- The Braves are -145 favorites vs the Mets
- Mets vs Braves Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Mets / Braves TV Channel: BSSO | SNY
The New York Mets (+120) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-145) on Tuesday, September 24, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta, GA.
This season, the Mets are 87-69 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 72-84 ATS.
Mets vs Braves Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mets starting pitcher: Luis Severino 11-6, 3.79 ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: Spencer Schwellenbach 7-7, 3.61 ERA
Mets vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | +1.5 -185 | O 8 -110 | +120 |
| Braves | -1.5 +150 | U 8 -110 | -145 |
Mets vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 54.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Luisangel Acuna has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games (+29.00 Units / 483% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 50 games (+15.95 Units / 19% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 29 of his last 44 games (+13.30 Units / 27% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Runs Over in 22 of his last 30 games (+12.55 Units / 34% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Over in 22 of his last 35 games (+10.75 Units / 28% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the RBIs Under in 34 of his last 40 games (+24.50 Units / 36% ROI)
- Gio Urshela has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games (+20.50 Units / 205% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 21 games at home (+15.30 Units / 61% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Singles Over in 27 of his last 40 games (+14.40 Units / 33% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 30 games (+13.00 Units / 38% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 63 of their last 97 games (+22.45 Units / 17% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 57 of their last 98 games (+18.05 Units / 15% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 59 of their last 100 games (+12.90 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 37 away games (+11.05 Units / 25% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 31 away games (+7.90 Units / 23% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 89 of their last 142 games (+35.85 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 34 games (+5.10 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games at home (+4.95 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 39 games (+2.70 Units / 4% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 81-75 against the Run Line (+4.5 Units / 2.27% ROI).
- 87-69 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.5 Units / 4.81% ROI
- 78-71 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.25 Units / -0.15% ROI
- 71-78 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.6 Units / -8.1% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 72-84 against the Run Line (-16.35 Units / -8.6% ROI).
- 85-71 when betting on the Moneyline for -22.4 Units / -8.81% ROI
- 58-92 when betting on the total runs Over for -42.1 Units / -24.73% ROI
- 92-58 when betting on the total runs Under for +28 Units / 16.17% ROI
Braves vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jorge Soler (ATL) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Braves vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gio Urshela (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Starling Marte (NYM) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Braves vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
Braves vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL) | 5.5 -130 | 5.5 +100 |
| Luis Severino (NYM) | 5.5 +120 | 5.5 -155 |
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Severino has thrown inside pitches 42% of the time (309/741) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .191 (47-for-246) against Luis Severino when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .231 — 90th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .269 (66-for-245) against Luis Severino when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 7th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — 13th Percentile.
Luis Severino has allowed an OBP of .327 (266 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 7th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .289 — 12th Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .062 (1-for-16) against Spencer Schwellenbach when going through the lineup the first time in a game in his last two starts — 5th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .204 — 94th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 30% (22/73) against Spencer Schwellenbach this month (4 games) — 3rd lowest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 43% — sixth Percentile.
Spencer Schwellenbach has struck out just 17% (8/47) of left-handed batters he faced this month (4 games) — tied for 8th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 17th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 27% (9/33) against Spencer Schwellenbach in his last two starts — 3rd lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 42% — third Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Mets are 7-56 (.111) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Mets are 10-48 (.172) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .099.
The Mets are 16-8 (.667) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Mets are 132-30 (.815) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .735.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Braves are 37-87 (.298) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .208.
The Braves are 39-38 (.506) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .374.
The Braves are 148-87 (.630) at home since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .526.
The Braves are just 9-18 (.333) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .412.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have an OBP of .330 (1,621 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Mets hitters are slugging .444 against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .398.
Mets hitters have an OPS of .774 (1,621 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .712.
Mets hitters have an OPS of .740 (9,208 PA’s) on the road since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .708.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .470 against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .405.
Braves hitters are slugging .460 since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .823 (2,896 PA’s) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
Braves hitters are slugging .485 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .409.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 562 of 5,878 batters (10%) this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Mets have won 100% of games in which their opponents scored first this month (20 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 27% of their games on the road in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.8 MPH this season (3,731 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.8
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Braves vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Atlanta Braves – No Injuries Reported
- New York Mets – No Injuries Reported
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