In online sports betting, key numbers are the margins at which games most often end. Experienced bettors always consider key numbers as reference points when considering a wager.
Consider college basketball odds, where the closest thing to a key number is 5.5. Because of the fouling and free throws at the end of games, many winning margins are often popped out to around five or six points.
Experienced college basketball bettors like to get favorites at -5 or less because they are underneath the key number. Alternatively, they may target underdogs at +6 or longer because they’re on the far side of the key number.
Key Numbers in NFL & College Football Betting
In both NFL and college football betting, three and seven have long been the two most powerful key numbers in the sport. Many games end with either 3-point margins or 7-point margins because of the field goal and touchdown and extra point score values.
About 1 in 7 NFL games ends with a 3-point margin, which is the most common differential in the sport. Thus, 2.5-point margins are lucrative spreads for favorite bettors, and 3.5-point margins are lucrative spreads for underdog bettors.
Six has become an increasingly key number in the NFL in recent years, thanks in part to how analytics have driven some teams to go for two more frequently after touchdowns.
Key numbers are slightly less powerful in college football, where blowouts and odd scores are more common.
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