Missouri vs Texas A&M Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 6

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Texas A&M quarterback Conner Weigman (15) looks to pass downfield against Auburn during the first quarter of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Sept. 23, 2023, in College Station, Texas. (AP Photo/Sam Craft)

(AP Photo/Sam Craft)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 04, 2024, 11:50 AM

The Texas A&M is a -2.5 point favorite vs. Missouri
The Missouri vs. Texas A&M Total (Over/Under): 48.5 points
TV Channel: ABC

The Missouri Tigers (4-0) visit Kyle Field to take on the Texas A&M Aggies (4-1) on Oct. 5 in College Station, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EDT.

Texas A&M is a betting favorite in Week 6, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-105).

The Missouri vs. Texas A&M Over/Under is 48.5 total points.

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Missouri vs. Texas A&M Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Missouri	+2.5 -115	48.5 -110	+110
Texas A&M	-2.5 -105	48.5 -110	-135

Missouri vs Texas A&M Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Texas A&M will win this game with 54.3% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Missouri and Texas A&M, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Missouri vs Texas A&M Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Texas A&M will cover the spread with 51.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Missouri Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Missouri has hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games (+6.60 Units / 35% ROI)
Missouri has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.75 Units / 26% ROI)
Missouri have covered the Spread in their last 4 away games (+4.00 Units / 91% ROI)
Missouri has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.85 Units / 34% ROI)
Missouri have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.70 Units / 33% ROI)

Texas A&M Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Texas A&M has hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+5.70 Units / 29% ROI)
Texas A&M have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.75 Units / 34% ROI)
Texas A&M has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+3.00 Units / 57% ROI)
Texas A&M has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 3 of their last 4 games at home (+1.75 Units / 34% ROI)
Texas A&M has hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 11 games (+0.50 Units / 4% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Missouri players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Missouri Player Prop Bets Today

Brady Cook has hit the TD Passes Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.25 Units / 52% ROI)
Luther Burden III has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.80 Units / 57% ROI)
Mookie Cooper has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Brady Cook has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last 4 away games (+4.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Theo Wease Jr. has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 3 of his last 4 away games (+1.80 Units / 38% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Texas A&M players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Texas A&M Player Prop Best Bets Today

Le’Veon Moss has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Moose Muhammad III has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 87% ROI)
Jahdae Walker has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Conner Weigman has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 62% ROI)
Jaylen Henderson has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 57% ROI)

Missouri Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Missouri is 1-1 against the spread this college football season (-0.05 Units / -1.54% ROI).

Missouri is 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 6.64% ROI
Missouri is 0-2 when betting the Over for -2.2 Units / -66.67% ROI
Missouri is 2-0 when betting the Under for +2 Units / 60.61% ROI

Texas A&M Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Texas A&M is 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.15 Units / -21.1% ROI).

Texas A&M is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.5 Units / -2.51% ROI
Texas A&M is 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 16.22% ROI
Texas A&M is 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.15 Units / -21.1% ROI

Missouri: Keys to the Game vs. Texas A&M

Missouri is 15-1 (.938) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: .618

Missouri is 13-1 (.929) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season– T-3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .668

Missouri is 7-1 (.875) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– 5th-best in FBS; Average: .441

Missouri is 9-1 (.900) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– 5th-best in FBS; Average: .535

Texas A&M: Keys to the Game vs. Missouri

Texas A&M is 2-6 (.250) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2023 season– 13th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .467

Texas A&M is 8-2 (.800) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes since the 2023 season– T-25th-best in FBS; Average: .628

Texas A&M is 1-6 (.143) when allowing 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-34th-worst in FBS; Average: .284

Texas A&M is 10-1 (.909) when making 3 or more explosive runs in a game since the 2023 season– 7th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .700

Matchup Notes for Missouri vs. Texas A&M

Texas A&M’s offense has thrown for 810 passing yards in 5 games (just 162.0 YPG) this season — T-18th-worst among FBS offenses. Missouri’s defense has allowed just 127.2 passing yards per game this season — 5th-best among FBS defenses.

Texas A&M’s TEs has 10 receptions in 5 games (just 2.0 per game) this season — T-2nd-worst among SEC TEs. Missouri’s defense has allowed just 10.8 receptions per game this season — best among SEC defenses.

Texas A&M’s TEs has 10 receptions in 5 games (just 2.0 per game) this season — T-2nd-worst among SEC TEs. Missouri’s defense has allowed just 10.8 receptions per game this season — 3rd-best among FBS defenses.

Missouri’s WRs has 275 receptions in 17 games (16.2 per game) since the 2023 season — T-20th-best among FBS WRs. Texas A&M’s defense has allowed just 17.1 receptions per game since the 2023 season — T-29th-best among FBS defenses.

Missouri’s RBs has rushed for 2,641 yards on 479 carries (5.5 YPC) since the 2023 season — T-28th-best among FBS RBs. Texas A&M’s defense have allowed just 3.6 YPC since the 2023 season — T-26th-best among FBS defenses.

Missouri’s RBs has rushed for 2,641 yards on 479 carries (5.5 YPC) since the 2023 season — T-28th-best among FBS RBs. Texas A&M’s defense have allowed just 4.3 YPC to RBs since the 2023 season — T-23rd-best among FBS defenses.

Missouri Offensive Stats & Trends

Missouri TEs have averaged just 5.3 yards per reception (58 yards/11 catches) this season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.4

Missouri TEs have averaged just 5.3 yards per reception (58 yards/11 catches) this season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 11.1

Texas A&M Offensive Stats & Trends

Texas A&M Skill Players have averaged just 8.3 yards per reception (91 yards/11 catches) in the 4th quarter this season– 2nd-worst among SEC Teams; Average: 14.4

Texas A&M QBs have 21 completions for 20 or more yards on 3rd down since the 2023 season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams

Missouri Tigers Defensive Stats & Trends

Missouri has allowed 7 rushing TDs on 69 carries (9.9 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 4.9

Missouri has tackled opponents for a loss on 4 of 9 rushing attempts (44% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 16%.

Missouri has tackled opponents for a loss on 17 of 69 rushing attempts (25% TFL%) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– best in the SEC; Average: 16%.

Missouri has allowed 9 rushing TDs on 550 carries (61.1 Carries Per TD) since the 2023 season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 27.2

Missouri has allowed 7 rushing TDs on 69 carries (9.9 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 4.6

Texas A&M Aggies Defensive Stats & Trends

Texas A&M tackled opponents for a loss on 6 of 19 rushing attempts (32% TFL%) on 3rd and short in the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11%.

Texas A&M has sacked opposing QBs just once on 43 pass attempts in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst in the SEC; Average: 13.6

Texas A&M has tackled opponents for a loss on 6 of 25 rushing attempts (24% TFL%) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– best in the SEC; Average: 10%.

Texas A&M has tackled opponents for a loss on 6 of 25 rushing attempts (24% TFL%) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– 4th-best in FBS; Average: 11%.

Texas A&M tackled opponents for a loss on 6 of 19 rushing attempts (32% TFL%) on 3rd and short in the 2023 season– best in the SEC; Average: 10%.

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