Purdue vs Wisconsin Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 6

BetMGM Betting Oct 04, 2024, 11:50 AM

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Wisconsin head coach Luke Fickell reacts during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Northwestern Saturday, Nov. 11, 2023, in Madison, Wis. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)

(AP Photo/Morry Gash)

The Wisconsin is a -14 point favorite vs. Purdue
The Purdue vs. Wisconsin Total (Over/Under): 45.5 points
TV Channel: BTN

The Purdue Boilermakers (1-3) visit Camp Randall Stadium to take on the Wisconsin Badgers (2-2) on Oct. 5 in Madison, WI. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EDT.

Wisconsin is a betting favorite in Week 6, with the spread sitting at -14 (-110).

The Purdue vs. Wisconsin Over/Under is 45.5 total points.

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Purdue vs. Wisconsin Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Purdue	+14 -110	45.5 -110	+425
Wisconsin	-14 -110	45.5 -110	-600

Purdue vs Wisconsin Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Wisconsin will win this game with 81.6% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Purdue and Wisconsin, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Purdue vs Wisconsin Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Wisconsin will cover the spread with 67.8% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Purdue Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Purdue has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.85 Units / 53% ROI)
Purdue has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 2 of their last 3 away games (+1.05 Units / 32% ROI)
Purdue has hit the Game Total Under in 1 of their last 2 away games (+1.00 Units / 45% ROI)

Wisconsin Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Wisconsin has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.80 Units / 37% ROI)
Wisconsin has hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.90 Units / 45% ROI)
Wisconsin has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+2.85 Units / 32% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Purdue players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Purdue Player Prop Bets Today

Devin Mockobee has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Hudson Card has hit the TD Passes Over in his last 2 games (+2.15 Units / 102% ROI)
Hudson Card has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Wisconsin players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Wisconsin Player Prop Best Bets Today

Will Pauling has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 84% ROI)
Tyler Van Dyke has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.35 Units / 98% ROI)
Jackson Acker has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 87% ROI)
Bryson Green has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 85% ROI)
Braedyn Locke has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Purdue Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Purdue is 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.2 Units / -27.27% ROI).

Purdue is 0-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -2 Units / -65.57% ROI
Purdue is 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -27.27% ROI
Purdue is 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 20.45% ROI

Wisconsin Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Wisconsin is 0-3 against the spread this college football season (-3.3 Units / -75% ROI).

Wisconsin is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Wisconsin is 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -26.97% ROI
Wisconsin is 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.95 Units / 21.84% ROI

Purdue: Keys to the Game vs. Wisconsin

Purdue is winless (0-9) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .392

Purdue is 3-11 (.214) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .512

Purdue is 3-8 (.273) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season– 13th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .509

Purdue is 2-8 (.200) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– T-9th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .449

Wisconsin: Keys to the Game vs. Purdue

Wisconsin is undefeated (5-0) when not losing a fumble since the 2023 season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .673

Wisconsin is winless (0-6) when allowing 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .309

Wisconsin is 9-2 (.818) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2023 season– T-35th-best in FBS; Average: .684

Wisconsin is 6-3 (.667) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-36th-best in FBS; Average: .545

Matchup Notes for Purdue vs. Wisconsin

Wisconsin’s TEs has 5 receptions in 4 games (just 1.2 per game) this season — worst among Big Ten TEs. Purdue’s defense has allowed just 12.2 receptions per game this season — 5th-best among FBS defenses.

Wisconsin’s TEs has 5 receptions in 4 games (just 1.2 per game) this season — 2nd-worst among P5 TEs. Purdue’s defense has allowed just 12.2 receptions per game this season — 5th-best among FBS defenses.

Wisconsin’s TEs has 5 receptions in 4 games (just 1.2 per game) this season — worst among Big Ten TEs. Purdue’s defense has allowed just 12.2 receptions per game this season — best among Big Ten defenses.

Purdue’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 5.9% of 101 attempts this season — 11th-worst among FBS offenses. Wisconsin’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 12.8% of attempts this season — best among Big Ten defenses.

Purdue’s WRs has gained 2,080 yards on 172 receptions (just 12.1 YPR) since the 2023 season — 4th-worst among Big Ten WRs. Wisconsin’s defense has allowed just 9.9 Yards Per Reception to TEs since the 2023 season — T-35th-best among FBS defenses.

Purdue has gained 3,230 yards on 299 receptions (just 10.8 YPR) since the 2023 season — T-19th-worst among FBS skill players. Wisconsin’s defense has allowed just 10.8 Yards Per Reception since the 2023 season — T-19th-best among FBS defenses.

Purdue Offensive Stats & Trends

Purdue RBs have averaged 11.0 Yards per Carry (243 yards/22 carries) in the 4th quarter this season– 3rd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.3

Purdue has gained 3,230 yards on 299 receptions (just 10.8 YPR) since the 2023 season — 4th-worst among Big Ten skill players. Wisconsin’s defense has allowed just 10.8 Yards Per Reception since the 2023 season — T-19th-best among FBS defenses.

Wisconsin Offensive Stats & Trends

Wisconsin Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 21.7 receptions (347 Rec/16 TDs) since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10.9

Wisconsin Skill Players have just one touchdown on 7 receptions in the Red Zone this season– worst Receptions Per TD among Big Ten Teams; Average: 2.2

Wisconsin Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 4.1 receptions (33 Rec/8 TDs) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 4th-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 2.0

Wisconsin Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 4.1 receptions (33 Rec/8 TDs) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– worst Receptions Per TD among Big Ten Teams; Average: 2.0

Purdue Boilermakers Defensive Stats & Trends

Purdue has not forced a fumble (176 carries) this season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 43.5

Purdue has allowed 14.0 yards per completion (3,512 yards/250 completions) since the 2023 season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 10.9

Purdue has allowed 242.0 rushing yards per game (968/4) this season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 113.1

Purdue has no interceptions (80 pass attempts) this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 35.5

Purdue has no interceptions and 3 TD passes allowed this season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 1.2

Wisconsin Badgers Defensive Stats & Trends

Wisconsin did not record a sack (39 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.2

Wisconsin did not record a sack (39 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.1

Wisconsin’s opponents has not attempted a two-point conversion (47 PATs) since the 2023 season– lowest in the Big Ten; Average: 8%

Wisconsin has not tackled opponents for a loss on any of 14 rushing attempts on 3rd and short this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 11%.

Wisconsin has forced 7 fumbles on 589 carries (84.1 Carries Per Fumble) since the 2023 season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 40.9