- Notre Dame is a -22.5 point favorite vs. Virginia
- Virginia vs. Notre Dame Total (Over/Under): 50.5 points
- TV Channel: NBC | PEAC
The Virginia Cavaliers (5-4) visit Notre Dame Stadium to take on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-1) on Nov. 16 in Notre Dame, IN. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EST.
Notre Dame is a betting favorite in Week 12, with the spread sitting at -22.5 (-110).
The Virginia vs. Notre Dame Over/Under is 50.5 total points.
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Virginia vs. Notre Dame Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Virginia | +22.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +1100 |
| Notre Dame | -22.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -2500 |
Virginia vs Notre Dame Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Notre Dame will win this game with 95.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Virginia and Notre Dame, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Virginia vs Notre Dame Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Virginia will cover the spread with 89.9% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Virginia Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Virginia has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.70 Units / 45% ROI)
- Virginia has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.70 Units / 38% ROI)
- Virginia have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.70 Units / 31% ROI)
- Virginia has hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 4 away games (+3.40 Units / 68% ROI)
- Virginia have covered the 1Q Spread in their last 3 away games (+3.05 Units / 84% ROI)
Notre Dame Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Notre Dame have covered the Spread in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.80 Units / 58% ROI)
- Notre Dame has hit the 1Q Moneyline in their last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 24% ROI)
- Notre Dame has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)
- Notre Dame has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.65 Units / 13% ROI)
- Notre Dame have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.45 Units / 11% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Virginia players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Virginia Player Prop Bets Today
- Tyler Neville has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 82% ROI)
- Malachi Fields has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Anthony Colandrea has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.10 Units / 110% ROI)
- Anthony Colandrea has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Kobe Pace has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Notre Dame players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Notre Dame Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Jaden Greathouse has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 87% ROI)
- Riley Leonard has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 87% ROI)
- Jeremiyah Love has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Beaux Collins has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 78% ROI)
- Riley Leonard has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 48% ROI)
Virginia Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Virginia is 6-2 against the spread this college football season (+3.8 Units / 38.58% ROI).
- Virginia is 5-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.2 Units / 4.91% ROI
- Virginia is 3-6 when betting the Over for -3.6 Units / -36.36% ROI
- Virginia is 6-3 when betting the Under for +2.7 Units / 27.27% ROI
Notre Dame Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Notre Dame is 7-2 against the spread this college football season (+4.8 Units / 47.76% ROI).
- Notre Dame is 8-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -71.75 Units / -34.61% ROI
- Notre Dame is 5-4 when betting the Over for +0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI
- Notre Dame is 4-5 when betting the Under for -1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI
Virginia: Keys to the Game vs. Notre Dame
Virginia is 7-8 (.467) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2023 season– 10th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .671
Virginia is 7-8 (.467) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2023 season– 30th-worst in FBS; Average: .621
Virginia is 2-10 (.167) when not forcing a fumble since the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .513
Virginia is 2-6 (.250) when losing at least one fumble since the 2023 season– T-13th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .463
Notre Dame: Keys to the Game vs. Virginia
Notre Dame is 16-1 (.941) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .650
Notre Dame is 16-1 (.941) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: .606
Notre Dame is 13-3 (.812) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-5th-best in FBS; Average: .446
Notre Dame is 18-4 (.818) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2023 season– 14th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .676
Matchup Notes for Virginia vs. Notre Dame
Notre Dame’s QBs has thrown for 1,762 passing yards in 9 games (just 195.8 YPG) this season — T-34th-worst among FBS teams. Virginia’s defense has allowed 262.9 passing yards per game this season — 17th-worst among FBS defenses.
Notre Dame’s QBs has thrown for 1,762 passing yards in 9 games (just 195.8 YPG) this season — T-34th-worst among FBS teams. Virginia’s defense has allowed 262.9 passing yards per game this season — 3rd-worst among ACC defenses.
Notre Dame’s offense has thrown for 1,776 passing yards in 9 games (just 197.3 YPG) this season — 35th-worst among FBS offenses. Virginia’s defense has allowed 262.9 passing yards per game this season — 17th-worst among FBS defenses.
Virginia’s RBs have 44.0 receiving yards per game this season — 11th-best among FBS RBs. Notre Dame’s defense has allowed 30.4 receiving yards per game to RBs this season — 33rd-worst among FBS defenses.
Virginia’s RBs has gained 396 yards on 33 receptions (12.0 YPR) this season — 13th-best among FBS RBs. Notre Dame’s defense has allowed 11.0 Yards Per Reception to RBs this season — T-13th-worst among FBS defenses.
Virginia’s RBs have 44.0 receiving yards per game this season — 11th-best among FBS RBs. Notre Dame’s defense has allowed just 148.6 receiving yards per game this season — 2nd-best among FBS defenses.
Virginia Offensive Stats & Trends
Virginia Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 5.2 receptions (21 Rec/4 TDs) in the Red Zone this season– 2nd-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.1
Virginia Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 5.2 receptions (21 Rec/4 TDs) in the Red Zone this season– 2nd-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 2.1
Virginia Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 3.4 receptions (47 Rec/14 TDs) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-3rd-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 2.1
Virginia WRs have averaged a touchdown every 3.7 receptions (26 Rec/7 TDs) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 3rd-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 2.0
Virginia WRs have averaged a touchdown every 3.7 receptions (26 Rec/7 TDs) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.0
Notre Dame Offensive Stats & Trends
Notre Dame QBs have rushed for 14 TDs this season– T-3rd-most among FBS Teams
Notre Dame’s QBs has thrown for 1,762 passing yards in 9 games (just 195.8 YPG) this season — T-34th-worst among FBS teams. Virginia’s defense has allowed 262.9 passing yards per game this season — 17th-worst among FBS defenses.
Notre Dame RBs picked up first downs on 4 receptions last week– most among FBS Teams
Notre Dame’s QBs has thrown for 1,762 passing yards in 9 games (just 195.8 YPG) this season — T-34th-worst among FBS teams. Virginia’s defense has allowed 262.9 passing yards per game this season — 3rd-worst among ACC defenses.
Notre Dame TEs have caught 6 touchdown passes in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams
Virginia Cavaliers Defensive Stats & Trends
Virginia has averaged a sack every 26.2 pass attempts (680 Pass Attempts/26 Sacks) since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.0
Virginia has no interceptions (72 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 38.5
Virginia has averaged a sack every 26.2 pass attempts (680 Pass Attempts/26 Sacks) since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 14.4
Virginia has sacked opposing QBs on just 4% of pass attempts (26/680) since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%
Virginia has sacked opposing QBs on just 4% of pass attempts (26/680) since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 7%
Notre Dame Fighting Irish Defensive Stats & Trends
Notre Dame opponents has averaged 43.9 Passing Attempts per TD (615 Pass Attempts/14 Passing TDs) since the 2023 season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 20.4
Notre Dame has allowed 5 rushing TDs on 327 carries (65.4 Carries Per TD) this season– 5th-best in FBS; Average: 23.4
Notre Dame has allowed opponents to catch just 313 of 605 passes (52% Reception Pct) since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 61%
Notre Dame has allowed 153.7 Passing Yards per game (3,382/22) since the 2023 season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 221.0
Notre Dame has allowed a Completion Pct of just 51% (313 completions/615 attempts) since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 61%
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