Nevada vs Boise St Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 11

BetMGM Betting Nov 05, 2024, 3:41 PM

min read

Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty runs for a short gain in the first half of an NCAA college football game against Colorado State on Saturday, Oct. 14, 2023, in Fort Collins, Colo. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

(AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

Boise St is a -24.5 point favorite vs. Nevada
Nevada vs. Boise State Total (Over/Under): 60.5 points
TV Channel: FOX

The Nevada Wolf Pack (3-7) visit Albertsons Stadium to take on the Boise State Broncos (7-1) on Nov. 9 in Boise, ID. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EST.

Boise St is a betting favorite in Week 11, with the spread sitting at -24.5 (-105).

The Nevada vs. Boise State Over/Under is 60.5 total points.

Bet now on Boise St vs Nevada & all NCAAF games with BetMGM

Nevada vs. Boise State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Nevada	+24.5 -115	60.5 -110	+1300
Boise State	-24.5 -105	60.5 -110	-3000

Nevada vs Boise State Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Boise State will win this game with 95.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Nevada and Boise St, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Nevada vs Boise State Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Nevada will cover the spread with 87.6% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

Bet now on Boise St vs Nevada and all games with BetMGM

Get up to $1,500 First Bet Offer

Nevada Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Nevada has hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.60 Units / 32% ROI)
Nevada has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.45 Units / 20% ROI)
Nevada has hit the 1H Moneyline in 3 of their last 13 games (+1.45 Units / 9% ROI)
Nevada has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 13 games (+0.20 Units / 1% ROI)

Boise State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Boise State has hit the 1H Moneyline in their last 12 games (+16.90 Units / 25% ROI)
Boise State have covered the 1H Spread in 11 of their last 13 games (+8.75 Units / 61% ROI)
Boise State has hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 12 games (+8.00 Units / 6% ROI)
Boise State have covered the Spread in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.80 Units / 54% ROI)
Boise State has hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.90 Units / 64% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Nevada players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Nevada Player Prop Bets Today

Brendon Lewis has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Brendon Lewis has hit the TD Passes Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 61% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Boise State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Boise State Player Prop Best Bets Today

Ashton Jeanty has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Matt Lauter has hit the Receptions Over in his last game (+1.25 Units / 125% ROI)
Ashton Jeanty has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Maddux Madsen has hit the TD Passes Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 77% ROI)
Ashton Jeanty has hit the Receptions Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 56% ROI)

Nevada Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Nevada is 5-4 against the spread this college football season (+0.6 Units / 5.43% ROI).

Nevada is 3-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.35 Units / -19.18% ROI
Nevada is 6-4 when betting the Over for +1.6 Units / 14.55% ROI
Nevada is 4-6 when betting the Under for -2.6 Units / -23.64% ROI

Boise State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Boise St is 6-1 against the spread this college football season (+4.9 Units / 55.37% ROI).

Boise State is 6-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +5 Units / 4.87% ROI
Boise State is 6-2 when betting the Over for +3.8 Units / 43.18% ROI
Boise State is 2-6 when betting the Under for -4.6 Units / -52.27% ROI

Nevada: Keys to the Game vs. Boise State

Nevada is winless (0-10) when losing at least one fumble since the 2023 season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .415

Nevada is 2-15 (.118) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– 4th-worst in FBS; Average: .456

Nevada is 3-11 (.214) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– 7th-worst in FBS; Average: .538

Nevada is 2-14 (.125) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season– T-6th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .373

Boise State: Keys to the Game vs. Nevada

Boise State is 10-4 (.714) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .400

Boise State is 10-2 (.833) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes since the 2023 season– T-2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .544

Boise State is 15-6 (.714) when making 7 or more explosive plays since the 2023 season– T-39th-best in FBS; Average: .638

Boise State is 13-6 (.684) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– 10th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .463

Matchup Notes for Nevada vs. Boise State

Boise State’s RBs has rushed for 4,495 yards on 703 carries (6.4 YPC) since the 2023 season — T-best among FBS RBs. Nevada’s defense have allowed 5.6 YPC to RBs since the 2023 season — T-13th-worst among FBS defenses.

Boise State’s WRs has averaged 14.4 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-18th-best among FBS WRs. Nevada’s defense has allowed 12.9 RAC since the 2023 season — T-16th-worst among FBS defenses.

Boise State has gained 4,992 yards on 370 receptions (13.5 YPR) since the 2023 season — T-14th-best among FBS skill players. Nevada’s defense has allowed 12.9 Yards Per Reception since the 2023 season — T-19th-worst among FBS defenses.

Nevada has averaged just 10.9 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-22nd-worst among FBS skill players. Boise State’s defense has allowed 12.9 RAC since the 2023 season — T-16th-worst among FBS defenses.

Nevada’s QBs has thrown for 4,056 passing yards in 22 games (just 184.4 YPG) since the 2023 season — 20th-worst among FBS teams. Boise State’s defense has allowed 249.9 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 17th-worst among FBS defenses.

Nevada’s offense has thrown for 4,074 passing yards in 22 games (just 185.2 YPG) since the 2023 season — 18th-worst among FBS offenses. Boise State’s defense has allowed 249.9 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 17th-worst among FBS defenses.

Nevada Offensive Stats & Trends

Nevada’s RBs has averaged just 5.6 yards after the catch this season — T-16th-worst among FBS RBs. Boise State’s defense has allowed 12.5 RAC this season — 35th-worst among FBS defenses.

Nevada’s RBs has averaged just 4.8 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 4th-worst among FBS RBs. Boise State’s defense has allowed 12.9 RAC since the 2023 season — T-16th-worst among FBS defenses.

Boise State Offensive Stats & Trends

Boise State RBs have averaged 248.5 rushing yards per game (1,988/8) this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 127.4

Boise State RBs have averaged 7.4 Yards per Carry (1,988 yards/269 carries) this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.1

Boise State RBs have rushed for 12 TDs in the 4th quarter this season– most among FBS Teams

Boise State RBs have averaged 7.6 yards from scrimmage per touch (3,235 yards / 428 touches) on 1st down since the 2023 season– T-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.4

Nevada Wolf Pack Defensive Stats & Trends

Nevada has allowed 8.1 yards from scrimmage per touch (613 yards / 76 touches) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– 4th-worst in FBS; Average: 5.2

Nevada has allowed a Completion Pct of 70% (30 completions/43 attempts) on 3rd and long this season– 4th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 55%

Nevada opponents has averaged 7.8 Passing Attempts per TD (31 Pass Attempts/4 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone this season– 5th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 3.8

Nevada tackled opponents for a loss on just 2 of 36 rushing attempts (6% TFL%) last week– 3rd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 14%.

Nevada has sacked opposing QBs on just 5% of pass attempts (30/650) since the 2023 season– T-4th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%

Boise State Broncos Defensive Stats & Trends

Boise State has sacked opposing QBs on 15% of pass attempts (39/257) this season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 6%

Boise State has averaged 4.9 sacks per game this season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.0

Boise State has averaged 4.9 sacks per game this season– best in FBS; Average: 2.1

Boise State has sacked opponents 39 times this season– most among Non-Power Conference Teams

Boise State has sacked opposing QBs on 11% of pass attempts (75/698) since the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%