- The Astros are -110 favorites vs the Phillies
- Astros vs Phillies Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
- Astros / Phillies TV Channel: NSPA | SCHN | MLBN
The Houston Astros (-110) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-110) on Wednesday, August 28, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA.
This season, the Astros are 70-62 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 66-66 ATS.
Astros vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:
- Astros starting pitcher: Spencer Arrighetti 6-11, 4.98 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Taijuan Walker 3-5, 6.37 ERA
Astros vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | -1.5 +145 | O 10 -105 | -110 |
| Phillies | +1.5 -175 | U 10 -115 | -110 |
Astros vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 53.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 24 away games (+49.90 Units / 208% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 away games (+15.80 Units / 33% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 26 of his last 45 games (+12.35 Units / 26% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the RBIs Over in 10 of his last 16 away games (+11.30 Units / 71% ROI)
- Mauricio Dubon has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+10.85 Units / 25% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 24 games at home (+12.55 Units / 27% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Total Bases Under in 25 of his last 37 games (+12.15 Units / 25% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the RBIs Under in 33 of his last 45 games (+9.95 Units / 12% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Singles Under in 29 of his last 44 games (+9.40 Units / 16% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Walks Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+9.20 Units / 65% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 69 of their last 115 games (+20.40 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 43 of their last 74 games (+13.65 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 14 away games (+10.35 Units / 64% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 59 games (+10.35 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 16 away games (+10.10 Units / 50% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 38 of their last 56 games at home (+15.30 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 39 of their last 58 games at home (+15.25 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 26 of their last 40 games (+11.15 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 35 games at home (+10.15 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 57 games at home (+9.95 Units / 9% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 66-66 against the Run Line (+0.9 Units / 0.55% ROI).
- 70-62 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.65 Units / -5.13% ROI
- 52-77 when betting on the total runs Over for -32 Units / -22.17% ROI
- 77-52 when betting on the total runs Under for +19.55 Units / 13.36% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 66-66 against the Run Line (-2.25 Units / -1.4% ROI).
- 78-54 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.25 Units / -0.12% ROI
- 61-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -12 Units / -8.24% ROI
- 66-61 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.45 Units / -1% ROI
Phillies vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -300 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Phillies vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Victor Caratini (HOU) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Jake Meyers (HOU) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Phillies vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 -105 | 0.5 -125 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Alex Bregman (HOU) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
Phillies vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Arrighetti (HOU) | 5.5 -120 | 5.5 -110 |
| Taijuan Walker (PHI) | 3.5 +125 | 3.5 -165 |
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 13% (2/15) against Spencer Arrighetti in his last two starts — 2nd lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 42% — second Percentile.
Spencer Arrighetti has struck out 45% (29/64) of left-handed batters he faced this month (4 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Spencer Arrighetti has a strikeout rate of 47% (17 SO in 36 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this month (4 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Spencer Arrighetti has a strikeout rate of 38% (36 SO in 94 PAs) this month (4 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Taijuan Walker has allowed a slugging percentage of .539 (137 Total Bases / 254 ABs) this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 52 total IP; League Avg: .404 — second Percentile.
Hitters have chased just 180 of Taijuan Walker’s 853 breaking balls out of the zone (chase rate of 21%) since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 182 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 17% (81/473) against Taijuan Walker this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 52 total IP; League Avg: 25% — third Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .338 (25 GB hits out of 74 GBs) against Taijuan Walker this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 52 total IP; League Avg: .245 — second Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Astros are just 0-47 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .054.
The Astros are just 10-21 (.323) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Astros are 58-38 (.604) after a road loss since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .463.
The Astros are just 3-11 (.214) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Phillies are 68-12 (.850) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .726.
The Phillies are 18-11 (.621) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .422.
The Phillies are 30-14 (.682) after a home win this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .517.
The Phillies are 7-2 (.778) after a win as underdogs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .414.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters are averaging just 3.65 pitches per plate appearance this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
14% of Astros’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (1,592/11,240 PA’s) since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 11%.
Astros hitters are averaging just 3.66 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Astros hitters are slugging .494 in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .371.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies are batting .338 against LHP this month (22 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
The Phillies are batting .276 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Phillies hitters are slugging .451 against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .411.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .392 (245 PA’s) against LHP this month (22 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .311.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros pitchers have walked 466 of 4,925 batters (10%) this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Phillies pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Phillies pitchers this month (24 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 825 of 10,976 batters (7%) since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 53% against Phillies pitchers over the past seven days (7 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Phillies vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Philadelphia Phillies – No Injuries Reported
- Houston Astros – No Injuries Reported
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