- Toledo is a -2.5 point favorite vs. Western Kentucky
- Toledo vs. Western Kentucky Total(Over/Under): 62.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN+
The Toledo Rockets (3-0) visit Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium to take on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (2-1) on Sep. 21 in Bowling Green, KY. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EDT.
Toledo is a betting favorite in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-115).
The Toledo vs. Western Kentucky Over/Under is 62.5 total points.
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Toledo vs. Western Kentucky Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Toledo | -2.5 -115 | 62.5 -115 | -140 |
| Western Kentucky | +2.5 -105 | 62.5 -105 | +115 |
Toledo vs Western Kentucky Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Toledo will win this game with 52.9% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Toledo and Western Kentucky, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Toledo vs Western Kentucky Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Western Kentucky will cover the spread with 74.6% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
Bet now on Western Kentucky vs Toledo and all games with BetMGM
Toledo Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Toledo has hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 13 games (+9.65 Units / 12% ROI)
- Toledo has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 games (+3.80 Units / 11% ROI)
- Toledo has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.70 Units / 19% ROI)
- Toledo has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.20 Units / 23% ROI)
- Toledo has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 14 games (+1.40 Units / 9% ROI)
Western Kentucky Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Western Kentucky has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+6.25 Units / 30% ROI)
- Western Kentucky have covered the 1Q Spread in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.30 Units / 36% ROI)
- Western Kentucky has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.45 Units / 11% ROI)
- Western Kentucky has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+0.85 Units / 16% ROI)
- Western Kentucky have covered the 1H Spread in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+0.85 Units / 15% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Toledo players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Toledo Player Prop Bets Today
- Jerjuan Newton has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 93% ROI)
- Jacquez Stuart has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 82% ROI)
- Junior Vandeross III has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 87% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Western Kentucky players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Western Kentucky Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Elijah Young has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Dalvin Smith has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Toledo Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Toledo is 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).
- Toledo is 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.2 Units / 37.67% ROI
- Toledo is 3-0 when betting the Over for +3 Units / 90.91% ROI
- Toledo is 0-3 when betting the Under for -3.3 Units / -100% ROI
Western Kentucky Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Western Kentucky is 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).
- Western Kentucky is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- Western Kentucky is 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
- Western Kentucky is 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
Toledo: Keys to the Game vs. Western Kentucky
Toledo is undefeated (8-0) when intercepting at least 1 pass since the 2023 season– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .636
Toledo is undefeated (9-0) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-7th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .414
Toledo is 11-1 (.688) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times since the 2023 season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .387
Toledo is 9-1 (.750) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-32nd-best in FBS; Average: .613
Western Kentucky: Keys to the Game vs. Toledo
Western Kentucky is 8-1 (.889) when intercepting at least 1 pass since the 2023 season– 9th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .636
Western Kentucky is 12-6 (.632) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2022 season– T-31st-best in FBS; Average: .508
Western Kentucky is 14-6 (.700) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2022 season– 34th-best in FBS; Average: .566
Western Kentucky is 11-7 (.579) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2022 season– T-33rd-best in FBS; Average: .446
Matchup Notes for Toledo vs. Western Kentucky
Western Kentucky’s QBs has thrown for 899 passing yards in 3 games (299.7 YPG) this season — 26th-best among FBS teams. Toledo’s defense has allowed 246.3 passing yards per game this season — 32nd-worst among FBS defenses.
Western Kentucky’s offense has thrown for 4,765 passing yards in 16 games (297.8 YPG) since the 2023 season — 12th-best among FBS offenses. Toledo’s defense has allowed just 194.2 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 26th-best among FBS defenses.
Western Kentucky’s offense has thrown for 935 passing yards in 3 games (311.7 YPG) this season — 18th-best among FBS offenses. Toledo’s defense has allowed 246.3 passing yards per game this season — 32nd-worst among FBS defenses.
