- The Mets are -115 favorites vs the Nationals
- Mets vs Nationals Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Mets / Nationals TV Channel: MASN | SNY
The New York Mets (-115) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (-105) on Tuesday, June 4, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45pm EDT in Washington, DC.
This season, the Mets are 25-35 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 36-23 ATS.
Mets vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mets starting pitcher: David Peterson 0-0, 3.60 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Trevor Williams 5-0, 2.27 ERA
Mets vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 +140 | O 9 -115 | -115 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -165 | U 9 -105 | -105 |
Mets vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 52.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Pete Alonso has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 21 away games (+14.35 Units / 52% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 away games (+14.00 Units / 350% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 25 of his last 34 games (+11.30 Units / 22% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 32 games (+9.95 Units / 21% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 24 games (+9.65 Units / 20% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Eddie Rosario has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 23 games (+20.90 Units / 91% ROI)
- Eddie Rosario has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 27 games (+14.45 Units / 53% ROI)
- Luis Garcia has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 28 games (+12.75 Units / 22% ROI)
- Eddie Rosario has hit the Singles Under in 29 of his last 40 games (+11.70 Units / 18% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 30 games (+11.25 Units / 24% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 23 away games (+11.40 Units / 44% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 17 of their last 25 away games (+8.00 Units / 26% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 16 of their last 23 away games (+7.85 Units / 27% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 26 away games (+6.85 Units / 21% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 25 away games (+4.25 Units / 16% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 33 of their last 51 games (+14.40 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 51 games (+11.10 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 51 games (+8.15 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 53 games (+7.80 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+6.35 Units / 36% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 26-34 against the Run Line (-11.55 Units / -14.59% ROI).
- 25-35 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.95 Units / -18.02% ROI
- 31-26 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.35 Units / 3.64% ROI
- 26-31 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.45 Units / -11.82% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 36-23 against the Run Line (+10.48 Units / 13.75% ROI).
- 27-32 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.85 Units / 13.07% ROI
- 25-31 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.75 Units / -13.6% ROI
- 31-25 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.28 Units / 5.01% ROI
Nationals vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -400 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Lane Thomas (WAS) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
Nationals vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Lane Thomas (WAS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Keibert Ruiz (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
Nationals vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -150 |
| Joey Meneses (WAS) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Lane Thomas (WAS) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
Nationals vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| David Peterson (NYM) | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -120 |
| Trevor Williams (WAS) | 4.5 +125 | 4.5 -160 |
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
David Peterson has a first-pitch strike rate of just 55% (520/944) since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 152 total IP; League Avg: 63% — first Percentile.
David Peterson has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 53% (302/568) of right-handed hitters since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 152 total IP; League Avg: 66% — 0 Percentile.
David Peterson has a strike rate of just 60% (1,769/2,951) against right-handed batters since the 2022 season — tied for lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 152 total IP; League Avg: 65% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of 56% (71/128) against David Peterson on sliders since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 152 total IP; League Avg: 36% — first Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have swung at 36% of Trevor Williams’ breaking pitches (466/1,281) since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 152 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 0 Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 39% of Trevor Williams’ non-fastballs (894/2,295) since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 152 total IP; League Avg: 48% — first Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 35% of Trevor Williams’ breaking pitches (343/979) since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 87 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 36% (388/1,077) against Trevor Williams on sliders since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 152 total IP; League Avg: 49% — first Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Mets are just 9-145 (.058) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .096.
The Mets are just 10-51 (.164) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .261.
The Mets are just 83-8 (.912) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .946.
The Mets are just 5-94 (.051) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .104.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Nationals are 5-1 (.833) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .573.
The Nationals are just 24-45 (.348) after a home win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .534.
The Nationals are just 70-116 (.376) at home since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .526.
The Nationals are just 16-28 (.364) after a home win since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .529.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets have won just 25% of games in which they have scored first at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 72%.
The Mets are batting .268 on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
The Mets are batting just .228 at home since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Mets hitters are slugging just .346 at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .394.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters had a Hard-Hit Rate of just 36% against RHP in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 38% at home since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters are averaging just 3.78 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Nationals hitters have 680 extra-base hits out of 2,194 total hits (just 31%) against RHP since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 61 of 542 batters (11%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 201 of 1,954 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 247 of 2,336 batters (11%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Mets pitchers since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zach Brzykcy (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
- Stone Garrett (Washington Nationals): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Nick Senzel (Washington Nationals): Thumb, 10-Day IL
- Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Cade Cavalli (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Sean Reid-Foley (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Tylor Megill (New York Mets): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- David Peterson (New York Mets): Hip, 60-Day IL
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
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