With the 2025 MLB campaign just around the corner, it won’t be long until players start launching home runs into the seats of ballparks across the world (the regular season begins in Tokyo this year).
One of the more interesting statistical battles to monitor each season is which player will lead the majors in home runs. In 2024, the title of MLB’s home run king belonged to New York Yankees’ Aaron Judge, who crushed 58 home runs.
Judge is the preseason MLB betting favorite to lead the league in homers again in 2025, but could someone dethrone him this season?
MLB Home Run Leader Odds 2025
| Player | Team | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | Yankees | +260 |
| Shohei Ohtani | Dodgers | +500 |
| Kyle Schwarber | Phillies | +1100 |
| Pete Alonso | Mets | +1600 |
| Yordan Alvarez | Astros | +1600 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | Padres | +1800 |
| Matt Olson | Braves | +2000 |
| Brent Rooker | Athletics | +2500 |
| Juan Soto | Mets | +3000 |
| Gunnar Henderson | Orioles | +3000 |
| Kyle Tucker | Cubs | +3500 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | Blue Jays | +3500 |
| Anthony Santander | Blue Jays | +4000 |
| Rafael Devers | Red Sox | +4000 |
| José Ramírez | Guardians | +4000 |
Home Run Leader Betting Favorite: Aaron Judge
Based on the latest MLB odds, Judge is a +260 favorite to lead the majors in home runs during the 2025 season. That gives him an implied probability of 27.78% to lead MLB in home runs for the second straight year.
Judge has paced all hitters in home runs in two of the past three seasons, hitting 62 in 2022.
In addition, 2022 marked the last time Judge wasn’t the preseason favorite to lead MLB in home runs. His preseason odds to be the home run king were +1300 that year, trailing Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+700) and Pete Alonso (+1000).
Here’s a look at Judge’s preseason odds to be MLB’s home run leader in recent years:
- 2024: +375
- 2023: +550
- 2022: +1300
- 2021: +2000
MLB Home Run Leader Predictions for 2025
According to every MLB projection system, Judge is expected to lead the way in home runs for the second straight season.
OOPSY, a projection system at FanGraphs, has Judge finishing with 57 home runs. That is 10 more than Shohei Ohtani. ZiPS forecasts 46 homers for Judge (one more than Ohtani), while THE BAT X has the Yankees slugger finishing with 48 blasts (six more than the Dodgers star).
Picking against Judge in this market could be silly, but the value isn’t on the betting favorite. It marks the shortest preseason price in this market since at least 2008, as home run leader odds weren’t tracked until 2009.
As a result, I prefer to target players further down the board, which is why Juan Soto (+3000) and Oneil Cruz (+15000) are my favorite predictions in the home run leader market.
Let’s start with the long shot, as I’m mostly taking a chance on Cruz’s raw tools. His average swing last season was 78.6 miles per hour, second behind Giancarlo Stanton (a two-time home run leader).
Cruz also ranked in the 97th percentile in barrel rate in 2024, which led to 21 home runs. He’s a long shot for a reason, but I’ll believe in Cruz’s upside entering his age-26 season with the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Soto, meanwhile, may have taken the final step of his offensive evolution last season.
His power has arrived.
Soto’s 41 home runs with the Yankees last year marked a career best, ranking in the 99th percentile in barrel and hard-hit rate.
ZiPS projects 33 home runs for Soto in his first season with the New York Mets, but there is a chance that the game’s most patient hitter might unleash his full powers this year after signing a 15-year, $765 million deal in the offseason.
MLB Home Run Leader Best Bets
- Juan Soto +3000
- Oneil Cruz +15000
MLB Home Run Leaders Year-by-Year
| Year | Player | Home Runs | Preseason Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Aaron Judge | 58 | +375 |
| 2023 | Matt Olson | 54 | +2500 |
| 2022 | Aaron Judge | 62 | +1300 |
| 2021 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. & Salvador Perez | 48 | Vlad +5000 & Salvy N/A |
| 2020 | Luke Volt | 22 | N/A |
| 2019 | Pete Alonso | 53 | N/A |
| 2018 | Khris Davis | 48 | +4000 |
| 2017 | Giancarlo Stanton | 59 | +750 |
| 2016 | Mark Trumbo | 47 | +5000 |
| 2015 | Chris Davis | 47 | +1800 |
| 2014 | Nelson Cruz | 40 | +3500 |
| 2013 | Chris Davis | 53 | +4000 |
| 2012 | Miguel Cabrera | 44 | +1000 |
| 2011 | Jose Bautista | 43 | +1800 |
| 2010 | Jose Bautista | 54 | N/A |
| 2009 | Albert Pujols | 47 | +1500 |
Who led MLB in Home Runs During the 2024 Season?
New York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge led MLB with 58 home runs during the 2024 season. It marked the second time he’s been MLB’s home run king in the last three years.
What is the Single-Season Record for Most Home Runs?
Barry Bonds holds the single-season record for most home runs in a single season with 73 as a member of the San Francisco Giants in 2001.
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