Missouri vs Texas A&M Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 6

BetMGM Betting Oct 04, 2024, 11:50 AM

min read

Texas A&M quarterback Conner Weigman (15) looks to pass downfield against Auburn during the first quarter of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Sept. 23, 2023, in College Station, Texas. (AP Photo/Sam Craft)

(AP Photo/Sam Craft)

The Texas A&M is a -2.5 point favorite vs. Missouri
The Missouri vs. Texas A&M Total (Over/Under): 48.5 points
TV Channel: ABC

The Missouri Tigers (4-0) visit Kyle Field to take on the Texas A&M Aggies (4-1) on Oct. 5 in College Station, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EDT.

Texas A&M is a betting favorite in Week 6, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-105).

The Missouri vs. Texas A&M Over/Under is 48.5 total points.

Bet now on Texas A&M vs Missouri & all NCAAF games with BetMGM

Missouri vs. Texas A&M Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Missouri	+2.5 -115	48.5 -110	+110
Texas A&M	-2.5 -105	48.5 -110	-135

Missouri vs Texas A&M Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Texas A&M will win this game with 54.3% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Missouri and Texas A&M, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Missouri vs Texas A&M Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Texas A&M will cover the spread with 51.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

Bet now on Texas A&M vs Missouri and all games with BetMGM

Get up to $1,500 First Bet Offer

Missouri Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Missouri has hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games (+6.60 Units / 35% ROI)
Missouri has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.75 Units / 26% ROI)
Missouri have covered the Spread in their last 4 away games (+4.00 Units / 91% ROI)
Missouri has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.85 Units / 34% ROI)
Missouri have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.70 Units / 33% ROI)

Texas A&M Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Texas A&M has hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+5.70 Units / 29% ROI)
Texas A&M have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.75 Units / 34% ROI)
Texas A&M has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+3.00 Units / 57% ROI)
Texas A&M has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 3 of their last 4 games at home (+1.75 Units / 34% ROI)
Texas A&M has hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 11 games (+0.50 Units / 4% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Missouri players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Missouri Player Prop Bets Today

Brady Cook has hit the TD Passes Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.25 Units / 52% ROI)
Luther Burden III has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.80 Units / 57% ROI)
Mookie Cooper has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Brady Cook has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last 4 away games (+4.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Theo Wease Jr. has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 3 of his last 4 away games (+1.80 Units / 38% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Texas A&M players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Texas A&M Player Prop Best Bets Today

Le’Veon Moss has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Moose Muhammad III has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 87% ROI)
Jahdae Walker has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Conner Weigman has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 62% ROI)
Jaylen Henderson has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 57% ROI)

Missouri Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Missouri is 1-1 against the spread this college football season (-0.05 Units / -1.54% ROI).

Missouri is 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 6.64% ROI
Missouri is 0-2 when betting the Over for -2.2 Units / -66.67% ROI
Missouri is 2-0 when betting the Under for +2 Units / 60.61% ROI

Texas A&M Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Texas A&M is 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.15 Units / -21.1% ROI).

Texas A&M is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.5 Units / -2.51% ROI
Texas A&M is 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 16.22% ROI
Texas A&M is 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.15 Units / -21.1% ROI

Missouri: Keys to the Game vs. Texas A&M

Missouri is 15-1 (.938) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: .618

Missouri is 13-1 (.929) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season– T-3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .668

Missouri is 7-1 (.875) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– 5th-best in FBS; Average: .441

Missouri is 9-1 (.900) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– 5th-best in FBS; Average: .535

Texas A&M: Keys to the Game vs. Missouri

Texas A&M is 2-6 (.250) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2023 season– 13th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .467

Texas A&M is 8-2 (.800) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes since the 2023 season– T-25th-best in FBS; Average: .628

Texas A&M is 1-6 (.143) when allowing 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-34th-worst in FBS; Average: .284

Texas A&M is 10-1 (.909) when making 3 or more explosive runs in a game since the 2023 season– 7th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .700

Matchup Notes for Missouri vs. Texas A&M

Texas A&M’s offense has thrown for 810 passing yards in 5 games (just 162.0 YPG) this season — T-18th-worst among FBS offenses. Missouri’s defense has allowed just 127.2 passing yards per game this season — 5th-best among FBS defenses.

Texas A&M’s TEs has 10 receptions in 5 games (just 2.0 per game) this season — T-2nd-worst among SEC TEs. Missouri’s defense has allowed just 10.8 receptions per game this season — best among SEC defenses.

Texas A&M’s TEs has 10 receptions in 5 games (just 2.0 per game) this season — T-2nd-worst among SEC TEs. Missouri’s defense has allowed just 10.8 receptions per game this season — 3rd-best among FBS defenses.

Missouri’s WRs has 275 receptions in 17 games (16.2 per game) since the 2023 season — T-20th-best among FBS WRs. Texas A&M’s defense has allowed just 17.1 receptions per game since the 2023 season — T-29th-best among FBS defenses.

Missouri’s RBs has rushed for 2,641 yards on 479 carries (5.5 YPC) since the 2023 season — T-28th-best among FBS RBs. Texas A&M’s defense have allowed just 3.6 YPC since the 2023 season — T-26th-best among FBS defenses.

Missouri’s RBs has rushed for 2,641 yards on 479 carries (5.5 YPC) since the 2023 season — T-28th-best among FBS RBs. Texas A&M’s defense have allowed just 4.3 YPC to RBs since the 2023 season — T-23rd-best among FBS defenses.

Missouri Offensive Stats & Trends

Missouri TEs have averaged just 5.3 yards per reception (58 yards/11 catches) this season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.4

Missouri TEs have averaged just 5.3 yards per reception (58 yards/11 catches) this season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 11.1

Texas A&M Offensive Stats & Trends

Texas A&M Skill Players have averaged just 8.3 yards per reception (91 yards/11 catches) in the 4th quarter this season– 2nd-worst among SEC Teams; Average: 14.4

Texas A&M QBs have 21 completions for 20 or more yards on 3rd down since the 2023 season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams

Missouri Tigers Defensive Stats & Trends

Missouri has allowed 7 rushing TDs on 69 carries (9.9 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 4.9

Missouri has tackled opponents for a loss on 4 of 9 rushing attempts (44% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 16%.

Missouri has tackled opponents for a loss on 17 of 69 rushing attempts (25% TFL%) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– best in the SEC; Average: 16%.

Missouri has allowed 9 rushing TDs on 550 carries (61.1 Carries Per TD) since the 2023 season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 27.2

Missouri has allowed 7 rushing TDs on 69 carries (9.9 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 4.6

Texas A&M Aggies Defensive Stats & Trends

Texas A&M tackled opponents for a loss on 6 of 19 rushing attempts (32% TFL%) on 3rd and short in the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11%.

Texas A&M has sacked opposing QBs just once on 43 pass attempts in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst in the SEC; Average: 13.6

Texas A&M has tackled opponents for a loss on 6 of 25 rushing attempts (24% TFL%) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– best in the SEC; Average: 10%.

Texas A&M has tackled opponents for a loss on 6 of 25 rushing attempts (24% TFL%) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– 4th-best in FBS; Average: 11%.

Texas A&M tackled opponents for a loss on 6 of 19 rushing attempts (32% TFL%) on 3rd and short in the 2023 season– best in the SEC; Average: 10%.