Michigan State vs Oregon Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 6

BetMGM Betting Oct 04, 2024, 11:50 AM

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FILE - Oregon coach Dan Lanning reacts to a play against BYU during the first half of an NCAA college football game Sept. 17, 2022, in Eugene, Ore. Oregon and head coach Dan Lanning have agreed to a contract extension that will extend his deal through the 2028 season. The Oregon Board of Trustees unanimously approved the terms of the contract Thursday, July 27, 2023. Lanning’s new deal will pay him a total of $45 million in base salary over six years. (AP Photo/Andy Nelson, File)

(AP Photo/Andy Nelson)

The Oregon is a -24 point favorite vs. Michigan State
The Michigan State vs. Oregon Total(Over/Under): 52.5 points
TV Channel: FOX

The Michigan State Spartans (3-2) visit Autzen Stadium to take on the Oregon Ducks (4-0) on Oct. 4 in Eugene, OR. Kickoff is scheduled for 9:00pm EDT.

Oregon is a betting favorite in Week 6, with the spread sitting at -24 (-115).

The Michigan State vs. Oregon Over/Under is 52.5 total points.

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Michigan State vs. Oregon Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Michigan State	+24 -105	52.5 -110	+1200
Oregon	-24 -115	52.5 -110	-3000

Michigan State vs Oregon Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Oregon will win this game with 95.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Michigan State and Oregon, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Michigan State vs Oregon Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Michigan State will cover the spread with 55.7% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Michigan State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Michigan State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 3 of their last 4 away games (+3.75 Units / 94% ROI)
Michigan State have covered the 1H Spread in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.55 Units / 25% ROI)
Michigan State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 games (+2.00 Units / 19% ROI)
Michigan State has hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 9 games (+1.55 Units / 12% ROI)
Michigan State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 3 of their last 5 away games (+1.05 Units / 19% ROI)

Oregon Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Oregon has hit the Moneyline in their last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 9% ROI)
Oregon has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+2.00 Units / 27% ROI)
Oregon has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.90 Units / 28% ROI)
Oregon has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+0.70 Units / 9% ROI)
Oregon have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 13 games (+0.40 Units / 3% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Michigan State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Michigan State Player Prop Bets Today

Nathan Carter has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Oregon players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Oregon Player Prop Best Bets Today

Tez Johnson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 61% ROI)
Terrance Ferguson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 80% ROI)
Traeshon Holden has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Michigan State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Michigan State is 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.2 Units / -21.82% ROI).

Michigan State is 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.65 Units / 45.63% ROI
Michigan State is 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.25 Units / -22.52% ROI
Michigan State is 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 16.51% ROI

Oregon Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Oregon is 1-3 against the spread this college football season (-2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI).

Oregon is 3-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +3 Units / 7.45% ROI
Oregon is 2-2 when betting the Over for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI
Oregon is 2-2 when betting the Under for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI

Michigan State: Keys to the Game vs. Oregon

Michigan State is undefeated (5-0) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .506

Michigan State is undefeated (5-0) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .535

Michigan State is undefeated (6-0) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .762

Michigan State is undefeated (7-0) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .647

Oregon: Keys to the Game vs. Michigan State

Oregon is 16-1 (.941) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .654

Oregon is 15-2 (.882) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– T-7th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .670

Oregon is 8-2 (.800) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– T-13th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .603

Oregon is 16-1 (.941) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times since the 2023 season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: .595

Matchup Notes for Michigan State vs. Oregon

Oregon’s WRs has 309 receptions in 18 games (17.2 per game) since the 2023 season — 3rd-best among Big Ten WRs. Michigan State’s defense has allowed just 11.5 receptions per game to WRs since the 2023 season — T-35th-best among FBS defenses.

Oregon’s TEs has 31 receptions in 4 games (7.8 per game) this season — best among Big Ten TEs. Michigan State’s defense has allowed just 2.0 receptions per game to TEs this season — T-22nd-best among FBS defenses.

Oregon’s WRs has 309 receptions in 18 games (17.2 per game) since the 2023 season — 3rd-best among Big Ten WRs. Michigan State’s defense has allowed 4.2 receptions per game to TEs since the 2023 season — 8th-worst among FBS defenses.

Michigan State’s TEs has gained 265 yards on 21 receptions (12.6 YPR) this season — T-2nd-best among Big Ten TEs. Oregon’s defense has allowed 12.9 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — 29th-worst among FBS defenses.

Michigan State has gained 1,175 yards on 86 receptions (13.7 YPR) this season — 4th-best among Big Ten skill players. Oregon’s defense has allowed just 9.7 Yards Per Reception this season — T-5th-best among Big Ten defenses.

Michigan State Offensive Stats & Trends

Michigan State’s WRs has gained 857 yards on 58 receptions (14.8 YPR) this season — 5th-best among Big Ten WRs. Oregon’s defense has allowed just 9.3 Yards Per Reception to WRs this season — 4th-best among FBS defenses.

Michigan State’s TEs has gained 265 yards on 21 receptions (12.6 YPR) this season — T-2nd-best among Big Ten TEs. Oregon’s defense has allowed just 9.7 Yards Per Reception this season — T-5th-best among Big Ten defenses.

Oregon Offensive Stats & Trends

Oregon Skill Players have averaged 23.7 yards per reception (166 yards/7 catches) on 3rd and long this season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 12.5

Oregon TEs have 12 receptions in the 4th quarter this season– most among Big Ten Teams

Oregon TEs have 21 receptions in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-most among Big Ten Teams

Oregon TEs have 21 receptions in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-most among Power Conference Teams

Michigan State Spartans Defensive Stats & Trends

Michigan State has tackled opponents for a loss on 2 of 13 rushing attempts (15% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– 2nd-best in the Big Ten; Average: 6%.

Michigan State did not record a sack (40 pass attempts) last week– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.2

Michigan State has tackled opponents for a loss on 2 of 13 rushing attempts (15% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– T-34th-best in FBS; Average: 11%.

Michigan State has sacked opponents 8 times in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-3rd-most in FBS

Michigan State did not sack opposing QBs on any of 40 pass attempts last week– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%

Oregon Ducks Defensive Stats & Trends

Oregon allowed no passing TDs (24 pass attempts) last week– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 17.3

Oregon allowed no passing TDs (24 pass attempts) last week– T-best in the Big Ten; Average: 19.7

Oregon opponents has averaged 63.0 Passing Attempts per TD (126 Pass Attempts/2 Passing TDs) this season– 8th-best in FBS; Average: 21.8

Oregon did not allow any touchdowns on 13 completions last week– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10.6

Oregon tackled opponents for a loss on 12 of 44 rushing attempts (27% TFL%) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 15%.