- The Mariners are -120 favorites vs the Rangers
- Rangers starting pitcher: Jordan Montgomery
- Mariners starting pitcher: Logan Gilbert
- Watch the game on ROOT Sports NW
The Texas Rangers (+100) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (-120) on Thursday, September 28, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Seattle.
The Mariners are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+170).
The Rangers vs Mariners Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Rangers are 89-69 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 75-83 ATS.
Rangers vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rangers | +1.5 -210 | O 7.5 -110 | +100 |
| Mariners | -1.5 +170 | U 7.5 -110 | -120 |
Rangers vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 54.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rangers and Mariners and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rangers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rangers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Adolis Garcia has hit the Singles Under in 29 of his last 37 games (+15.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- Jordan Montgomery has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+13.25 Units / 53% ROI)
- Josh H. Smith has hit the Singles Under in his last 13 games (+13.00 Units / 52% ROI)
- Josh Jung has hit the Runs Under in 33 of his last 45 games (+12.50 Units / 16% ROI)
- Evan Carter has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+12.10 Units / 93% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Teoscar Hernandez has hit the Singles Over in 32 of his last 50 games (+13.50 Units / 25% ROI)
- Teoscar Hernandez has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 23 games at home (+11.15 Units / 30% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Total Bases Over in 22 of his last 31 games (+10.45 Units / 20% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the RBIs Over in 13 of his last 23 games at home (+9.85 Units / 43% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 24 games (+9.80 Units / 37% ROI)
Mariners vs Rangers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
| Evan Carter | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2500 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Nate Lowe | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -600 |
Mariners vs Rangers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Evan Carter | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 +100 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Nate Lowe | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +115 |
Mariners vs Rangers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Evan Carter | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -400 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -400 |
| Nate Lowe | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Mariners vs Rangers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Logan Gilbert | 6.5 +105 | 6.5 -135 |
| Jordan Montgomery | 5.5 -145 | 5.5 +110 |
Rangers Best Bets Today:
- The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 83 of their last 150 games (+21.74 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 88 of their last 150 games (+18.58 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have covered the Run Line in 82 of their last 150 games (+16.95 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 33 away games (+14.31 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 33 games (+14.15 Units / 39% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 31 of their last 57 games (+12.39 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 45 of their last 74 games at home (+11.15 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 31 of their last 48 games (+10.83 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 41 games (+8.90 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 78 games (+7.20 Units / 6% ROI)
Rangers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rangers have gone 85-73 against the Run Line (+13.5 Units / 6.96% ROI).
- 89-69 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.55 Units / -0.24% ROI
- 84-68 when betting on the total runs Over for +9 Units / 5.15% ROI
- 68-84 when betting on the total runs Under for -24.2 Units / -13.95% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 75-83 against the Run Line (-14.35 Units / -7.1% ROI).
- 85-73 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.15 Units / -3.95% ROI
- 80-72 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.95 Units / 0.54% ROI
- 72-80 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.35 Units / -8.87% ROI
Rangers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jordan Montgomery has pitched 7 or more innings in each of his last three games — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
64% of Jordan Montgomery’s called strikeouts are inside this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 33% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 36% (64/178) against Jordan Montgomery on elevated fastballs since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 127 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 0 Percentile.
Jordan Montgomery has 69 three-pitch strikeouts since last season — tied for 12th most among of 892 pitchers in MLB — 98th Percentile.
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .350 (7-for-20) against Logan Gilbert with two-strikes over the last 14 days (2 games) — highest in AL over the last two weeks; League Avg: .152 — second Percentile.
Opponents batted .476 (39-for-82) against Logan Gilbert on the first pitch of at-bats in 2022 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .338 — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .350 (7-for-20) against Logan Gilbert with two-strikes — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .158 — first Percentile.
Logan Gilbert has allowed an OBP of .435 (23 PA’s) with two-strikes over the last 14 days (2 games) — highest in AL over the last two weeks; League Avg: .218 — second Percentile.
Rangers Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Rangers are 24-19 (.558) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .390.
The Rangers are just 6-125 (.046) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .092.
The Rangers are just 75-50 (.600) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .698.
The Rangers are just 133-22 (.858) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .908.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Rangers
The Mariners are 44-7 (.863) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .730.
The Mariners are 16-29 (.356) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .270.
The Mariners are 84-13 (.866) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .729.
The Mariners are 74-2 (.974) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .948.
Rangers Hitting Stats & Trends
Rangers hitters are slugging .495 at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .422.
Rangers hitters have an OBP of .349 (3,096 PA’s) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .324.
Rangers hitters have drawn 165 walks in 1,610 PA’s (10%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rangers hitters have an OPS of .794 (1,610 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .741.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters have pulled 51% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Mariners are batting just .126 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .154.
Mariners hitters are slugging just .173 on pitches out of the zone since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .211.
Mariners hitters have 1,164 strikeouts in 4,522 PA’s (26%) against RHP this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Rangers Pitching Stats & Trends
Rangers pitchers have walked 250 of 2,849 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 44% against Rangers pitchers since last season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 22% against Rangers pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Rangers pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 44% of their games this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers have walked 404 of 5,862 batters (7%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 186 of 2,877 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 91 of 1,419 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 69% of opposing batters this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Mariners vs. Rangers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Emerson Hancock (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
- Easton McGee (Mariners): Forearm, D60
- Marco Gonzales (Mariners): Forearm, D60
- Thomas Murphy (Mariners): Thumb, D10
- Robert Ray (Mariners): Flexor, D60
- William Murfee (Mariners): Elbow, D60
- Evan White (Mariners): Adductor, D60
- Jacob Odorizzi (Rangers): Shoulder, D60
- Brett Martin (Rangers): Shoulder, D60
- Bradley Miller (Rangers): Hamstring, D60
- Ian Kennedy (Rangers): Shoulder, D60
- Maxwell Scherzer (Rangers): Triceps , D15
- Jacob deGrom (Rangers): Elbow, D60
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