- The – are favorites vs the –
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Kenneth Kelly
- Yankees starting pitcher: Clarke Schmidt
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Arizona Diamondbacks () visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees () on Monday, September 25, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Bronx.
The – are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at ().
The Diamondbacks vs Yankees Over/Under is total runs for the game.
This season, the Diamondbacks are 82-73 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 75-80 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | O | ||
| Yankees | U |
Diamondbacks vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 58.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Diamondbacks and Yankees and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:
- Evan Longoria has hit the Runs Under in his last 14 games (+14.00 Units / 51% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 40 games (+12.00 Units / 13% ROI)
- Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 21 games (+10.50 Units / 50% ROI)
- Ryne Nelson has hit the Strikeouts Under in 20 of his last 27 games (+10.00 Units / 26% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Total Bases Under in 23 of his last 33 games (+9.95 Units / 18% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Anthony Volpe has hit the Singles Under in 28 of his last 38 games (+13.30 Units / 24% ROI)
- Anthony Volpe has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+10.95 Units / 47% ROI)
- Ben Rortvedt has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 13 games at home (+10.00 Units / 69% ROI)
- Anthony Volpe has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 20 games at home (+9.90 Units / 50% ROI)
- Anthony Volpe has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+8.65 Units / 16% ROI)
Yankees vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Oswald Peraza | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
Yankees vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Walker | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Oswald Peraza | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Yankees vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Oswald Peraza | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
Yankees vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Clarke Schmidt | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -130 |
| Merrill Kelly | 6.5 -135 | 6.5 +100 |
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 75 games (+11.85 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 29 away games (+10.98 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 29 away games (+10.09 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 39 games (+9.25 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 84 of their last 152 games (+8.10 Units / 4% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 52 games at home (+11.00 Units / 18% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 36 games at home (+8.70 Units / 22% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 25 games (+6.30 Units / 20% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 40 games at home (+4.83 Units / 10% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 37 of their last 80 games at home (+3.80 Units / 3% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 85-70 against the Run Line (+6.6 Units / 3.3% ROI).
- 82-73 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.6 Units / 3.97% ROI
- 68-79 when betting on the total runs Over for -20.65 Units / -11.89% ROI
- 79-68 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.8 Units / 3.46% ROI
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 75-80 against the Run Line (-9.95 Units / -5.14% ROI).
- 78-77 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.55 Units / -5.67% ROI
- 70-79 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.4 Units / -9.65% ROI
- 79-70 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.95 Units / 1.14% ROI
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Merrill Kelly has walked 23 of 193 batters (12%) versus the bottom of the order this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — second Percentile.
Merrill Kelly has walked 7 of 51 batters (14%) — 5th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% — fifth Percentile.
53 of Merrill Kelly’s 177 strikeouts (30%) have come on changeups this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 93rd Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .131 (94-for-718) against Merrill Kelly with two-strikes since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 126 total IP; League Avg: .171 — 97th Percentile.
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 17% (55/318) against Clarke Schmidt since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 126 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Clarke Schmidt has a first-pitch strike rate of just 43% (9/21) over the past seven days (1 games) — tied for lowest in AL over the last week; League Avg: 64% — third Percentile.
Clarke Schmidt has a strikeout rate of just 9% (4 SO in 46 PAs) over the last 14 days (2 games) — lowest in AL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 25% — second Percentile.
Clarke Schmidt has struck out just 4% (1/23) of left-handed batters he faced — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Diamondbacks are just 132-13 (.910) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .951.
The Diamondbacks are just 116-21 (.847) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .908.
The Diamondbacks are 12-6 (.667) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Diamondbacks are just 55-36 (.604) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .698.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Yankees are 19-16 (.543) after a win as underdogs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .419.
The Yankees are 108-28 (.794) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .698.
The Yankees were 20-24 (.455) when allowing 5 or more runs in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .195.
The Yankees are 57-33 (.633) after a home win since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .538.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have an OPS of just .685 (3,330 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .727.
Diamondbacks hitters have just 324 strikeouts in 1,641 PA’s (20%) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Diamondbacks have barrels in 2% of PA’s since last season (184/11,816) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3%.
Diamondbacks hitters have put 39% of their swings in play against LHP since last season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters have a groundball batting average of just .212 this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Yankees are batting just .224 at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .252.
The Yankees are batting just .226 this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
The Yankees are batting just .214 with two outs since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .237.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.7 MPH (3,915 batted balls) this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the 2021 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .215 against Yankees pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .259.
Yankees pitchers won 56% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home in 2022 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .217 against Yankees pitchers with runners on base since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .253.
Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Yankees vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Keynan Middleton (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
- Jonathan Loáisiga (Yankees): Elbow, D15
- Luis Severino (Yankees): Side, D15
- Scott Effross (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- James Weber (Yankees): Forearm, D60
- Luis Gil (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Francelis Montas (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Anthony Misiewicz (Yankees): Head, D7
- Albert Abreu (Yankees): Hamstring, D15
- Wandy Peralta (Yankees): Tricep, D15
- William McKinney (Yankees): Back, D10
- Jose Trevino (Yankees): Wrist, D60
- Thomas Kahnle (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
- Anthony Rizzo (Yankees): Concussion, D60
- Nestor Cortes (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Lou Trivino (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Jasson Domínguez (Yankees): Elbow, D10
- Dominic Fletcher (Diamondbacks): Finger, D60
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Scott McGough (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D15
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Austin Adams (Diamondbacks): Ankle, D60
- Thomas Henry (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Drey Jameson (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Ketel Marte (Diamondbacks): Illness, Day-to-Day
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