Oklahoma St vs TCU Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 11

BetMGM Betting Nov 05, 2024, 3:36 PM

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TCU safety Bud Clark works out prior to an NCAA college football game between TCU and Texas, Saturday, Nov. 11, 2023, in Fort Worth, Texas. Texas won 29-26. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)

(AP Photo/Julio Cortez)

TCU is a -11.5 point favorite vs. Oklahoma St
Oklahoma State vs. TCU Total (Over/Under): 66.5 points
TV Channel: FS1

The Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-6) visit Amon G. Carter Stadium to take on the TCU Horned Frogs (5-4) on Nov. 9 in Fort Worth, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EST.

TCU is a betting favorite in Week 11, with the spread sitting at -11.5 (-110).

The Oklahoma State vs. TCU Over/Under is 66.5 total points.

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Oklahoma State vs. TCU Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Oklahoma State	+11.5 -110	66.5 -110	+310
TCU	-11.5 -110	66.5 -110	-400

Oklahoma State vs TCU Prediction:

The winning team model predicts TCU will win this game with 78.4% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Oklahoma St and TCU, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Oklahoma State vs TCU Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts TCU will cover the spread with 75.2% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Oklahoma State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Oklahoma State has hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.50 Units / 23% ROI)
Oklahoma State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.50 Units / 22% ROI)

TCU Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

TCU has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.65 Units / 48% ROI)
TCU have covered the 1Q Spread in 3 of their last 4 games at home (+2.15 Units / 51% ROI)
TCU has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.85 Units / 29% ROI)
TCU has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Oklahoma State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Oklahoma State Player Prop Bets Today

Brennan Presley has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Alan Bowman has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.25 Units / 125% ROI)
Alan Bowman has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
De’Zhaun Stribling has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Ollie Gordon II has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 80% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for TCU players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best TCU Player Prop Best Bets Today

Josh Hoover has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 82% ROI)
Savion Williams has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 87% ROI)
JP Richardson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Cam Cook has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Drake Dabney has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 74% ROI)

Oklahoma State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Oklahoma St is 3-6 against the spread this college football season (-3.5 Units / -35.71% ROI).

Oklahoma State is 3-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.5 Units / -14.71% ROI
Oklahoma State is 6-3 when betting the Over for +2.7 Units / 27.27% ROI
Oklahoma State is 3-6 when betting the Under for -3.6 Units / -36.36% ROI

TCU Against the Spread (ATS) Record

TCU is 2-7 against the spread this college football season (-5.75 Units / -58.08% ROI).

TCU is 4-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.2 Units / -38.61% ROI
TCU is 6-3 when betting the Over for +2.7 Units / 27.27% ROI
TCU is 3-6 when betting the Under for -3.6 Units / -36.36% ROI

Oklahoma State: Keys to the Game vs. TCU

Oklahoma State is 11-3 (.786) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2023 season– 31st-best in FBS; Average: .623

Oklahoma State is 5-3 (.625) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-29th-best in FBS; Average: .505

Oklahoma State is 11-5 (.688) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times since the 2023 season– T-35th-best in FBS; Average: .583

Oklahoma State is 11-5 (.688) when not losing a fumble since the 2023 season– 40th-best in FBS; Average: .597

TCU: Keys to the Game vs. Oklahoma State

TCU is 3-7 (.300) when allowing 200 or more passing yards since the 2023 season– T-28th-worst in FBS; Average: .472

TCU is 8-2 (.800) when intercepting at least 1 pass since the 2023 season– T-35th-best in FBS; Average: .675

TCU is 3-9 (.250) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-11th-worst in FBS; Average: .505

TCU is 2-9 (.182) when intercepting no passes since the 2023 season– T-25th-worst in FBS; Average: .354

Matchup Notes for Oklahoma State vs. TCU

TCU’s TEs has 28 receptions in 8 games (3.5 per game) this season — 5th-best among Big 12 TEs. Oklahoma State’s defense has allowed just 17.2 receptions per game this season — 4th-best among Big 12 defenses.

TCU’s QBs has thrown for 6,728 passing yards in 21 games (320.4 YPG) since the 2023 season — 5th-best among FBS teams. Oklahoma State’s defense has allowed 267.2 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — worst among Big 12 defenses.

TCU’s offense has thrown for 3,003 passing yards in 9 games (333.7 YPG) this season — 5th-best among FBS offenses. Oklahoma State’s defense has allowed 255.0 passing yards per game this season — 3rd-worst among Big 12 defenses.

Oklahoma State’s QBs has thrown for 2,475 passing yards in 9 games (275.0 YPG) this season — T-25th-best among FBS teams. TCU’s defense has allowed just 181.3 passing yards per game this season — 3rd-best among Big 12 defenses.

Oklahoma State has 537 receptions in 23 games (23.3 per game) since the 2023 season — 22nd-best among FBS skill players. TCU’s defense has allowed just 18.3 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 5th-best among Big 12 defenses.

Oklahoma State’s WRs has 414 receptions in 23 games (18.0 per game) since the 2023 season — 11th-best among FBS WRs. TCU’s defense has allowed just 18.3 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 5th-best among Big 12 defenses.

Oklahoma State Offensive Stats & Trends

Oklahoma State TEs have averaged just 3.9 yards per reception (31 yards/8 catches) in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– worst among Big 12 Teams; Average: 10.7

Oklahoma State’s WRs has 414 receptions in 23 games (18.0 per game) since the 2023 season — 3rd-best among Big 12 WRs. TCU’s defense has allowed just 18.3 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 5th-best among Big 12 defenses.

TCU Offensive Stats & Trends

TCU Skill Players have caught 9 touchdown passes in the 4th quarter this season– most among Big 12 Teams

TCU’s RBs has rushed for 2,182 yards on 489 carries (just 4.5 YPC) since the 2023 season — T-22nd-worst among FBS RBs. Oklahoma State’s defense have allowed 5.1 YPC since the 2023 season — T-worst among P5 defenses.

Oklahoma State Cowboys Defensive Stats & Trends

Oklahoma State has allowed 14.5 yards per completion (6,145 yards/424 completions) since the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.6

Oklahoma State has allowed 221.8 yards from scrimmage per game to RBs this season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 138.6

Oklahoma State has forced 2 fumbles on 381 carries (190.5 Carries Per Fumble) this season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 43.0

Oklahoma State has allowed 2,233 rushing yards this season– most in the Big 12

Oklahoma State has allowed 104 receptions for 20+ yards since the 2023 season– most in FBS

TCU Horned Frogs Defensive Stats & Trends

TCU allowed no passing TDs (34 pass attempts) last week– best in the Big 12; Average: 17.7

TCU allowed no passing TDs (34 pass attempts) last week– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 19.0

TCU did not allow any touchdowns on 19 completions last week– best in the Big 12; Average: 11.4

TCU has allowed a Completion Pct of 100% (4 completions/4 attempts) on 3rd and short this season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 61%

TCU has allowed a Completion Pct of 100% (4 completions/4 attempts) on 3rd and short this season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 50%