- The Padres are -210 favorites vs the Rockies
- Padres vs Rockies Over / Under today: 11 Runs
- Padres / Rockies TV Channel: ROTV | PDTV | MLBN
The San Diego Padres (-210) visit Coors Field to take on the Colorado Rockies (+170) on Saturday, August 17, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Denver, CO.
This season, the Padres are 69-54 against the spread (ATS), while the Rockies are 63-60 ATS.
Padres vs Rockies Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Dylan Cease 11-9, 3.42 ERA
- Rockies starting pitcher: Kyle Freeland 3-4, 5.78 ERA
Padres vs. Rockies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 -130 | O 10.5 +100 | -210 |
| Rockies | +1.5 +110 | U 10.5 -120 | +170 |
Padres vs Rockies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 66.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 10 of his last 50 games (+32.10 Units / 64% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Walks Under in 35 of his last 47 games (+15.15 Units / 17% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Total Bases Under in 29 of his last 40 games (+12.95 Units / 21% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 33 games (+12.90 Units / 25% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 21 of his last 29 games (+12.25 Units / 35% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rockies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rockies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Brenton Doyle has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 33 games (+23.00 Units / 70% ROI)
- Hunter Goodman has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+14.20 Units / 80% ROI)
- Hunter Goodman has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+11.60 Units / 58% ROI)
- Hunter Goodman has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+10.70 Units / 36% ROI)
- Ezequiel Tovar has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 30 games (+9.80 Units / 31% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 46 games (+15.75 Units / 25% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 38 of their last 61 away games (+15.15 Units / 19% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 45 games (+8.45 Units / 17% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 10 of their last 15 away games (+5.25 Units / 30% ROI)
Rockies Best Bets Today:
- The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 43 games at home (+10.95 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Colorado Rockies have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 22 games at home (+9.55 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 43 games at home (+6.65 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Colorado Rockies have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 19 games at home (+6.35 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 22 of their last 38 games at home (+3.75 Units / 8% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 63-60 against the Run Line (+5.35 Units / 3.5% ROI).
- 69-54 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.95 Units / 2.41% ROI
- 65-56 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.85 Units / 2.86% ROI
- 56-65 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.05 Units / -11.77% ROI
Rockies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Rockies are 63-60 against the Run Line (-9.45 Units / -6.22% ROI).
- 45-78 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.35 Units / -7.62% ROI
- 61-59 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.9 Units / -2.91% ROI
- 59-61 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.2 Units / -6.1% ROI
Rockies vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -350 |
| Brenton Doyle (COL) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Michael Toglia (COL) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Ezequiel Tovar (COL) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Rockies vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brendan Rodgers (COL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Ezequiel Tovar (COL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Brenton Doyle (COL) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Charlie Blackmon (COL) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Jake Cave (COL) | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
Rockies vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -105 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -140 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| Luis Campusano (SD) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
Rockies vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Dylan Cease (SD) | 7.5 -115 | 7.5 -110 |
| Kyle Freeland (COL) | 3.5 +135 | 3.5 -175 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Dylan Cease has allowed an OBP of just .260 (562 PAs) this season — seventh best among qualified SPs– 91st Percentile. He allowed an OBP of .332 (783 PAs) last season — third worst among qualified SPs– sixth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .151 (29-for-192) against Dylan Cease when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .194 (136-for-702) against Dylan Cease when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .238 — 100th Percentile.
19 of Dylan Cease’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor this season — 2nd most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 98th Percentile.
Rockies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kyle Freeland has allowed a slugging percentage of .642 (129 Total Bases / 201 ABs) on changeups since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 178 total IP; League Avg: .373 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .455 (20-for-44) against Kyle Freeland in close and late situations since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 178 total IP; League Avg: .238 — first Percentile.
Kyle Freeland has allowed a slugging percentage of .533 (307 Total Bases / 576 ABs) versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 113 total IP; League Avg: .401 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .408 (82-for-201) against Kyle Freeland’s changeup since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 178 total IP; League Avg: .237 — first Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Rockies
The Padres are 41-27 (.603) after a win this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .496.
The Padres are 9-46 (.164) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .105.
The Padres are 112-20 (.848) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .789.
The Padres are 23-15 (.605) after a road win this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .470.
Rockies Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Rockies are just 37-7 (.822) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .945.
The Rockies are just 11-31 (.256) after a road loss this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .480.
The Rockies are just 27-25 (.519) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .797.
The Rockies are just 50-36 (.581) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .799.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting .281 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Padres hitters have just 232 strikeouts in 1,330 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres hitters have just 586 strikeouts in 3,301 PA’s (18%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres hitters have just 818 strikeouts in 4,631 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Rockies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Rockies have won just 46% of road games in which they have scored three or more runs in an inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 74%.
The Rockies have won just 46% of road games in which they have scored three or more runs in an inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 75%.
The Rockies have a winning percentage of just 27% on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Rockies hitters have an OBP of just .299 (3,033 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .321.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.0 MPH since last season (6,911 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,922 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Padres pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,922 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Rockies Pitching Stats & Trends
Rockies pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Rockies pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 36% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 21% against Rockies pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Rockies pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 17% this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Rockies vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Nolan Jones (Colorado Rockies): Back, 10-Day IL
- German Marquez (Colorado Rockies): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Antonio Senzatela (Colorado Rockies): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Daniel Bard (Colorado Rockies): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Yu Darvish (San Diego Padres): Personal, Out
- Rougned Odor (San Diego Padres): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Tom Cosgrove (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Suspension, Suspension
- Joe Musgrove (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Fernando Tatis (San Diego Padres): Quadriceps, 10-Day IL
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