The Seattle Mariners (+120) visit Surprise Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (-145) on Wednesday, March 6, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 3:05pm EST in Surprise, AZ.
This season, the Mariners are 0-6 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 5-3 ATS.
Mariners vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Moneyline | |
| Mariners | +120 |
| Royals | -145 |
Mariners vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Royals will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 52.5% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today:
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Hits Under in his last 5 games (+5.80 Units / 49% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the RBIs Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+3.45 Units / 69% ROI)
- Cooper Hummel has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.35 Units / 56% ROI)
- Sam Haggerty has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jose Caballero has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 65% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Nick Loftin has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 8 games at home (+4.90 Units / 61% ROI)
- Nathan Eaton has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 65% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Stolen Bases Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Michael Massey has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Nathan Eaton has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 24 of their last 40 away games (+12.89 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 42 away games (+12.17 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 26 away games (+10.55 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 43 away games (+9.35 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 25 of their last 40 away games (+8.69 Units / 19% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 39 games at home (+14.97 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 39 games at home (+14.10 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 17 games (+13.10 Units / 77% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Over in 21 of their last 30 games at home (+11.08 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 39 games at home (+10.90 Units / 24% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Mariners are 3-4 against the Run Line (-1.28 Units / -13.5% ROI).
- 0-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.9 Units / -88.76% ROI
- 7-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +7 Units / 90.56% ROI
- 0-7 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.67 Units / -100% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Royals are 5-3 against the Run Line (+2.36 Units / 25.38% ROI).
- 7-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.3 Units / 57.12% ROI
- 2-6 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.5 Units / -52.02% ROI
- 6-2 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.75 Units / 41.67% ROI
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bryce Miller allowed a batting average of just .200 vs right-handed batters (eighth-best)– 94th Percentile and .303 vs left-handed batters in the 2023 season (tied for sixth-worst among non-qualified SPs)– seventh Percentile.
Bryce Miller allowed an OBP of just .234 (282 PA’s) against right-handed batters in the 2023 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .309 — 100th Percentile.
Bryce Miller threw fastballs 65% of the time (423/648) with two-strikes in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 99th Percentile.
Hitters swung at 67% of Bryce Miller’s pitches (431/648) with two-strikes in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 60% — 99th Percentile.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Angel Zerpa walked 8 of 182 batters (4%) in the 2023 season — 6th best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 9% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 20% (69/350) against Angel Zerpa in the 2023 season — 5th lowest among in AL; League Avg: 29% — fourth Percentile.
Angel Zerpa allowed a slugging percentage of .545 (67 Total Bases / 123 ABs) against right-handed batters in the 2023 season — 3rd highest among in AL; League Avg: .379 — third Percentile.
Angel Zerpa walked 8 of 182 batters (4%) in the 2023 season — 4th best among in AL; League Avg: 9% — 96th Percentile.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Mariners were 13-8 (.619) after a win as underdogs in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .433.
The Mariners are 44-6 (.880) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .796.
The Mariners were 64-13 (.831) when they scored 5 or more runs in the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .780.
The Mariners were 76-2 (.974) when leading entering the 9th inning in the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .948.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Royals are just 11-83 (.117) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .363.
The Royals were just 1-8 (.111) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Royals were just 17-12 (.586) when they had 5 or more XBH in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .790.
The Royals are just 9-15 (.375) after a loss as favorites since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .584.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mariners batted just .125 on pitches out of the zone in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .151.
Mariners hitters put just 33% of their swings in play against LHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Mariners hitters put just 33% of their swings in play with two-strikes in the 2023 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Mariners hitters struck out 1,603 times in 6,201 PA’s (26%) in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Royals have won just 52% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 72%.
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 30% on the road since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Royals hitters had an OBP of just .280 (2,958 PA’s) on the road in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Royals hitters had an OPS of just .649 (2,958 PA’s) on the road in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .723.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers walked 421 of 6,006 batters (7%) in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents had a swing rate of 50% against the Mariners pitchers in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Mariners pitchers had a strikeout rate of 29% in close and late situations in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Mariners pitchers had an ERA of 3.42 (744.0 IP) at home in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.23.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Royals won just 18% of games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
Royals pitchers picked-off 19 runners from first base in the 2023 season — best in MLB.
Royals pitchers had an ERA of 5.39 (674.0 IP) on the road in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.44.
Royals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes in the 2023 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Royals vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Freddy Fermin (Kansas City Royals): Finger, Out
- Kyle Wright (Kansas City Royals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- John McMillon (Kansas City Royals): Forearm, Out
- Austin Cox (Kansas City Royals): Knee, Out
- Brad Keller (Kansas City Royals): Shoulder, Out
- Josh Taylor (Kansas City Royals): Back, Out
- Carlos Hernandez (Kansas City Royals): Shoulder, Out
- Kris Bubic (Kansas City Royals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Mitch Haniger (Seattle Mariners): Back, Out
- Gregory Santos (Seattle Mariners): Lat, Out
- Eduard Bazardo (Seattle Mariners): Undisclosed, Out
- Matt Brash (Seattle Mariners): Arm, Out
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