The New York Mets (-110) visit CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches to take on the Washington Nationals (-110) on Tuesday, March 12, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 6:05pm EDT in West Palm Beach, FL.
This season, the Mets are 7-6 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 7-6 ATS.
Mets vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Moneyline | |
| Mets | -110 |
| Nationals | -110 |
Mets vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Nationals will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Starling Marte has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Tim Locastro has hit the Runs Over in 1 of his last 2 away games (+1.05 Units / 52% ROI)
- Daniel Vogelbach has hit the RBIs Over in 1 of his last 2 away games (+0.95 Units / 47% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Luis Garcia has hit the Singles Over in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 73% ROI)
- Luis Garcia has hit the Runs Over in his last 2 games at home (+3.30 Units / 165% ROI)
- Dominic Smith has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- Joey Meneses has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 42% ROI)
- Drew Millas has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 39% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 84 of their last 152 games (+17.70 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 32 of their last 51 games (+15.55 Units / 24% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 26 away games (+6.98 Units / 23% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 45 games (+2.10 Units / 4% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 66 of their last 144 games (+23.45 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games at home (+6.30 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 84 of their last 156 games (+2.30 Units / 1% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.15 Units / 21% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Mets are 8-5 against the Run Line (+3.2 Units / 20.01% ROI).
- 7-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.18 Units / -1.01% ROI
- 1-10 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.96 Units / -70.09% ROI
- 10-1 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.85 Units / 61.42% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Nationals are 7-6 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 0% ROI).
- 8-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.18 Units / 42.71% ROI
- 8-4 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.76 Units / 26.18% ROI
- 4-8 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.86 Units / -33.84% ROI
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jose Quintana has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.2 MPH against his fastballs since last season (389 balls in play) — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 90.6
Jose Quintana induced opposing hitters to ground into 9 double plays in 54 opportunities (17%) in the 2023 season — tied for 13th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 11% — 93rd Percentile.
Opponents had a line drive rate of 35% (17/48) versus Jose Quintana on low breaking pitches in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 22% — first Percentile.
Jose Quintana had a strike rate of just 62% (627/1,016) against right-handed batters in the 2023 season — tied for 13th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 11th Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
28 of Josiah Gray’s breaking pitch strikeouts were backdoor in the 2023 season — 2nd most in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: nan — 99th Percentile.
Josiah Gray has an average spin rate of 1959.4 RPM on sliders since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 2397.6 — 0 Percentile.
28 of Josiah Gray’s 95 breaking pitch strikeouts (29%) were backdoor in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 14% — 98th Percentile.
Josiah Gray allowed an OBP of .303 (380 PA’s) with two-strikes in the 2023 season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .246 — third Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Mets were just 6-39 (.133) when allowing 10 or more hits in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .272.
The Mets were just 2-72 (.027) when trailing entering the 8th inning in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .100.
The Mets are 151-2 (.987) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .951.
The Mets are just 11-109 (.092) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .129.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Nationals are just 21-36 (.368) after a home win since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.
The Nationals are just 39-64 (.379) after a home loss since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .516.
The Nationals are just 63-43 (.594) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .728.
The Nationals are just 37-72 (.339) after a win as underdogs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .417.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets batted just .238 against LHP in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
The Mets batted just .235 at home in the 2023 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .252.
Mets hitters chased just 21% pitches when the pitcher was behind in the count in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
The Mets have a winning percentage of 60% at home since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters averaged just 3.76 pitches per plate appearance against RHP in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Nationals hitters struck out just 809 times in 4,217 PA’s (19%) against RHP in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Nationals batted just .293 in hitter’s counts in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .343.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 37% at home since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers walked 140 of 1,412 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers walked 591 of 6,084 batters (10%) in the 2023 season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Mets pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in 57% of their games on the road in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
The longest HR allowed by the Mets pitchers in the 2023 season traveled 455.0 feet — — tied for 3rd shortest in MLB; League Avg: 466.0
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes in the 2023 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Nationals have won just 23% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Opponents batted .273 against Nationals pitchers in the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Nationals vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zach Brzykcy (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
- Stone Garrett (Washington Nationals): Lower Leg, Out
- Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals): Shoulder, Out
- Joey Meneses (Washington Nationals): Knee, Out
- Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
- Dominic Smith (Washington Nationals): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Cade Cavalli (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- David Peterson (New York Mets): Hip, Out
- Yacksel Rios (New York Mets): Shoulder, Out
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, Out
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