- The Padres are -160 favorites vs the Mets
- Mets vs Padres Over / Under today: 7 Runs
- Mets / Padres TV Channel: SNY | PDTV | MLBN
The New York Mets (+135) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-160) on Thursday, August 22, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego, CA.
This season, the Mets are 66-61 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 66-62 ATS.
Mets vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mets starting pitcher: Luis Severino 8-6, 3.90 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Dylan Cease 12-9, 3.47 ERA
Mets vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | +1.5 -175 | O 7 +105 | +135 |
| Padres | -1.5 +145 | U 7 -125 | -160 |
Mets vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 54.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 16 away games (+41.00 Units / 256% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 34 games (+19.30 Units / 31% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 33 games (+13.35 Units / 37% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 15 away games (+12.35 Units / 38% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 21 away games (+12.20 Units / 45% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 10 of his last 50 games (+30.30 Units / 61% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Walks Under in 37 of his last 50 games (+15.65 Units / 17% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 27 games (+13.35 Units / 48% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 24 of his last 34 games (+12.90 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Total Bases Under in 32 of his last 45 games (+12.70 Units / 18% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 42 of their last 68 games (+9.75 Units / 10% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 32 games (+9.25 Units / 26% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 15 away games (+7.70 Units / 47% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 41 of their last 79 games (+7.25 Units / 7% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 32 away games (+6.80 Units / 18% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 51 games (+15.55 Units / 22% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 32 games at home (+13.05 Units / 37% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 52 of their last 96 games (+9.40 Units / 8% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 20 of their last 32 games at home (+5.70 Units / 15% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games at home (+5.05 Units / 23% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 60-67 against the Run Line (-10.45 Units / -6.54% ROI).
- 66-61 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.2 Units / -2.02% ROI
- 63-58 when betting on the total runs Over for -1 Units / -0.72% ROI
- 58-63 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.2 Units / -7.5% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 66-62 against the Run Line (+6.3 Units / 3.96% ROI).
- 72-56 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.75 Units / 2.19% ROI
- 69-57 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.85 Units / 4.9% ROI
- 57-69 when betting on the total runs Under for -19.55 Units / -13.76% ROI
Padres vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Padres vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jurickson Profar (SD) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
Padres vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| David Peralta (SD) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
Padres vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Severino (NYM) | 3.5 -150 | 3.5 +115 |
| Dylan Cease (SD) | 7.5 -105 | 7.5 -125 |
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 19% (79/421) against Luis Severino this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 60% (15/25) against Luis Severino this month (3 games) — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 40% — 95th Percentile.
Luis Severino has allowed a slugging percentage of .590 (46 Total Bases / 78 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .395 — sixth Percentile.
Luis Severino has allowed an OBP of .321 (212 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .287 — 17th Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Dylan Cease has allowed an OBP of just .263 (586 PAs) this season — ninth best among qualified SPs– 87th Percentile. He allowed an OBP of .332 (783 PAs) last season — third worst among qualified SPs– sixth Percentile.
Dylan Cease has a strikeout rate of 38% (87 SO in 229 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .151 (30-for-199) against Dylan Cease when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .115 (32-for-279) against Dylan Cease when ahead in the count this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .187 — 100th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Mets are just 51-6 (.895) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .946.
The Mets are just 48-11 (.814) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .896.
The Mets are 6-51 (.105) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .054.
The Mets are just 44-12 (.786) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .855.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Padres are 67-54 (.554) after a road win since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .486.
The Padres are 115-20 (.852) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .789.
The Padres are 9-48 (.158) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .104.
The Padres are 42-29 (.592) after a win this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .494.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have an OPS of .770 (1,295 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .324 (17,075 PA’s) since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
The Mets have been successful on 56% of their hit & run attempts since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .257 (9,169 PA’s) with two-strikes since the 2022 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting .282 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Padres hitters have just 849 strikeouts in 4,817 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres hitters have just 611 strikeouts in 3,449 PA’s (18%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres hitters have just 238 strikeouts in 1,368 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 483 of 4,844 batters (10%) this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 242 of 2,548 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 102 of 1,136 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Mets pitchers have walked 58 of 493 batters (12%) over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 32% against Padres pitchers this month (18 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .210 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .235.
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Yu Darvish (San Diego Padres): Personal, Out
- Rougned Odor (San Diego Padres): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Tom Cosgrove (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Suspension, Suspension
- Joe Musgrove (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Fernando Tatis (San Diego Padres): Quadriceps, 10-Day IL
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Drew Smith (New York Mets): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Sean Reid-Foley (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Grant Hartwig (New York Mets): Knee, 7-Day IL
- Tim Locastro (New York Mets): Undisclosed, 60-Day IL
- Starling Marte (New York Mets): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Brooks Raley (New York Mets): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Reed Garrett (New York Mets): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
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