The Chicago Cubs (+110) visit Goodyear Ballpark to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-130) on Wednesday, March 13, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Goodyear, AZ.
This season, the Cubs are 7-5 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 6-7 ATS.
Cubs vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Moneyline | |
| Cubs | +110 |
| Guardians | -130 |
Cubs vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 53.1% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:
- Miles Mastrobuoni has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+8.75 Units / 58% ROI)
- Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Hits Under in his last 3 games (+5.40 Units / 180% ROI)
- Matt Mervis has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 7 of his last 10 games (+3.45 Units / 26% ROI)
- Alexander Canario has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 52% ROI)
- Miguel Amaya has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 39% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Myles Straw has hit the Runs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Hits Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.95 Units / 42% ROI)
- Jose Tena has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Will Brennan has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.90 Units / 83% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 66 games (+9.21 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 32 games (+8.75 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 57 of their last 100 games (+5.95 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 games (+0.05 Units / 1% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 76 games at home (+22.70 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 64 of their last 120 games (+6.20 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 34 games (+4.72 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 62 games at home (+4.25 Units / 5% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Cubs are 8-6 against the Run Line (+1.71 Units / 9.61% ROI).
- 7-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.61 Units / 9.29% ROI
- 5-9 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.83 Units / -31.47% ROI
- 9-5 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.52 Units / 22.78% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Guardians are 6-7 against the Run Line (-1.98 Units / -11.4% ROI).
- 5-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.19 Units / -20.75% ROI
- 5-7 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.62 Units / -18.69% ROI
- 7-5 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.32 Units / 9.05% ROI
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kyle Hendricks has averaged 87.2 MPH on fastballs since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 93.4 — 0 Percentile.
Kyle Hendricks located 70% of his pitches away (399/571) with two-strikes in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 100th Percentile.
Kyle Hendricks has averaged 87.6 MPH on fastballs in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 93.5 — first Percentile.
Kyle Hendricks threw his changeup 66% of the time (376/571) with two-strikes in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total CH; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tanner Bibee allowed an OPS of just .542 (270 PA’s) vs left-handed batters in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .746 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents had a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 24% (25/103) against Tanner Bibee on sliders in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 37% — 97th Percentile.
Tanner Bibee allowed a slugging percentage of just .270 (66 Total Bases / 244 ABs) vs left-handed batters in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .426 — 99th Percentile.
Tanner Bibee elevated 46% of his pitches (222/481) when ahead in the count in the 2023 season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 96th Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Cubs were just 7-12 (.368) when tied entering the 7th inning in the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cubs were just 10-20 (.333) after a win as underdogs in the 2023 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .433.
The Cubs are just 33-38 (.465) after a loss as favorites since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .584.
The Cubs were 27-4 (.871) when they had 5 or more XBH in the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .790.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Guardians were just 5-15 (.250) when tied entering the 7th inning in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Guardians were just 5-15 (.250) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Guardians are 34-114 (.230) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .129.
The Guardians were 18-57 (.240) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .141.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters had an OBP of .264 (3,361 PA’s) with two-strikes in the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
The Cubs batted .287 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Cubs hitters slugged .509 in lefty-lefty matchups in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .376.
Cubs hitters had an OBP of .352 (720 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .330.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters struck out just 791 times in 4,186 PA’s (19%) against RHP in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Guardians hitters struck out just 1,142 times in 6,096 PA’s (19%) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters had a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 33% in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.3 MPH (4,045 batted balls) in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 43% of their games since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .220 against Cubs pitchers in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .233 against Cubs pitchers with runners on base in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .259.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 41% against Guardians pitchers in the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Guardians pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 110 MPH 100 times since last season — tied for 2nd fewest in MLB.
Guardians pitchers had allowed 173 home runs in the 2023 season — tied for fewest in MLB.
The Guardians pitchers have allowed the 28th hardest ball in play hit (119.2 MPH) in the 2023 season (; League Avg: 117.2).
Guardians vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, Out
- Gabriel Arias (Cleveland Guardians): Wrist, Out
- Logan Allen (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, Out
- James Karinchak (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, Out
- Codi Heuer (Chicago Cubs): Elbow, Out
- Brad Boxberger (Chicago Cubs): Forearm, Out
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