- The Navy is a -3.5 point favorite vs. UAB
- The Navy vs. UAB Total(Over/Under): 57.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN2
The Navy Midshipmen (3-0) visit Protective Stadium to take on the UAB Blazers (1-2) on Sep. 28 in Birmingham, AL. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EDT.
Navy is a betting favorite in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-115).
The Navy vs. UAB Over/Under is 57.5 total points.
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Navy vs. UAB Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Navy | -3.5 -115 | 57.5 -110 | -175 |
| UAB | +3.5 -105 | 57.5 -110 | +145 |
Navy vs UAB Prediction:
The winning team model predicts UAB will win this game with 57.1% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Navy and UAB, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Navy vs UAB Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts UAB will cover the spread with 59.3% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Navy Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Navy has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.55 Units / 21% ROI)
- Navy has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 10 games (+2.35 Units / 20% ROI)
- Navy have covered the 1Q Spread in 6 of their last 10 games (+1.80 Units / 15% ROI)
UAB Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- UAB has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.70 Units / 34% ROI)
- UAB have covered the Spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)
- UAB has hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 4 games at home (+2.35 Units / 39% ROI)
- UAB have covered the 1H Spread in 3 of their last 4 games at home (+1.95 Units / 46% ROI)
- UAB have covered the 1Q Spread in 3 of their last 4 games at home (+1.95 Units / 44% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Navy players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Navy Player Prop Bets Today
- Eli Heidenreich has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Brandon Chatman has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Navy: Keys to the Game vs. UAB
Navy is 7-3 (.636) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– 11th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .452
Navy is 3-6 (.300) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– T-38th-worst in FBS; Average: .452
Navy is 3-4 (.375) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-31st-worst in FBS; Average: .547
Navy is 5-2 (.714) when making 7 or more explosive plays since the 2023 season– T-14th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .598
UAB: Keys to the Game vs. Navy
UAB is 2-8 (.200) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– T-17th-worst in FBS; Average: .452
UAB is 3-10 (.231) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2023 season– T-20th-worst in FBS; Average: .422
UAB is 3-5 (.375) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– T-31st-worst in FBS; Average: .551
UAB is 1-8 (.111) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season– 7th-worst in FBS; Average: .444
Matchup Notes for Navy vs. UAB
UAB’s RBs have 43.0 receiving yards per game this season — 15th-best among FBS RBs. Navy’s defense has allowed 289.3 receiving yards per game this season — 9th-worst among FBS defenses.
UAB has 68 receptions in 3 games (22.7 per game) this season — 30th-best among FBS skill players. Navy’s defense has allowed 26.0 receptions per game this season — 3rd-worst among FBS defenses.
UAB’s RBs has 19 receptions in 3 games (6.3 per game) this season — 4th-best among FBS RBs. Navy’s defense has allowed 26.0 receptions per game this season — 3rd-worst among FBS defenses.
Navy’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 23.8% of 42 attempts this season — best among FBS offenses. UAB’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 6.3% of attempts this season — 30th-worst among FBS defenses.
Navy’s offense has thrown for 490 passing yards in 3 games (just 163.3 YPG) this season — 21st-worst among FBS offenses. UAB’s defense has allowed just 102.7 passing yards per game this season — 3rd-best among FBS defenses.
Navy’s QBs has thrown for 477 passing yards in 3 games (just 159.0 YPG) this season — T-18th-worst among FBS teams. UAB’s defense has allowed just 102.7 passing yards per game this season — 3rd-best among FBS defenses.
Navy Offensive Stats & Trends
Navy RBs have been targeted 9.8 times per game (147/15) since the 2023 season– highest among FBS Teams; Average: 4.1
Navy RBs have 8 receptions for 20 or more yards this season– most among FBS Teams
Navy RBs have averaged 7.9 yards from scrimmage per touch (2,012 yards / 256 touches) on 1st down since the 2023 season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.4
Navy Skill Players have been targeted 13.5 times per game (203/15) since the 2023 season– 3rd-lowest among FBS Teams; Average: 29.4
Navy WRs have averaged just 2.3 receptions per game (34/15) since the 2023 season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 12.8
UAB Offensive Stats & Trends
UAB RBs have been targeted 7.7 times per game (116/15) since the 2023 season– T-2nd-highest among FBS Teams; Average: 4.1
UAB RBs have been targeted 32 times in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– 2nd-most among FBS Teams
UAB RBs have been targeted 3.9 times per game (59/15) in the 2nd half since the 2023 season– 2nd-highest among FBS Teams; Average: 1.9
UAB RBs have 26 receptions in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams
UAB RBs have averaged 3.1 receptions per game (47/15) in the 2nd half since the 2023 season– 3rd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 1.4
Navy Midshipmen Defensive Stats & Trends
Navy’s opponents has attempted two-point conversions on 29% of PATs this season– 2nd-highest among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%
Navy has allowed a Completion Pct of 70% (40 completions/57 attempts) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 54%
Navy has allowed a Completion Pct of 70% (40 completions/57 attempts) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 56%
Navy defense allowed 7 completions for 20 or more yards last week– T-2nd-most in FBS
Navy’s opponents has attempted 43.7 passes per game this season– highest among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 30.1
UAB Blazers Defensive Stats & Trends
UAB has allowed no passing TDs (63 pass attempts) this season– T-best in FBS; Average: 22.6
UAB has allowed a Completion Pct of just 46% (29 completions/63 attempts) this season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 62%
UAB has allowed a Completion Pct of just 39% (13 completions/33 attempts) in the 1st half this season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 63%
UAB has allowed no passing TDs (63 pass attempts) this season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 19.4
UAB has allowed a Completion Pct of just 39% (13 completions/33 attempts) in the 1st half this season– best in FBS; Average: 61%
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