- The Cubs (47-67) are -165 favorites vs the Nationals (39-78)
- Cubs starting pitcher: Justin Steele (4-7), 3.63 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Patrick Corbin (4-16), 7.01 ERA
- Watch the game on MASN2
The Chicago Cubs (-165) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+135) on Tuesday, August 16, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Washington.
The Cubs are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+100).
The Cubs vs Nationals Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Cubs are 47-67 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 49-68 ATS.
Cubs vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | -1.5 +100 | O 8.5 -105 | -165 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -120 | U 8.5 -115 | +135 |
Cubs vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 52.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 47 of his last 60 games (+22.50 Units / 18% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Over in 42 of his last 65 games (+19.00 Units / 21% ROI)
- Rafael Ortega has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 26 games (+18.55 Units / 63% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Total Bases Over in 26 of his last 43 games (+16.20 Units / 37% ROI)
- Frank Schwindel has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 19 away games (+16.10 Units / 42% ROI)
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Riley Adams has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+9.55 Units / 35% ROI)
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 12 games at home (+8.85 Units / 31% ROI)
- Joey Meneses has hit the Singles Over in his last 8 games (+8.60 Units / 103% ROI)
- Joey Meneses has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 53% ROI)
- Joan Adon has hit the Earned Runs Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+7.15 Units / 53% ROI)
Nationals vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luke Voit | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -450 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Nelson Velazquez | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Nick Madrigal | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
Nationals vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luke Voit | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +135 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +125 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +180 |
| Nelson Velazquez | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +110 |
| Nick Madrigal | 1.5 +145 | 1.5 -200 |
Nationals vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luke Voit | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -200 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -200 |
| Nelson Velazquez | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| Nick Madrigal | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -275 |
Nationals vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Corbin | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -155 |
| Justin Steele | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -155 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Cubs Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 37 games (+11.10 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 21 of their last 37 games (+7.85 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 45 away games (+5.10 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 25 of their last 45 away games (+5.05 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 21 away games (+2.95 Units / 13% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Nationals: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 62 of their last 104 games (+19.90 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 43 games at home (+7.25 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 11 games at home (+4.40 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 6 games at home (+1.40 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 games (+1.15 Units / 19% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 58-56 against the Run Line (-6.35 Units / -4.31% ROI).
- 47-67 when betting on the Moneyline for -18.25 Units / -14.05% ROI
- 49-58 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.55 Units / -11.61% ROI
- 58-49 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.25 Units / 3.38% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 49-68 against the Run Line (-27.4 Units / -19.13% ROI).
- 39-78 when betting on the Moneyline for -21 Units / -17.31% ROI
- 58-52 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.85 Units / 0.65% ROI
- 52-58 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.15 Units / -8.71% ROI
Justin Steele: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .126 (19-for-151) against Justin Steele’s non-fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: .226 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 14% (3/21) against Justin Steele against right-handed batters — 2nd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 40% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .130 (19-for-146) against Justin Steele’s curve and slider this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: .224 — 100th Percentile.
Justin Steele has a strikeout rate of 42% (19 SO in 45 PAs) this month (2 games) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 21% — 99th Percentile.
Patrick Corbin: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Division opponents are hitting .358 (78-for-218) against Patrick Corbin this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: .245 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .322 (58-for-180) against Patrick Corbin’s non-fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: .226 — 0 Percentile.
Patrick Corbin has an ERA of 9.44 (47.2 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: 4.02 — 0 Percentile.
Patrick Corbin has allowed an OPS of .952 (352 PA’s) versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: .681 — 0 Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Cubs are just 3-52 (.055) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .113.
The Cubs are just 17-99 (.147) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .268.
The Cubs are just 19-53 (.264) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.
The Cubs are just 24-34 (.414) at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .531.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Nationals are just 19-42 (.311) at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .531.
The Nationals are just 67-105 (.390) at home since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .538.
The Nationals are just 12-70 (.146) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.
The Nationals are just 106-16 (.869) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .913.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters have grounded into 48 double plays in 337 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Cubs hitters have put just 34% of their swings in play with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of just .376 (66 PA’s) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .643.
The Cubs have a winning percentage of just 41% at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 38% at home since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 31% at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters have an OBP of .330 (5,293 PA’s) on the road since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .309.
Nationals hitters have grounded into 269 double plays in 2,057 opportunities (13%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have won only 16% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 20%.
Cubs pitchers have won only 18% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Cubs pitchers have won only 13% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.94 (468.0 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.17.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .306 against Nationals pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Nationals pitchers have allowed innings of 3+ runs in 9% of innings played this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 6%.
Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 6.39 (107.0 IP) over the last 14 days (13 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.93.
Nationals vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Erick Fedde (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- MacKenzie Gore (Nationals): Elbow, D15
- Luis García (Nationals): Groin, D10
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D60
- Seth Romero (Nationals): Calf, D60
- William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
- Jackson Tetreault (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D60
- Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
- Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Wade Miley (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Manuel Rodríguez (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Steven Brault (Cubs): COVID, D10
- Michael Hermosillo (Cubs): Quad, D60
- Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D15
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D10
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