- The Louisville is a -7 point favorite vs. Virginia
- The Louisville vs. Virginia Total (Over/Under): 54.5 points
- TV Channel: ACCN
The Louisville Cardinals (3-2) visit David A. Harrison III Field at Scott Stadium to take on the Virginia Cavaliers (4-1) on Oct. 12 in Charlottesville, VA. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EDT.
Louisville is a betting favorite in Week 7, with the spread sitting at -7 (-110).
The Louisville vs. Virginia Over/Under is 54.5 total points.
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Louisville vs. Virginia Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Louisville | -7 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -275 |
| Virginia | +7 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +225 |
Louisville vs Virginia Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Louisville will win this game with 69.2% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Louisville and Virginia, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Louisville vs Virginia Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Virginia will cover the spread with 51.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Louisville Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Louisville has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 games (+5.00 Units / 21% ROI)
- Louisville have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.85 Units / 32% ROI)
- Louisville has hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.10 Units / 6% ROI)
- Louisville has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.60 Units / 21% ROI)
- Louisville has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 3 of their last 4 away games (+2.00 Units / 46% ROI)
Virginia Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Virginia has hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 9 games (+9.15 Units / 44% ROI)
- Virginia has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games (+6.85 Units / 79% ROI)
- Virginia has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in their last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 87% ROI)
- Virginia has hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games (+3.80 Units / 38% ROI)
- Virginia have covered the 1Q Spread in 3 of their last 4 games at home (+2.15 Units / 43% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Virginia players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Virginia Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Tony Muskett has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Malachi Fields has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Kobe Pace has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Tony Muskett has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 47% ROI)
Louisville Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Louisville is 3-0 against the spread this college football season (+3 Units / 67.42% ROI).
- Louisville is 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 22.47% ROI
- Louisville is 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 20.45% ROI
- Louisville is 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -27.27% ROI
Virginia Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Virginia is 1-1 against the spread this college football season (-0.1 Units / -2.27% ROI).
- Virginia is 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.65 Units / 4% ROI
- Virginia is 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -27.27% ROI
- Virginia is 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 20.45% ROI
Louisville: Keys to the Game vs. Virginia
Louisville is 12-4 (.750) when making 7 or more explosive plays since the 2023 season– T-36th-best in FBS; Average: .649
Louisville is 12-1 (.923) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2023 season– T-6th-best in FBS; Average: .646
Louisville is 11-4 (.733) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-25th-best in FBS; Average: .543
Louisville is 10-5 (.667) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– T-32nd-best in FBS; Average: .534
Virginia: Keys to the Game vs. Louisville
Virginia is 1-7 (.125) when not forcing a fumble since the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .537
Virginia is 1-7 (.125) when not forcing a fumble since the 2023 season– T-5th-worst in FBS; Average: .485
Virginia is 3-8 (.273) when allowing 7 or more explosive plays since the 2023 season– T-38th-worst in FBS; Average: .414
Virginia is 6-10 (.375) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards since the 2023 season– T-13th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .542
Matchup Notes for Louisville vs. Virginia
Virginia’s TEs has gained 228 yards on 17 receptions (13.4 YPR) this season — 4th-best among ACC TEs. Louisville’s defense has allowed 13.0 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — T-29th-worst among FBS defenses.
Virginia’s WRs has 265 receptions in 17 games (15.6 per game) since the 2023 season — 2nd-best among ACC WRs. Louisville’s defense has allowed just 16.9 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 26th-best among FBS defenses.
Virginia’s TEs has gained 228 yards on 17 receptions (13.4 YPR) this season — 4th-best among ACC TEs. Louisville’s defense has allowed just 11.0 Yards Per Reception this season — T-3rd-best among ACC defenses.
Louisville’s offense has thrown for 1,517 passing yards in 5 games (303.4 YPG) this season — 14th-best among FBS offenses. Virginia’s defense has allowed 266.4 passing yards per game this season — 16th-worst among FBS defenses.
