- The Ohio State is a -23.5 point favorite vs. Michigan State
- The Ohio State vs. Michigan State Total(Over/Under): 48.5 points
- TV Channel: PEAC
The Ohio State Buckeyes (3-0) visit Spartan Stadium to take on the Michigan State Spartans (3-1) on Sep. 28 in East Lansing, MI. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EDT.
Ohio State is a betting favorite in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -23.5 (-115).
The Ohio State vs. Michigan State Over/Under is 48.5 total points.
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Ohio State vs. Michigan State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Ohio State | -23.5 -115 | 48.5 -110 | -3000 |
| Michigan State | +23.5 -105 | 48.5 -110 | +1300 |
Ohio State vs Michigan State Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Ohio State will win this game with 95.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Ohio State and Michigan State, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Ohio State vs Michigan State Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Michigan State will cover the spread with 56.8% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Ohio State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Ohio State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.05 Units / 44% ROI)
- Ohio State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games (+5.00 Units / 14% ROI)
- Ohio State has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.20 Units / 1% ROI)
- Ohio State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+4.00 Units / 32% ROI)
- Ohio State have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.55 Units / 12% ROI)
Michigan State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Michigan State have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.55 Units / 32% ROI)
- Michigan State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 10 games (+2.00 Units / 17% ROI)
- Michigan State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 3 of their last 4 games at home (+1.90 Units / 43% ROI)
- Michigan State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 10 games (+1.75 Units / 16% ROI)
- Michigan State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 4 of their last 9 games (+1.75 Units / 15% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Ohio State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Ohio State Player Prop Bets Today
- Emeka Egbuka has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Will Howard has hit the TD Passes Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+2.05 Units / 49% ROI)
- TreVeyon Henderson has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Devin Brown has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Carnell Tate has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Michigan State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Michigan State Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Nathan Carter has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Jaron Glover has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Ohio State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Ohio State is 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI).
Michigan State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Michigan State is 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.2 Units / -27.27% ROI).
Ohio State: Keys to the Game vs. Michigan State
Ohio State is 10-1 (.909) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: .445
Ohio State is 10-1 (.909) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .508
Ohio State is 12-2 (.857) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– T-11th-best in FBS; Average: .535
Ohio State is 12-1 (.923) when rushing for more than 100 yards since the 2023 season– T-7th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .702
Michigan State: Keys to the Game vs. Ohio State
Michigan State is undefeated (5-0) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .507
Michigan State is 1-7 (.125) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .506
Michigan State is undefeated (5-0) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .536
Michigan State is undefeated (7-0) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .647
Matchup Notes for Ohio State vs. Michigan State
Michigan State has gained 976 yards on 70 receptions (13.9 YPR) this season — T-30th-best among FBS skill players. Ohio State’s defense has allowed just 7.7 Yards Per Reception this season — 6th-best among FBS defenses.
Michigan State has gained 976 yards on 70 receptions (13.9 YPR) this season — T-30th-best among FBS skill players. Ohio State’s defense has allowed just 7.7 Yards Per Reception this season — 2nd-best among Big Ten defenses.
Michigan State has gained 976 yards on 70 receptions (13.9 YPR) this season — 5th-best among Big Ten skill players. Ohio State’s defense has allowed just 7.7 Yards Per Reception this season — 2nd-best among Big Ten defenses.
Ohio State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 13.3% of 90 attempts this season — T-24th-best among FBS offenses. Michigan State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 12.0% of attempts this season — T-23rd-best among FBS defenses.
Ohio State has gained 933 yards on 61 receptions (15.3 YPR) this season — 2nd-best among Big Ten skill players. Michigan State’s defense has allowed 11.1 Yards Per Reception this season — 5th-worst among Big Ten defenses.
Ohio State’s TEs has 7 receptions in 3 games (just 2.3 per game) this season — 4th-worst among Big Ten TEs. Michigan State’s defense has allowed just 1.3 receptions per game to TEs this season — T-5th-best among FBS defenses.
Ohio State Offensive Stats & Trends
Ohio State RBs averaged 12.6 yards from scrimmage per touch (177 yards / 14 touches) on 1st down last week– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.2
Ohio State RBs have averaged 8.1 Yards per Carry (699 yards/86 carries) this season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.2
Ohio State RBs averaged 16.7 Yards per Carry (150 yards/9 carries) in the 1st half last week– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.1
Ohio State RBs averaged 10.5 yards from scrimmage per touch (294 yards / 28 touches) last week– T-2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.4
Ohio State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 13.3% of 90 attempts this season — T-24th-best among FBS offenses. Michigan State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 12.0% of attempts this season — T-23rd-best among FBS defenses.
Michigan State Offensive Stats & Trends
Michigan State has gained 976 yards on 70 receptions (13.9 YPR) this season — T-30th-best among FBS skill players. Ohio State’s defense has allowed just 7.7 Yards Per Reception this season — 6th-best among FBS defenses.
Michigan State has gained 976 yards on 70 receptions (13.9 YPR) this season — T-30th-best among FBS skill players. Ohio State’s defense has allowed just 7.7 Yards Per Reception this season — 2nd-best among Big Ten defenses.
Michigan State has gained 976 yards on 70 receptions (13.9 YPR) this season — 5th-best among Big Ten skill players. Ohio State’s defense has allowed just 7.7 Yards Per Reception this season — 2nd-best among Big Ten defenses.
Michigan State RBs have averaged just 3.0 Yards per Carry (222 yards/74 carries) in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– T-3rd-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.1
Michigan State has gained 976 yards on 70 receptions (13.9 YPR) this season — 5th-best among Big Ten skill players. Ohio State’s defense has allowed just 7.7 Yards Per Reception this season — 6th-best among FBS defenses.
Ohio State Buckeyes Defensive Stats & Trends
Ohio State has allowed 7 rushing TDs on 561 carries (80.1 Carries Per TD) since the 2023 season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 24.4
Ohio State has allowed 5.0 yards from scrimmage per touch (3,990 yards / 803 touches) since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 6.8
Ohio State opponents has averaged 44.9 Passing Attempts per TD (449 Pass Attempts/10 Passing TDs) since the 2023 season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 20.6
Ohio State has allowed 139.8 Passing Yards per game (2,237/16) since the 2023 season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 199.9
Ohio State has allowed 139.8 Passing Yards per game (2,237/16) since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 215.2
Michigan State Spartans Defensive Stats & Trends
Michigan State sacked opposing QBs on 25% of pass attempts (4/16) last week– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%
Michigan State has sacked opposing QBs on 16% of pass attempts (15/92) this season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 7%
Michigan State sacked opposing QBs on 25% of pass attempts (4/16) last week– best in FBS; Average: 6%
Michigan State allowed passes of 40+ yards on 1 of 16 attempts (6%) last week– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 1%
Michigan State has tackled opponents for a loss on 2 of 9 rushing attempts (22% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 6%.
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