- Texas State is a -10 point favorite vs. North Texas
- North Texas vs. Texas State Total (Over/Under): 68.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN
The North Texas Mean Green (6-6) visit Gerald J. Ford Stadium to take on the Texas State Bobcats (7-5) on Jan. 3 in Dallas, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:00pm EST.
Texas State is a betting favorite in First Responder Bowl, with the spread sitting at -10 (-110).
The North Texas vs. Texas State Over/Under is 68.5 total points.
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North Texas vs. Texas State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| North Texas | +10 -110 | 68.5 -115 | +290 |
| Texas State | -10 -110 | 68.5 -105 | -375 |
North Texas vs Texas State Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Texas State will win this game with 70.3% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both North Texas and Texas State, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
North Texas vs Texas State Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts North Texas will cover the spread with 53.8% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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North Texas Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- North Texas has hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)
- North Texas has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.80 Units / 55% ROI)
- North Texas has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 away games (+2.95 Units / 37% ROI)
- North Texas has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.85 Units / 50% ROI)
- North Texas have covered the 1Q Spread in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.90 Units / 27% ROI)
Texas State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Texas State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games (+8.00 Units / 61% ROI)
- Texas State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.25 Units / 28% ROI)
- Texas State has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+3.60 Units / 25% ROI)
- Texas State have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 13 games (+0.35 Units / 2% ROI)
- Texas State have covered the 1Q Spread in 6 of their last 11 games (+0.15 Units / 1% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Texas State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Texas State Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Joey Hobert has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Ismail Mahdi has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Jordan McCloud has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Kole Wilson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Jordan McCloud has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 53% ROI)
North Texas Against the Spread (ATS) Record
North Texas is 4-8 against the spread this college football season (-4.8 Units / -36.23% ROI).
- North Texas is 5-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.6 Units / -3.18% ROI
- North Texas is 8-4 when betting the Over for +3.6 Units / 27.27% ROI
- North Texas is 4-8 when betting the Under for -4.8 Units / -36.36% ROI
Texas State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Texas State is 6-6 against the spread this college football season (-0.65 Units / -4.91% ROI).
- Texas State is 6-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -21.15 Units / -24.93% ROI
- Texas State is 7-4 when betting the Over for +2.6 Units / 19.7% ROI
- Texas State is 4-7 when betting the Under for -3.7 Units / -28.03% ROI
North Texas: Keys to the Game vs. Texas State
North Texas is 1-7 (.125) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season– T-5th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .375
North Texas is 8-2 (.800) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season– T-23rd-best in FBS; Average: .620
North Texas is 3-9 (.250) when losing at least one fumble since the 2023 season– T-26th-worst in FBS; Average: .437
North Texas is 1-7 (.125) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season– T-7th-worst in FBS; Average: .432
Texas State: Keys to the Game vs. North Texas
Texas State is 12-1 (.923) when intercepting at least 1 pass since the 2023 season– 4th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .627
Texas State is 5-2 (.714) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties this season– T-12th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .469
Texas State is 11-4 (.733) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season– T-35th-best in FBS; Average: .620
Texas State is 5-1 (.833) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush this season– T-7th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .612
Matchup Notes for North Texas vs. Texas State
Texas State’s QBs has thrown for 3,181 passing yards in 12 games (265.1 YPG) this season — 29th-best among FBS teams. North Texas’s defense has allowed 261.1 passing yards per game this season — 13th-worst among FBS defenses.
Texas State’s WRs has averaged just 12.0 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-22nd-worst among FBS WRs. North Texas’s defense has allowed 12.9 RAC since the 2023 season — T-13th-worst among FBS defenses.
Texas State’s offense has thrown for 3,181 passing yards in 12 games (265.1 YPG) this season — 29th-best among FBS offenses. North Texas’s defense has allowed 261.1 passing yards per game this season — 13th-worst among FBS defenses.
North Texas’s RBs has averaged just 5.5 yards after the catch this season — T-8th-worst among FBS RBs. Texas State’s defense has allowed just 10.7 RAC this season — 28th-best among FBS defenses.
North Texas’s RBs has just 0.1 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-27th-worst among FBS RBs. Texas State’s defense has allowed just 0.9 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-11th-best among FBS defenses.
North Texas’s offense has averaged 2.6 passing TDs per game this season — T-3rd-best among FBS offenses. Texas State’s defense has allowed just 0.9 passing TDs per game this season — T-11th-best among FBS defenses.
North Texas Offensive Stats & Trends
North Texas WRs have 17 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter this season– most among FBS Teams
North Texas WRs have 39 receptions in the Red Zone this season– most among FBS Teams
North Texas WRs have averaged 21.2 receptions per game (254/12) this season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.3
North Texas WRs have 33 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– most among FBS Teams
North Texas WRs have been targeted 33.4 times per game (802/24) since the 2023 season– 2nd-highest among FBS Teams; Average: 20.7
Texas State Offensive Stats & Trends
Texas State’s QBs has thrown for 3,181 passing yards in 12 games (265.1 YPG) this season — 29th-best among FBS teams. North Texas’s defense has allowed 261.1 passing yards per game this season — 13th-worst among FBS defenses.
Texas State’s WRs has averaged just 12.0 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-22nd-worst among FBS WRs. North Texas’s defense has allowed 12.9 RAC since the 2023 season — T-13th-worst among FBS defenses.
Texas State’s offense has thrown for 3,181 passing yards in 12 games (265.1 YPG) this season — 29th-best among FBS offenses. North Texas’s defense has allowed 261.1 passing yards per game this season — 13th-worst among FBS defenses.
Texas State’s WRs has averaged just 12.0 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-22nd-worst among FBS WRs. North Texas’s defense has allowed 13.8 RAC to WRs since the 2023 season — T-20th-worst among FBS defenses.
Texas State’s RBs has averaged 9.7 yards after the catch this season — T-27th-best among FBS RBs. North Texas’s defense has allowed 12.9 RAC this season — 18th-worst among FBS defenses.
North Texas Mean Green Defensive Stats & Trends
North Texas has no interceptions (75 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 38.0
North Texas has forced 3 fumbles on 500 carries (166.7 Carries Per Fumble) this season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 43.3
North Texas has forced 9 fumbles on 1,044 carries (116.0 Carries Per Fumble) since the 2023 season– worst in FBS; Average: 42.1
North Texas allowed 231.2 yards from scrimmage per game to RBs in the 2023 season– worst in FBS; Average: 141.6
North Texas has forced 9 fumbles on 1,044 carries (116.0 Carries Per Fumble) since the 2023 season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 43.2
Texas State Bobcats Defensive Stats & Trends
Texas State opponents has averaged 32.7 Passing Attempts per TD (360 Pass Attempts/11 Passing TDs) this season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 19.2
Texas State has tackled opponents for a loss on 3 of 17 rushing attempts (18% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– 5th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 10%.
Texas State has sacked opposing QBs on 9% of pass attempts (71/779) since the 2023 season– T-12th-best in FBS; Average: 7%
Texas State has sacked opposing QBs on 9% of pass attempts (33/360) this season– 23rd-best in FBS; Average: 7%
Texas State has tackled opponents for a loss on 190 of 943 rushing attempts (20% TFL%) since the 2023 season– T-11th-best in FBS; Average: 16%.
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