- USC is a -6 point favorite vs. Michigan
- USC vs. Michigan Total(Over/Under): 46.5 points
- TV Channel: CBS
The USC Trojans (2-0) visit Michigan Stadium to take on the Michigan Wolverines (2-1) on Sep. 21 in Ann Arbor, MI. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EDT.
USC is a betting favorite in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -6 (-105).
The USC vs. Michigan Over/Under is 46.5 total points.
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USC vs. Michigan Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| USC | -6 -105 | 46.5 -110 | -250 |
| Michigan | +6 -115 | 46.5 -110 | +190 |
USC vs Michigan Prediction:
The winning team model predicts USC will win this game with 65.2% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both USC and Michigan, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
USC vs Michigan Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Michigan will cover the spread with 70.4% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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USC Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- USC has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)
- USC has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.95 Units / 30% ROI)
- USC has hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 away games (+1.55 Units / 8% ROI)
- USC has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 away games (+1.00 Units / 6% ROI)
- USC has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 12 games (+0.20 Units / 1% ROI)
Michigan Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Michigan has hit the 1H Moneyline in 13 of their last 14 games (+12.00 Units / 11% ROI)
- Michigan has hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 14 games (+12.00 Units / 2% ROI)
- Michigan have covered the 1Q Spread in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.55 Units / 26% ROI)
- Michigan has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 9 of their last 15 games (+3.60 Units / 21% ROI)
- Michigan have covered the Spread in 9 of their last 15 games (+3.55 Units / 22% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for USC players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best USC Player Prop Bets Today
- Zachariah Branch has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 87% ROI)
- Lake McRee has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Miller Moss has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 77% ROI)
- Miller Moss has hit the TD Passes Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 74% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Michigan players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Michigan Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Donovan Edwards has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 82% ROI)
- Donovan Edwards has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+3.45 Units / 35% ROI)
- Colston Loveland has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 4 of his last 5 games at home (+2.75 Units / 45% ROI)
- Colston Loveland has hit the Receptions Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 56% ROI)
USC Against the Spread (ATS) Record
USC is 2-0 against the spread this college football season (+2 Units / 88.89% ROI).
- USC is 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.55 Units / 155% ROI
- USC is 0-2 when betting the Over for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI
- USC is 2-0 when betting the Under for +2 Units / 90.91% ROI
Michigan Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Michigan is 0-3 against the spread this college football season (-3.25 Units / -100% ROI).
- Michigan is 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 3.29% ROI
- Michigan is 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
- Michigan is 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
USC: Keys to the Game vs. Michigan
USC is undefeated (5-0) when not losing a fumble since the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .498
USC is undefeated (8-0) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: .524
USC is 9-4 (.643) when passing for more than 200 yards since the 2023 season– T-28th-best in FBS; Average: .480
USC is 15-1 (.938) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2022 season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: .538
Michigan: Keys to the Game vs. USC
Michigan is undefeated (13-0) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: .495
Michigan is undefeated (12-0) when making 7 or more explosive plays since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: .526
Michigan is 28-1 (.966) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times since the 2022 season– best in FBS; Average: .495
Michigan is 25-1 (.962) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2022 season– best in FBS; Average: .446
Matchup Notes for USC vs. Michigan
Michigan has gained 459 yards on 51 receptions (just 9.0 YPR) this season — 5th-worst among FBS skill players. USC’s defense has allowed just 8.7 Yards Per Reception this season — 5th-best among Big Ten defenses.
Michigan’s TEs has gained 246 yards on 24 receptions (just 10.2 YPR) this season — 5th-worst among Big Ten TEs. USC’s defense has allowed just 8.7 Yards Per Reception this season — T-16th-best among FBS defenses.
Michigan’s TEs has 24 receptions in 3 games (8.0 per game) this season — T-best among Big Ten TEs. USC’s defense has allowed 23.5 receptions per game this season — T-13th-worst among FBS defenses.
USC’s QBs has thrown for 4,987 passing yards in 15 games (332.5 YPG) since the 2023 season — 3rd-best among FBS teams. Michigan’s defense has allowed just 169.9 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 5th-best among FBS defenses.
USC’s WRs has gained 4,110 yards on 289 receptions (14.2 YPR) since the 2023 season — T-3rd-best among Big Ten WRs. Michigan’s defense has allowed just 8.7 Yards Per Reception to TEs since the 2023 season — 10th-best among FBS defenses.
USC’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 14.8% of 534 attempts since the 2023 season — 8th-best among FBS offenses. Michigan’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 6.4% of attempts since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst among Big Ten defenses.
USC Offensive Stats & Trends
USC RBs have averaged 8.3 yards from scrimmage per touch (575 yards / 69 touches) in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.4
USC’s QBs has thrown for 4,987 passing yards in 15 games (332.5 YPG) since the 2023 season — 3rd-best among FBS teams. Michigan’s defense has allowed just 169.9 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 5th-best among FBS defenses.
USC’s WRs has gained 4,110 yards on 289 receptions (14.2 YPR) since the 2023 season — T-3rd-best among Big Ten WRs. Michigan’s defense has allowed just 8.7 Yards Per Reception to TEs since the 2023 season — 10th-best among FBS defenses.
USC’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 14.8% of 534 attempts since the 2023 season — 8th-best among FBS offenses. Michigan’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 6.4% of attempts since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst among Big Ten defenses.
USC’s TEs has 14 receptions in 2 games (7.0 per game) this season — T-3rd-best among P5 TEs. Michigan’s defense has allowed 24.0 receptions per game this season — T-9th-worst among FBS defenses.
Michigan Offensive Stats & Trends
Michigan TEs have 9 receptions in the 4th quarter this season– T-most among FBS Teams
Michigan TEs have 9 receptions in close and late situations this season– most among FBS Teams
Michigan has gained 459 yards on 51 receptions (just 9.0 YPR) this season — 5th-worst among FBS skill players. USC’s defense has allowed just 8.7 Yards Per Reception this season — 5th-best among Big Ten defenses.
Michigan TEs have 9 receptions in close and late situations this season– most among Power Conference Teams
Michigan’s TEs has gained 246 yards on 24 receptions (just 10.2 YPR) this season — 5th-worst among Big Ten TEs. USC’s defense has allowed just 8.7 Yards Per Reception this season — T-16th-best among FBS defenses.
USC Trojans Defensive Stats & Trends
USC has allowed 3.7 touchdowns per interception (33 TDs allowed, and 9 INT) since the 2023 season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 1.4
USC has allowed 12 TDs in close and late situations since the 2023 season– most in the Big Ten
USC has allowed a Completion Pct of 73% (60 completions/82 attempts) in close and late situations since the 2023 season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 57%
USC has allowed 18 first down receptions in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– most in the Big Ten
USC has allowed a Completion Pct of 100% (12 completions/12 attempts) on 3rd and short since the 2022 season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 61%
Michigan Wolverines Defensive Stats & Trends
Michigan opponents has averaged 45.3 Passing Attempts per TD (906 Pass Attempts/20 Passing TDs) since the 2022 season– best in FBS; Average: 20.4
Michigan opponents has averaged 45.3 Passing Attempts per TD (906 Pass Attempts/20 Passing TDs) since the 2022 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 21.6
Michigan opponents has averaged 6.2 Passing Attempts per TD (74 Pass Attempts/12 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone since the 2022 season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 4.0
Michigan opponents averaged 51.6 Passing Attempts per TD (413 Pass Attempts/8 Passing TDs) in the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 21.2
Michigan has allowed 6 TD passes this season– most in the Big Ten
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