- The Astros are -200 favorites vs the Rangers
- Rangers starting pitcher: Andrew Heaney
- Astros starting pitcher: Framber Valdez
- Watch the game on ESPN
The Texas Rangers (+165) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-200) on Sunday, April 16, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:08pm EDT in Houston.
The Astros are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+100).
The Rangers vs Astros Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Rangers are 8-6 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 8-7 ATS.
Rangers vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rangers | +1.5 -120 | O 8 -115 | +165 |
| Astros | -1.5 +100 | U 8 -105 | -200 |
Rangers vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rangers and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rangers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rangers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Nate Lowe has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+7.60 Units / 69% ROI)
- Corey Seager has hit the Hits Over in his last 5 games (+7.00 Units / 77% ROI)
- Nate Lowe has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.00 Units / 34% ROI)
- Nate Lowe has hit the RBIs Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+6.25 Units / 125% ROI)
- Josh Jung has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+6.25 Units / 26% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+12.40 Units / 124% ROI)
- Mauricio Dubon has hit the Singles Over in his last 10 games (+10.10 Units / 85% ROI)
- Mauricio Dubon has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 47% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+9.10 Units / 51% ROI)
- Mauricio Dubon has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.90 Units / 58% ROI)
Astros vs Rangers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Robbie Grossman | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Nate Lowe | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
Astros vs Rangers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Robbie Grossman | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -105 |
| Nate Lowe | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Astros vs Rangers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Robbie Grossman | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -450 |
| Nate Lowe | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
Astros vs Rangers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew Heaney | 5.5 -155 | 5.5 +115 |
| Framber Valdez | 6.5 -150 | 6.5 +115 |
Rangers Best Bets Today:
- The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.80 Units / 63% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.85 Units / 52% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.45 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.00 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.80 Units / 20% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+5.80 Units / 65% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.65 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+4.45 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.40 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.05 Units / 27% ROI)
Rangers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rangers have gone 7-7 against the Run Line (-1 Units / -5.56% ROI).
- 8-6 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 5.12% ROI
- 9-5 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.35 Units / 21.41% ROI
- 5-9 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.85 Units / -31.91% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 8-7 against the Run Line (-0.05 Units / -0.26% ROI).
- 7-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.35 Units / -25.15% ROI
- 10-5 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.5 Units / 27.03% ROI
- 5-10 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.85 Units / -35.78% ROI
Rangers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 40% (51/129) against Andrew Heaney on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 70 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 98th Percentile.
Andrew Heaney has a strikeout rate of 35% (122 SO in 347 PAs) since last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 70 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 24% (5/21) against Andrew Heaney this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.
Andrew Heaney has struck out 37% (98/268) of right-handed batters he faced since last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 70 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 98th Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 67% (407/606) against Framber Valdez since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 68% (130/192) against Framber Valdez in two-strike counts since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 70 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 68% (343/504) against Framber Valdez since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 70 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Framber Valdez has thrown inside pitches 47% of the time (433/911) with two-strikes since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Rangers Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
keys to the game – away
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Rangers
The Astros are 33-18 (.647) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .401.
The Astros are 40-28 (.588) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .418.
The Astros are 54-33 (.621) on the road since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .469.
The Astros are 31-17 (.646) when moneyline favorites of less than -150 since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .546.
Rangers Hitting Stats & Trends
Rangers hitters have an OBP of just .206 (69 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .337.
Rangers hitters are slugging just .197 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .452.
The Rangers are batting just .115 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .262.
The Rangers are hitting just .034 against pitchers who have thrown at least 80 pitches in the game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 342 strikeouts in 2,005 PA’s (17%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 722 strikeouts in 4,086 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have 23 extra-base hits out of 95 total hits (just 24%) against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Astros hitters have just 836 strikeouts in 4,619 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Rangers Pitching Stats & Trends
Rangers pitchers have walked 149 of 1,564 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Rangers pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Rangers pitchers since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rangers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 48% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 30% against Astros pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Astros have allowed 3.30 runs per game (287/87) on the road since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.36.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 2.84 (817.0 IP) at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.86.
Astros vs. Rangers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Elbow, D15
- Jose Altuve (Astros): Thumb, D10
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D10
- Parker Mushinski (Astros): Spine, D15
- Chas McCormick (Astros): Eye, Day-to-Day
- Mitchell Garver (Rangers): Knee, D10
- Leody Taveras (Rangers): Oblique, D10
- Jacob Odorizzi (Rangers): Shoulder, D60
- Glenn Otto (Rangers): Lat, D60
- Brett Martin (Rangers): Shoulder, D60
- Jonathan Gray (Rangers): Forearm, Day-to-Day
- Spencer Howard (Rangers): Lat, D60
- Corey Seager (Rangers): Hamstring, D10
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