Toledo’s WRs has gained 519 yards on 33 receptions (15.7 YPR) this season — T-32nd-best among FBS WRs. Western Kentucky’s defense has allowed 19.5 Yards Per Reception to WRs this season — 2nd-worst among FBS defenses.
Toledo has gained 3,798 yards on 283 receptions (13.4 YPR) since the 2023 season — 22nd-best among FBS skill players. Western Kentucky’s defense has allowed 12.7 Yards Per Reception since the 2023 season — 27th-worst among FBS defenses.
Toledo has gained 712 yards on 51 receptions (14.0 YPR) this season — T-31st-best among FBS skill players. Western Kentucky’s defense has allowed 17.0 Yards Per Reception this season — worst among NonP5 defenses.
Toledo Offensive Stats & Trends
Toledo’s WRs has gained 519 yards on 33 receptions (15.7 YPR) this season — T-32nd-best among FBS WRs. Western Kentucky’s defense has allowed 19.5 Yards Per Reception to WRs this season — 2nd-worst among FBS defenses.
Toledo has gained 3,798 yards on 283 receptions (13.4 YPR) since the 2023 season — 22nd-best among FBS skill players. Western Kentucky’s defense has allowed 12.7 Yards Per Reception since the 2023 season — 27th-worst among FBS defenses.
Toledo has gained 712 yards on 51 receptions (14.0 YPR) this season — T-31st-best among FBS skill players. Western Kentucky’s defense has allowed 17.0 Yards Per Reception this season — worst among NonP5 defenses.
Toledo Skill Players have fumbled 4 times in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-most among FBS Teams
Toledo’s RBs has averaged 11.7 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 5th-best among FBS RBs. Western Kentucky’s defense has allowed 12.7 RAC since the 2023 season — T-21st-worst among FBS defenses.
Western Kentucky Offensive Stats & Trends
Western Kentucky’s QBs has thrown for 899 passing yards in 3 games (299.7 YPG) this season — 26th-best among FBS teams. Toledo’s defense has allowed 246.3 passing yards per game this season — 32nd-worst among FBS defenses.
Western Kentucky RBs have been targeted 4 times in short yardage situations this season– T-most among FBS Teams
Western Kentucky’s offense has thrown for 4,765 passing yards in 16 games (297.8 YPG) since the 2023 season — 12th-best among FBS offenses. Toledo’s defense has allowed just 194.2 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 26th-best among FBS defenses.
Western Kentucky Skill Players have 14 receptions in the Red Zone this season– 3rd-most among FBS Teams
Western Kentucky RBs have 330 receiving yards on 3rd down since the 2023 season– most among FBS Teams
Toledo Rockets Defensive Stats & Trends
Toledo has allowed one rushing TD on 104 carries this season– 4th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 21.7
Toledo opponents has averaged 28.9 Passing Attempts per TD (867 Pass Attempts/30 Passing TDs) since the 2022 season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 19.0
Toledo has allowed 182.0 Passing Yards per game (5,279/29) since the 2022 season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 225.6
Toledo has sacked opponents 6 times on 1st down this season– most in FBS
Toledo has sacked opponents 6 times on 1st down this season– most among Non-Power Conference Teams
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Defensive Stats & Trends
Western Kentucky has allowed 17.0 yards per completion (798 yards/47 completions) this season– worst in FBS; Average: 11.3
Western Kentucky has allowed 11.6 Yards per Attempt (798 yards/69 attempts) this season– worst in FBS; Average: 6.8
Western Kentucky has allowed 15.4 Yards per Attempt (108 yards/7 attempts) on 3rd and long this season– T-4th-worst in FBS; Average: 6.7
Western Kentucky has allowed first downs on 27% of rush attempts in the Red Zone since the 2022 season– worst in FBS; Average: 17%
Western Kentucky has tackled opponents for a loss on just 76 of 620 rushing attempts (12% TFL%) since the 2023 season– T-13th-worst in FBS; Average: 16%.
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