- The Marlins (58-83) are -125 favorites vs the Phillies (78-62)
- Phillies starting pitcher: Bailey Falter (4-3), 4.02 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara (12-7), 2.42 ERA
- Watch the game on BSFL
The Philadelphia Phillies (+105) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-125) on Tuesday, September 13, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami.
The Marlins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).
The Phillies vs Marlins Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Phillies are 77-61 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 66-73 ATS.
Phillies vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | +1.5 -200 | O 7 +100 | +105 |
| Marlins | -1.5 +165 | U 7 -120 | -125 |
Phillies vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the will win Tuesday‘s matchup with confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 56 away games (+17.45 Units / 20% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Singles Over in 31 of his last 52 away games (+17.25 Units / 33% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Under in 32 of his last 48 away games (+12.50 Units / 20% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Runs Under in 34 of his last 57 games (+12.40 Units / 20% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 18 away games (+10.85 Units / 31% ROI)
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 23 games at home (+13.65 Units / 44% ROI)
- Joey Wendle has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+10.55 Units / 58% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 13 games at home (+9.90 Units / 75% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 14 games at home (+9.50 Units / 51% ROI)
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 18 of his last 26 games (+9.50 Units / 27% ROI)
Marlins vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brian Anderson | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Bryan De La Cruz | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Charles Leblanc | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Jacob Stallings | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
Marlins vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brian Anderson | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Bryan De La Cruz | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +100 |
| Charles Leblanc | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +115 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jacob Stallings | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +105 |
Marlins vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brian Anderson | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
| Bryan De La Cruz | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
| Charles Leblanc | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jacob Stallings | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
Marlins vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bailey Falter | 4.5 -150 | 4.5 +105 |
| Sandy Alcantara | 6.5 +105 | 6.5 -150 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 80 of their last 135 games (+21.95 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in their last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 90% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.65 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.45 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.00 Units / 18% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 38 of their last 65 games (+9.65 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.85 Units / 58% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.30 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.25 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 games (+0.60 Units / 10% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 70-67 against the Run Line (+0.4 Units / 0.24% ROI).
- 77-61 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.5 Units / 2.21% ROI
- 70-62 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.05 Units / 1.35% ROI
- 62-70 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.45 Units / -9.52% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 66-73 against the Run Line (-18.6 Units / -10.06% ROI).
- 58-81 when betting on the Moneyline for -26.15 Units / -15.99% ROI
- 62-71 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.8 Units / -10.27% ROI
- 71-62 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.05 Units / 1.99% ROI
Bailey Falter: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bailey Falter has not walked any of the 47 batters that he has faced — tied for best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.
Bailey Falter has not allowed a walk in his last 67 PAs against a RHH dating back to August 20th — Chris Martin has the longest active streak at 170.
Bailey Falter has not walked a batter in his last 23.0 innings pitched — Chris Martin has the longest active streak at 32.2.
Bailey Falter’s has 9 strikeouts and no walks — tied for best in MLB K:BB ratio over the last two weeks; League Avg: 3.7 — 100th Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Sandy Alcantara has a strike rate of 72% (875/1,222) against right-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 18% (42/235) against Sandy Alcantara this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 98th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 57% (133/235) against Sandy Alcantara this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 96th Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has a strike rate of 72% (593/819) in two strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — 100th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Phillies are 108-78 (.581) at home since the 2020 season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .537.
The Phillies are 20-136 (.128) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .086.
The Phillies are 54-10 (.844) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits since the 2020 season — tied for 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .805.
The Phillies are just 16-24 (.400) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Marlins are just 84-94 (.472) at home since the 2020 season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .537.
The Marlins are just 148-171 (.464) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since the 2020 season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.
The Marlins are just 28-75 (.272) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2020 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .353.
The Marlins are just 71-112 (.388) on the road since the 2020 season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .463.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .782 (1,569 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
The Phillies are batting .268 against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Phillies hitters are slugging .426 this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .396.
Phillies hitters are slugging .442 at home this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .402.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have 798 strikeouts in 2,879 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .284 (2,879 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .629 (2,879 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .727.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .616 (1,650 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .686.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .261 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .221.
Phillies pitchers have allowed a run just 24% of the time after an opposing score this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 173 of 2,668 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.7 MPH since the start of last season (7,336 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.7
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 10% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
The Marlins have won just 18% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jorge Soler (Marlins): Back, D10
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Daniel Castano (Marlins): Concussion, D7
- Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
- Avisaíl García (Marlins): Hamstring, Day-to-Day
- Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Jordan Holloway (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
- Mark Appel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Nicholas Castellanos (Phillies): Oblique, D10
- Símon Muzziotti (Phillies): Knee, D60
- Zachary Wheeler (Phillies): Forearm, D15
- Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60
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