- Notre Dame is a -2 point favorite vs. Penn State
- Notre Dame vs. Penn State Total (Over/Under): 45.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish (13-1) visit Hard Rock Stadium to take on the Penn State Nittany Lions (13-2) on Jan. 9 in Miami Gardens, FL. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EST.
Notre Dame is a betting favorite in the Orange Bowl, with the spread sitting at -2 (-110).
The Notre Dame vs. Penn State Over/Under is 45.5 total points.
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Notre Dame vs. Penn State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Notre Dame | -2 -110 | 45.5 -115 | -135 |
| Penn State | +2 -110 | 45.5 -105 | +115 |
Notre Dame vs Penn State Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Penn State will win this game with 55.1% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Notre Dame and Penn State, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Notre Dame vs Penn State Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Penn State will cover the spread with 57.1% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Notre Dame Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Notre Dame has hit the Moneyline in their last 12 games (+12.00 Units / 8% ROI)
- Notre Dame have covered the Spread in their last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 90% ROI)
- Notre Dame have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.85 Units / 53% ROI)
- Notre Dame have covered the 1Q Spread in 4 of their last 5 games (+4.05 Units / 69% ROI)
- Notre Dame has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.45 Units / 29% ROI)
Penn State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Penn State has hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 14 games (+10.00 Units / 1% ROI)
- Penn State has hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.90 Units / 64% ROI)
- Penn State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.70 Units / 40% ROI)
- Penn State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+3.00 Units / 5% ROI)
- Penn State have covered the Spread in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.85 Units / 37% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Notre Dame players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Notre Dame Player Prop Bets Today
- Riley Leonard has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 87% ROI)
- Jaden Greathouse has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 87% ROI)
- Beaux Collins has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 78% ROI)
- Riley Leonard has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 48% ROI)
- Jeremiyah Love has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.65 Units / 32% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Penn State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Penn State Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Harrison Wallace III has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Nicholas Singleton has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 81% ROI)
- Julian Fleming has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 78% ROI)
- Drew Allar has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 77% ROI)
- Drew Allar has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Notre Dame Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Notre Dame is 12-2 against the spread this college football season (+9.8 Units / 63.02% ROI).
- Notre Dame is 13-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -66.75 Units / -28.26% ROI
- Notre Dame is 7-7 when betting the Over for -0.7 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Notre Dame is 7-7 when betting the Under for -0.7 Units / -4.55% ROI
Penn State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Penn State is 8-7 against the spread this college football season (+0.35 Units / 2.13% ROI).
- Penn State is 12-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +10 Units / 0.71% ROI
- Penn State is 6-9 when betting the Over for -3.9 Units / -23.64% ROI
- Penn State is 9-6 when betting the Under for +2.4 Units / 14.55% ROI
Notre Dame: Keys to the Game vs. Penn State
Notre Dame is 15-3 (.833) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: .441
Notre Dame is undefeated (9-0) when making 7 or more explosive plays this season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .656
Notre Dame is 6-1 (.857) when sacking the QB less than 3 times this season– 4th-best in FBS; Average: .431
Notre Dame is undefeated (10-0) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays this season– T-best in FBS; Average: .606
Penn State: Keys to the Game vs. Notre Dame
Penn State is 7-1 (.875) when sacking the QB less than 3 times this season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: .431
Penn State is 7-1 (.875) when sacking the QB less than 3 times this season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .470
Penn State is 21-3 (.875) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– 5th-best in FBS; Average: .603
Penn State is 17-1 (.944) when intercepting at least 1 pass since the 2023 season– T-2nd-best in FBS; Average: .669
Matchup Notes for Notre Dame vs. Penn State
Penn State has gained 3,511 yards on 280 receptions (12.5 YPR) this season — 5th-best among Big Ten skill players. Notre Dame’s defense has allowed just 9.8 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — 30th-best among FBS defenses.
Penn State’s WRs has gained 1,643 yards on 102 receptions (16.1 YPR) this season — best among Big Ten WRs. Notre Dame’s defense has allowed just 9.8 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — 30th-best among FBS defenses.
Penn State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 12.1% of 414 attempts this season — T-29th-best among FBS offenses. Notre Dame’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 7.7% of attempts this season — T-16th-best among FBS defenses.
Notre Dame’s QBs has thrown for 2,611 passing yards in 14 games (just 186.5 YPG) this season — 26th-worst among FBS teams. Penn State’s defense has allowed just 187.9 passing yards per game this season — 27th-best among FBS defenses.
Notre Dame’s offense has thrown for 2,648 passing yards in 14 games (just 189.1 YPG) this season — 28th-worst among FBS offenses. Penn State’s defense has allowed just 187.9 passing yards per game this season — 27th-best among FBS defenses.
Notre Dame’s RBs has 2 rushing touchdowns per game this season — T-9th-best among FBS RBs. Penn State’s defense has allowed just 0.5 rushing touchdowns per game this season — T-2nd-best among FBS defenses.
Notre Dame Offensive Stats & Trends
Notre Dame’s QBs has thrown for 2,611 passing yards in 14 games (just 186.5 YPG) this season — 26th-worst among FBS teams. Penn State’s defense has allowed just 187.9 passing yards per game this season — 27th-best among FBS defenses.
Notre Dame RBs have averaged 6.9 Yards per Carry (2,115 yards/308 carries) this season– T-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.1
Notre Dame RBs have averaged 20.4 yards per reception (102 yards/5 catches) in the 4th quarter this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 8.1
Notre Dame Skill Players have no touchdowns on 17 receptions in close and late situations this season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.0
Notre Dame RBs have averaged 7.6 yards from scrimmage per touch (1,474 yards / 195 touches) on 1st down this season– T-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.4
Penn State Offensive Stats & Trends
Penn State TEs have averaged 7.9 receptions per game (110/14) this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 3.7
Penn State TEs have been targeted 48 times in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– most among Big Ten Teams
Penn State has gained 3,511 yards on 280 receptions (12.5 YPR) this season — 5th-best among Big Ten skill players. Notre Dame’s defense has allowed just 9.8 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — 30th-best among FBS defenses.
Penn State’s WRs has gained 1,643 yards on 102 receptions (16.1 YPR) this season — best among Big Ten WRs. Notre Dame’s defense has allowed just 9.8 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — 30th-best among FBS defenses.
Penn State TEs have averaged 7.9 receptions per game (110/14) this season– 3rd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 3.3
Notre Dame Fighting Irish Defensive Stats & Trends
Notre Dame has allowed a Completion Pct of just 52% (185 completions/359 attempts) in the 1st half since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 62%
Notre Dame has allowed opponents to catch just 381 of 726 passes (53% Reception Pct) since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 61%
Notre Dame has allowed a Completion Pct of just 50% (186 completions/371 attempts) this season– best in FBS; Average: 61%
Notre Dame opponents has averaged 39.1 Passing Attempts per TD (742 Pass Attempts/19 Passing TDs) since the 2023 season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 20.4
Notre Dame has allowed a Completion Pct of just 51% (381 completions/742 attempts) since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 61%
Penn State Nittany Lions Defensive Stats & Trends
Penn State has allowed 7 rushing TDs on 452 carries (64.6 Carries Per TD) this season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 23.1
Penn State has allowed 4 rushing TDs on 49 carries (12.2 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone this season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 4.6
Penn State has allowed 7 rushing TDs on 452 carries (64.6 Carries Per TD) this season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 25.4
Penn State has allowed 4 rushing TDs on 49 carries (12.2 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone this season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 4.8
Penn State sacked opposing QBs on 15% of pass attempts (50/340) in the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 7%
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