- The Michigan is a -9.5 point favorite vs. Minnesota
- The Minnesota vs. Michigan Total(Over/Under): 35.5 points
- TV Channel: FOX
The Minnesota Golden Gophers (2-2) visit Michigan Stadium to take on the Michigan Wolverines (3-1) on Sep. 28 in Ann Arbor, MI. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EDT.
Michigan is a betting favorite in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -9.5 (-105).
The Minnesota vs. Michigan Over/Under is 35.5 total points.
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Minnesota vs. Michigan Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Minnesota | +9.5 -115 | 35.5 -110 | +275 |
| Michigan | -9.5 -105 | 35.5 -110 | -350 |
Minnesota vs Michigan Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Michigan will win this game with 75.2% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Minnesota and Michigan, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Minnesota vs Michigan Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Michigan will cover the spread with 72.5% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Minnesota Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Minnesota have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.65 Units / 18% ROI)
- Minnesota has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 2 of their last 3 away games (+1.00 Units / 32% ROI)
- Minnesota has hit the Game Total Under in 2 of their last 3 away games (+0.90 Units / 27% ROI)
- Minnesota has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 2 of their last 3 away games (+0.80 Units / 23% ROI)
Michigan Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Michigan has hit the 1H Moneyline in 12 of their last 13 games (+11.00 Units / 12% ROI)
- Michigan has hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 13 games (+11.00 Units / 2% ROI)
- Michigan have covered the 1Q Spread in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.90 Units / 37% ROI)
- Michigan have covered the Spread in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.55 Units / 23% ROI)
- Michigan has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 14 games (+3.55 Units / 23% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Minnesota players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Minnesota Player Prop Bets Today
- Daniel Jackson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Max Brosmer has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Jordan Nubin has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Max Brosmer has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 45% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Michigan players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Michigan Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Donovan Edwards has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 82% ROI)
- Donovan Edwards has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+3.45 Units / 35% ROI)
- Colston Loveland has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 4 of his last 5 games at home (+2.75 Units / 45% ROI)
- Colston Loveland has hit the Receptions Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 56% ROI)
Minnesota Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Minnesota is 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.9 Units / 20.45% ROI).
Michigan Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Michigan is 0-3 against the spread this college football season (-3.25 Units / -74.71% ROI).
Minnesota: Keys to the Game vs. Michigan
Minnesota is 1-8 (.111) when allowing 7 or more explosive plays since the 2023 season– T-2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .466
Minnesota is 2-8 (.200) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .518
Minnesota is 1-8 (.111) when allowing 7 or more explosive plays since the 2023 season– T-10th-worst in FBS; Average: .413
Minnesota is 3-8 (.273) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– T-26th-worst in FBS; Average: .463
Michigan: Keys to the Game vs. Minnesota
Michigan is undefeated (10-0) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: .547
Michigan is undefeated (18-0) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2023 season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .697
Michigan is undefeated (12-0) when making 7 or more explosive plays since the 2023 season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .700
Michigan is undefeated (10-0) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .622
Matchup Notes for Minnesota vs. Michigan
Michigan has gained 491 yards on 58 receptions (just 8.5 YPR) this season — 2nd-worst among FBS skill players. Minnesota’s defense has allowed just 7.5 Yards Per Reception this season — 5th-best among FBS defenses.
Michigan’s QBs has thrown for 491 passing yards in 4 games (just 122.8 YPG) this season — 7th-worst among FBS teams. Minnesota’s defense has allowed just 99.5 passing yards per game this season — best among Big Ten defenses.
Michigan’s WRs has gained 199 yards on 25 receptions (just 8.0 YPR) this season — worst among Big Ten WRs. Minnesota’s defense has allowed just 7.5 Yards Per Reception this season — 5th-best among FBS defenses.
Minnesota’s TEs has gained 87 yards on 10 receptions (just 8.7 YPR) this season — T-2nd-worst among Big Ten TEs. Michigan’s defense has allowed just 7.6 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — T-21st-best among FBS defenses.
Minnesota’s TEs has gained 87 yards on 10 receptions (just 8.7 YPR) this season — T-2nd-worst among Big Ten TEs. Michigan’s defense has allowed just 9.9 Yards Per Reception this season — T-25th-best among FBS defenses.
Minnesota’s RBs have 47.8 receiving yards per game this season — 9th-best among FBS RBs. Michigan’s defense has allowed 246.5 receiving yards per game this season — 3rd-worst among Big Ten defenses.
Minnesota Offensive Stats & Trends
Minnesota’s TEs has gained 87 yards on 10 receptions (just 8.7 YPR) this season — T-2nd-worst among Big Ten TEs. Michigan’s defense has allowed just 7.6 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — T-21st-best among FBS defenses.
Minnesota’s TEs has gained 87 yards on 10 receptions (just 8.7 YPR) this season — T-2nd-worst among Big Ten TEs. Michigan’s defense has allowed just 9.9 Yards Per Reception this season — T-25th-best among FBS defenses.
Minnesota RBs were targeted 5 times in the 1st quarter last week– T-most among FBS Teams
Minnesota’s RBs have 47.8 receiving yards per game this season — 9th-best among FBS RBs. Michigan’s defense has allowed 246.5 receiving yards per game this season — 3rd-worst among Big Ten defenses.
Minnesota’s RBs has 23 receptions in 4 games (5.8 per game) this season — T-7th-best among FBS RBs. Michigan’s defense has allowed 25.0 receptions per game this season — 2nd-worst among Big Ten defenses.
Michigan Offensive Stats & Trends
Michigan TEs have 10 receptions in the 4th quarter this season– T-most among FBS Teams
Michigan has gained 491 yards on 58 receptions (just 8.5 YPR) this season — 2nd-worst among FBS skill players. Minnesota’s defense has allowed just 7.5 Yards Per Reception this season — 5th-best among FBS defenses.
Michigan TEs have been targeted 13 times in the 4th quarter this season– most among FBS Teams
Michigan’s QBs has thrown for 491 passing yards in 4 games (just 122.8 YPG) this season — 7th-worst among FBS teams. Minnesota’s defense has allowed just 99.5 passing yards per game this season — best among Big Ten defenses.
Michigan TEs have 10 receptions in close and late situations this season– most among Power Conference Teams
Minnesota Golden Gophers Defensive Stats & Trends
Minnesota has not recorded a sack (42 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 13.5
Minnesota has allowed no passing TDs (94 pass attempts) this season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 26.5
Minnesota has allowed no passing TDs (94 pass attempts) this season– T-best in FBS; Average: 22.6
Minnesota has allowed no passing TDs (94 pass attempts) this season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 29.1
Minnesota has not recorded a sack (42 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 14.9
Michigan Wolverines Defensive Stats & Trends
Michigan has allowed 4 TDs in close and late situations this season– most among Power Conference Teams
Michigan has allowed 4 TDs in close and late situations this season– most in the Big Ten
Michigan opponents averaged 51.6 Passing Attempts per TD (413 Pass Attempts/8 Passing TDs) in the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 20.1
Michigan has allowed 10 rushing TDs on 550 carries (55 Carries Per TD) since the 2023 season– 6th-best in FBS; Average: 24.4
Michigan has allowed 4 TDs in close and late situations this season– T-most in FBS
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