Troy vs Arkansas St Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 9

BetMGM Betting Oct 24, 2024, 4:11 PM

min read

Arkansas State quarterback Jaylen Raynor (1) warms up before an NCAA football game against Troy on Saturday, Oct. 7, 2023, in Troy, Ala. (AP Photo/Vasha Hunt)

(AP Photo/Vasha Hunt)

The Arkansas St is a -7.5 point favorite vs. Troy
The Troy vs. Arkansas State Total (Over/Under): 50.5 points
TV Channel: ESPN+

The Troy Trojans (1-6) visit Centennial Bank Stadium to take on the Arkansas State Red Wolves (4-3) on Oct. 26 in Jonesboro, AR. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EDT.

Arkansas St is a betting favorite in Week 9, with the spread sitting at -7.5 (-110).

The Troy vs. Arkansas State Over/Under is 50.5 total points.

Bet now on Arkansas St vs Troy & all NCAAF games with BetMGM

Troy vs. Arkansas State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Troy	+7.5 -110	50.5 -110	+230
Arkansas State	-7.5 -110	50.5 -110	-300

Troy vs Arkansas State Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Arkansas State will win this game with 69.2% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Troy and Arkansas St, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Troy vs Arkansas State Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Arkansas State will cover the spread with 60.5% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

Bet now on Arkansas St vs Troy and all games with BetMGM

Get up to $1,500 First Bet Offer

Troy Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Troy has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in their last 12 games (+12.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Troy has hit the 1H Moneyline in 9 of their last 14 games (+8.85 Units / 15% ROI)
Troy has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.75 Units / 51% ROI)
Troy has hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 14 games (+1.40 Units / 9% ROI)
Troy have covered the 1Q Spread in 4 of their last 7 away games (+0.80 Units / 10% ROI)

Arkansas State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Arkansas State has hit the Moneyline in their last 5 games at home (+6.90 Units / 59% ROI)
Arkansas State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in their last 3 games at home (+3.40 Units / 85% ROI)
Arkansas State have covered the 1Q Spread in their last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 81% ROI)
Arkansas State have covered the 1H Spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.80 Units / 50% ROI)
Arkansas State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.60 Units / 24% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Troy players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Troy Player Prop Bets Today

Damien Taylor has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Peyton Higgins has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Landon Parker has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Devonte Ross has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Zeriah Beason has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Troy Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Troy is 1-6 against the spread this college football season (-5.6 Units / -72.73% ROI).

Troy is 1-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.5 Units / -25.37% ROI
Troy is 2-5 when betting the Over for -3.5 Units / -45.45% ROI
Troy is 5-2 when betting the Under for +2.8 Units / 36.36% ROI

Arkansas State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Arkansas St is 3-4 against the spread this college football season (-1.4 Units / -18.18% ROI).

Arkansas State is 4-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.15 Units / 7.57% ROI
Arkansas State is 3-4 when betting the Over for -1.4 Units / -18.18% ROI
Arkansas State is 4-3 when betting the Under for +0.7 Units / 9.09% ROI

Troy: Keys to the Game vs. Arkansas State

Troy is 10-3 (.769) when rushing for more than 100 yards since the 2023 season– T-33rd-best in FBS; Average: .642

Troy is 3-6 (.333) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-13th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .476

Troy is 7-2 (.778) when forcing at least one fumble since the 2023 season– T-10th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .550

Troy is 9-2 (.818) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2023 season– T-33rd-best in FBS; Average: .676

Arkansas State: Keys to the Game vs. Troy

Arkansas State is undefeated (9-0) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .756

Arkansas State is 9-3 (.750) when making 7 or more explosive plays since the 2023 season– 11th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .590

Arkansas State is 9-1 (.900) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2023 season– T-6th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .628

Arkansas State is 7-2 (.778) when making 3 or more explosive runs in a game since the 2023 season– T-13th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .607

Matchup Notes for Troy vs. Arkansas State

Arkansas State’s WRs has averaged 15.3 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 11th-best among FBS WRs. Troy’s defense has allowed just 10.3 RAC since the 2023 season — T-best among NonP5 defenses.

Arkansas State’s WRs has averaged 15.3 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 11th-best among FBS WRs. Troy’s defense has allowed just 11.7 RAC to WRs since the 2023 season — T-15th-best among FBS defenses.

Arkansas State has gained 1,656 yards on 155 receptions (just 10.7 YPR) this season — T-18th-worst among FBS skill players. Troy’s defense has allowed just 10.8 Yards Per Reception this season — T-29th-best among FBS defenses.

Troy’s WRs has averaged 23.0 targets per game since the 2023 season — 35th-highest among FBS WRs. Arkansas State’s defense has allowed 13.9 receptions per game to WRs since the 2023 season — T-24th-worst among FBS defenses.

Troy’s WRs has 1.4 receiving touchdowns per game since the 2023 season — T-24th-best among FBS WRs. Arkansas State’s defense has allowed 1.8 receiving touchdowns per game since the 2023 season — T-19th-worst among FBS defenses.

Troy’s RBs has averaged just 4.1 yards after the catch this season — 3rd-worst among FBS RBs. Arkansas State’s defense has allowed 9.6 RAC to RBs this season — T-25th-worst among FBS defenses.

Troy Offensive Stats & Trends

Troy WRs have averaged 24.1 yards per reception (217 yards/9 catches) on 3rd and long this season– 6th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 14.7

Troy’s WRs have 201.3 receiving yards per game since the 2023 season — 29th-best among FBS WRs. Arkansas State’s defense has allowed 184.6 receiving yards per game to WRs since the 2023 season — 24th-worst among FBS defenses.

Arkansas State Offensive Stats & Trends

Arkansas State’s TEs has gained 426 yards on 58 receptions (just 7.3 YPR) since the 2023 season — T-worst among FBS TEs. Troy’s defense has allowed just 10.5 Yards Per Reception since the 2023 season — T-8th-best among FBS defenses.

Arkansas State’s WRs has averaged 15.3 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 11th-best among FBS WRs. Troy’s defense has allowed just 10.3 RAC since the 2023 season — T-4th-best among FBS defenses.

Troy Trojans Defensive Stats & Trends

Troy has allowed 1.9 yards from scrimmage per touch (87 yards / 47 touches) in the Red Zone this season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 3.7

Troy has allowed 2.6 yards from scrimmage per touch (410 yards / 156 touches) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: 3.7

Troy has allowed a Completion Pct of 86% (12 completions/14 attempts) in the Red Zone this season– 2nd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 54%

Troy has allowed a Completion Pct of 86% (12 completions/14 attempts) in the Red Zone this season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 53%

Troy has allowed a Completion Pct of 71% (125 completions/175 attempts) this season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 61%

Arkansas State Red Wolves Defensive Stats & Trends

Arkansas State has allowed a Completion Pct of just 36% (8 completions/22 attempts) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 62%

Arkansas State has allowed opponents to catch 60 of 84 passes (71% Reception Pct) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 56%

Arkansas State allowed a Completion Pct of 77% (44 completions/57 attempts) on 3rd and long in the 2023 season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 54%

Arkansas State has allowed a Completion Pct of 71% (60 completions/85 attempts) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 54%

Arkansas State has allowed a Completion Pct of 71% (60 completions/85 attempts) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 56%