UCLA vs Penn State Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 6

BetMGM Betting Oct 04, 2024, 11:50 AM

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Penn State quarterback Drew Allar (15) runs with the ball against Rutgers during the second half of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Nov. 19, 2022, in Piscataway, N.J. Penn State won 55-10. (AP Photo/Adam Hunger)

(AP Photo/Adam Hunger)

The Penn State is a -28 point favorite vs. UCLA
The UCLA vs. Penn State Total (Over/Under): 46.5 points
TV Channel: FOX

The UCLA Bruins (1-3) visit Beaver Stadium to take on the Penn State Nittany Lions (4-0) on Oct. 5 in University Park, PA. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EDT.

Penn State is a betting favorite in Week 6, with the spread sitting at -28 (-110).

The UCLA vs. Penn State Over/Under is 46.5 total points.

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UCLA vs. Penn State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
UCLA	+28 -110	46.5 -105	+
Penn State	-28 -110	46.5 -115	+

UCLA vs Penn State Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Penn State will win this game with 95.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both UCLA and Penn State, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

UCLA vs Penn State Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts UCLA will cover the spread with 65.4% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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UCLA Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

UCLA has hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.70 Units / 47% ROI)
UCLA has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.85 Units / 36% ROI)
UCLA has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 4 of their last 7 away games (+1.90 Units / 25% ROI)
UCLA has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 away games (+1.60 Units / 14% ROI)
UCLA has hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 away games (+1.35 Units / 7% ROI)

Penn State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Penn State has hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+1.80 Units / 1% ROI)
Penn State has hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)
Penn State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+0.65 Units / 8% ROI)
Penn State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+0.35 Units / 4% ROI)
Penn State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 games (+0.15 Units / 1% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for UCLA players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best UCLA Player Prop Bets Today

J. Michael Sturdivant has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 5 of his last 7 games (+2.60 Units / 31% ROI)
Ethan Garbers has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
TJ Harden has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Logan Loya has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 3 of his last 4 away games (+1.80 Units / 38% ROI)
Ethan Garbers has hit the TD Passes Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.65 Units / 27% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Penn State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Penn State Player Prop Best Bets Today

Drew Allar has hit the TD Passes Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+4.45 Units / 61% ROI)
Nicholas Singleton has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.75 Units / 51% ROI)
Tyler Warren has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 86% ROI)
Drew Allar has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 85% ROI)
Kaytron Allen has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)

UCLA Against the Spread (ATS) Record

UCLA is 2-2 against the spread this college football season (-0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI).

UCLA is 1-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -2 Units / -23.95% ROI
UCLA is 1-3 when betting the Over for -2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI
UCLA is 3-1 when betting the Under for +1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI

Penn State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Penn State is 2-2 against the spread this college football season (-0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI).

Penn State is 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 17.02% ROI
Penn State is 1-3 when betting the Over for -2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI
Penn State is 3-1 when betting the Under for +1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI

UCLA: Keys to the Game vs. Penn State

UCLA is 1-7 (.125) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .486

UCLA is 1-7 (.125) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2023 season– T-7th-worst in FBS; Average: .420

UCLA is 1-3 (.250) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-7th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .535

UCLA is 1-5 (.167) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– 8th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .449

Penn State: Keys to the Game vs. UCLA

Penn State is 11-1 (.917) when making 7 or more explosive plays since the 2023 season– 4th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .691

Penn State is 13-1 (.929) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-15th-best in FBS; Average: .762

Penn State is 14-2 (.875) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times since the 2023 season– T-9th-best in FBS; Average: .595

Penn State is 11-3 (.786) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– T-23rd-best in FBS; Average: .618

Matchup Notes for UCLA vs. Penn State

Penn State’s WRs has 161 receptions in 17 games (just 9.5 per game) since the 2023 season — 18th-worst among FBS WRs. UCLA’s defense has allowed 22.7 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst among P5 defenses.

Penn State’s WRs has gained 574 yards on 32 receptions (17.9 YPR) this season — best among Big Ten WRs. UCLA’s defense has allowed just 10.8 Yards Per Reception to WRs this season — T-20th-best among FBS defenses.

UCLA’s TEs has gained 616 yards on 38 receptions (16.2 YPR) since the 2023 season — best among Big Ten TEs. Penn State’s defense has allowed just 11.1 Yards Per Reception since the 2023 season — T-30th-best among FBS defenses.

UCLA’s TEs has 38 receptions in 17 games (just 2.2 per game) since the 2023 season — T-3rd-worst among Big Ten TEs. Penn State’s defense has allowed just 15.1 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 2nd-best among P5 defenses.

UCLA’s TEs has gained 616 yards on 38 receptions (16.2 YPR) since the 2023 season — best among Big Ten TEs. Penn State’s defense has allowed just 9.9 Yards Per Reception to TEs since the 2023 season — T-35th-best among FBS defenses.

UCLA Offensive Stats & Trends

UCLA TEs have averaged 16.2 yards per reception (616 yards/38 catches) since the 2023 season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 10.9

UCLA Skill Players have caught just 2 of 13 passes (15% Reception Pct) in the Red Zone this season– worst among Big Ten Teams; Average: 60%

UCLA TEs averaged 18.7 yards per reception (431 yards/23 catches) in the 2023 season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 10.9

Penn State Offensive Stats & Trends

Penn State Skill Players had no touchdowns on 15 receptions last week– T-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10.9

Penn State WRs have no receptions on 3 targets on 3rd and long this season– T-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 55%

UCLA Bruins Defensive Stats & Trends

UCLA has allowed 9.0 Yards per Attempt (727 yards/81 attempts) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 6.0

UCLA has tackled opponents for a loss on 23 of 78 rushing attempts (29% TFL%) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 16%.

UCLA has allowed 9 rushing TDs on 517 carries (57.4 Carries Per TD) since the 2023 season– 5th-best in FBS; Average: 24.3

UCLA has averaged a sack every 32.2 pass attempts (161 Pass Attempts/5 Sacks) this season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 12.4

UCLA has allowed 8 rushing TDs on 78 carries (9.8 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 4.9

Penn State Nittany Lions Defensive Stats & Trends

Penn State has sacked opposing QBs on 14% of pass attempts (61/447) since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%

Penn State has sacked opposing QBs on 14% of pass attempts (61/447) since the 2023 season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 8%

Penn State has sacked opposing QBs on 14% of pass attempts (61/447) since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 7%

Penn State has tackled opponents for a loss on 8 of 32 rushing attempts (25% TFL%) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11%.

Penn State sacked opposing QBs on 28% of pass attempts (7/25) last week– best in FBS; Average: 7%