per game to TEs this season — 31st-worst among FBS defenses.

Clemson’s RBs has rushed for 1,003 yards on 174 carries (5.8 YPC) this season — T-26th-best among FBS RBs. Louisville’s defense have allowed just 3.8 YPC to RBs this season — T-8th-best among FBS defenses.

Clemson’s RBs have just 10.1 receiving yards per game this season — 9th-worst among FBS RBs. Louisville’s defense has allowed 30.0 receiving yards per game to RBs this season — 34th-worst among FBS defenses.

Louisville has 2.5 receiving touchdowns per game this season — 5th-best among ACC skill players. Clemson’s defense has allowed 2.1 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-2nd-worst among ACC defenses.

Louisville’s offense has averaged 2.5 passing TDs per game this season — T-10th-best among FBS offenses. Clemson’s defense has allowed 2.1 passing TDs per game this season — T-11th-worst among FBS defenses.

Louisville Offensive Stats & Trends

Louisville’s TEs has 37 receptions in 8 games (4.6 per game) this season — 5th-best among ACC TEs. Clemson’s defense has allowed 4.2 receptions per game to TEs this season — T-17th-worst among FBS defenses.

Louisville’s TEs has 0.8 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-4th-best among ACC TEs. Clemson’s defense has allowed 2.1 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-2nd-worst among ACC defenses.

Clemson Offensive Stats & Trends

Clemson RBs have averaged 13.6 yards from scrimmage per touch (163 yards / 12 touches) on 3rd and short this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 4.5

Clemson RBs have averaged 10.0 yards from scrimmage per touch (200 yards / 20 touches) on 3rd down this season– T-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.7

Clemson Skill Players have averaged just 9.2 yards per reception (646 yards/70 catches) in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 12.3

Clemson TEs have been targeted 31 times in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-5th-most among FBS Teams

Clemson Skill Players have averaged just 9.1 yards per reception (172 yards/19 catches) in the 4th quarter this season– 4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 12.2

Louisville Cardinals Defensive Stats & Trends

Louisville has allowed 6.0 touchdowns per interception (12 TDs allowed, and 2 INT) this season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 1.4

Louisville has intercepted 2 of 241 attempts (120.5 pass attempts per int.) this season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 33.2

Louisville has intercepted 2 of 241 attempts (120.5 pass attempts per int.) this season– 3rd-worst in FBS; Average: 35.6

Louisville has allowed 6.0 touchdowns per interception (12 TDs allowed, and 2 INT) this season– T-7th-worst in FBS; Average: 1.7

Louisville has allowed a Completion Pct of just 36% (10 completions/28 attempts) on 3rd and long this season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 54%

Clemson Tigers Defensive Stats & Trends

Clemson has allowed 8.0 yards from scrimmage per touch (366 yards / 46 touches) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– 4th-worst in FBS; Average: 5.2

Clemson has allowed a Completion Pct of just 20% (1 completions/5 attempts) on 3rd and short this season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 60%

Clemson has allowed a Completion Pct of just 51% (123 completions/242 attempts) on 1st down since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 63%

Clemson has not allowed a first down on a pass on 3rd and short this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 49%

Clemson has allowed a Completion Pct of just 54% (344 completions/637 attempts) since the 2023 season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 61%