Louisville’s offense has thrown for 1,517 passing yards in 5 games (303.4 YPG) this season — 14th-best among FBS offenses. Virginia’s defense has allowed 266.4 passing yards per game this season — 3rd-worst among ACC defenses.
Louisville’s RBs has rushed for 3,136 yards on 513 carries (6.1 YPC) since the 2023 season — T-5th-best among FBS RBs. Virginia’s defense have allowed 4.6 YPC since the 2023 season — T-27th-worst among FBS defenses.
Louisville Offensive Stats & Trends
Louisville’s offense has thrown for 1,517 passing yards in 5 games (303.4 YPG) this season — 14th-best among FBS offenses. Virginia’s defense has allowed 266.4 passing yards per game this season — 16th-worst among FBS defenses.
Louisville’s offense has thrown for 1,517 passing yards in 5 games (303.4 YPG) this season — 14th-best among FBS offenses. Virginia’s defense has allowed 266.4 passing yards per game this season — 3rd-worst among ACC defenses.
Louisville’s RBs has rushed for 3,136 yards on 513 carries (6.1 YPC) since the 2023 season — T-5th-best among FBS RBs. Virginia’s defense have allowed 4.6 YPC since the 2023 season — T-27th-worst among FBS defenses.
Louisville’s TEs has 22 receptions in 5 games (4.4 per game) this season — T-5th-best among ACC TEs. Virginia’s defense has allowed 21.2 receptions per game this season — T-25th-worst among FBS defenses.
Louisville WRs have averaged 29.2 yards per reception (234 yards/8 catches) on 3rd and long this season– 4th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 15.3
Virginia Offensive Stats & Trends
Virginia’s TEs has gained 228 yards on 17 receptions (13.4 YPR) this season — 4th-best among ACC TEs. Louisville’s defense has allowed 13.0 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — T-29th-worst among FBS defenses.
Virginia’s WRs has 265 receptions in 17 games (15.6 per game) since the 2023 season — 2nd-best among ACC WRs. Louisville’s defense has allowed just 16.9 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 26th-best among FBS defenses.
Virginia’s TEs has gained 228 yards on 17 receptions (13.4 YPR) this season — 4th-best among ACC TEs. Louisville’s defense has allowed just 11.0 Yards Per Reception this season — T-3rd-best among ACC defenses.
Virginia’s WRs has 265 receptions in 17 games (15.6 per game) since the 2023 season — 2nd-best among ACC WRs. Louisville’s defense has allowed just 16.9 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 4th-best among ACC defenses.
Virginia’s WRs has 265 receptions in 17 games (15.6 per game) since the 2023 season — T-27th-best among FBS WRs. Louisville’s defense has allowed just 16.9 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 26th-best among FBS defenses.
Louisville Cardinals Defensive Stats & Trends
Louisville has allowed a Completion Pct of just 41% (26 completions/63 attempts) in close and late situations since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 58%
Louisville has allowed a Completion Pct of just 36% (5 completions/14 attempts) on 3rd and long this season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 55%
Louisville has allowed opponents to catch just 5 of 14 passes (36% Reception Pct) on 3rd and long this season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 56%
Louisville has allowed a Completion Pct of just 41% (26 completions/63 attempts) in close and late situations since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 58%
Louisville has allowed 63.0 yards from scrimmage per game to RBs this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 126.2
Virginia Cavaliers Defensive Stats & Trends
Virginia has sacked opposing QBs on just 4% of pass attempts (23/548) since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%
Virginia has sacked opposing QBs on just 4% of pass attempts (23/548) since the 2023 season– T-3rd-worst in FBS; Average: 7%
Virginia sacked opposing QBs on just 3% of pass attempts (11/377) in the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%
Virginia has averaged a sack every 23.8 pass attempts (548 Pass Attempts/23 Sacks) since the 2023 season– T-3rd-worst in FBS; Average: 14.4
Virginia averaged a sack every 34.3 pass attempts (377 Pass Attempts/11 Sacks) in the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 13.8
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