- The Red Sox are -105 favorites vs the Blue Jays
- Red Sox vs Blue Jays Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Red Sox / Blue Jays TV Channel: RSN1 | NESN | MLBN
The Boston Red Sox (-105) visit Rogers Centre to take on the Toronto Blue Jays (-115) on Thursday, May 1, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07pm EDT in Toronto, ON.
This season, the Red Sox are 17-15 against the spread (ATS), while the Blue Jays are 18-12 ATS.
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Starting Pitchers Today:
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Tanner Houck 0-2, 7.59 ERA
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Jose Berrios 1-1, 4.24 ERA
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +155 | O 8.5 -105 | -105 |
| Blue Jays | +1.5 -190 | U 8.5 -115 | -115 |
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Carlos Narvaez has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games (+24.50 Units / 272% ROI)
- Triston Casas has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+13.75 Units / 28% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the RBIs Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+10.95 Units / 137% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 games (+10.85 Units / 50% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.40 Units / 54% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+16.80 Units / 84% ROI)
- Addison Barger has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 20 games (+13.95 Units / 34% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+12.05 Units / 50% ROI)
- Addison Barger has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+10.50 Units / 60% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.65 Units / 41% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 17 of their last 27 games (+9.80 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 14 games (+8.05 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.60 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.85 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 22 games (+4.55 Units / 16% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 27 games (+8.07 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.90 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 29 games (+4.10 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games at home (+4.00 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games at home (+3.00 Units / 21% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 16-16 against the Run Line (+1 Units / 2.53% ROI).
- 17-15 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.05 Units / -8.46% ROI
- 16-15 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.25 Units / -0.71% ROI
- 15-16 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.4 Units / -6.81% ROI
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Blue Jays are 18-12 against the Run Line (+3.1 Units / 7.02% ROI).
- 14-16 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.25 Units / -3.75% ROI
- 12-18 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.25 Units / -22.33% ROI
- 18-12 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.82 Units / 14.35% ROI
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -450 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Anthony Santander (TOR) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Alejandro Kirk (TOR) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Anthony Santander (TOR) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Trevor Story (BOS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| George Springer (TOR) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Blue Jays vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Anthony Santander (TOR) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Berrios (TOR) | 5.5 +120 | 5.5 -155 |
| Tanner Houck (BOS) | 4.5 +125 | 4.5 -165 |
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tanner Houck has allowed a .513 SLG this season — seventh worst among qualified SPs– seventh Percentile. He allowed a SLG of just .320 last season — fourth best among qualified SPs– 94th Percentile.
Tanner Houck has allowed an OPS of 1.181 (54 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: .709 — second Percentile.
Tanner Houck has allowed a slugging percentage of .755 (37 Total Bases / 49 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: .402 — second Percentile.
Tanner Houck has an ERA of 11.65 (17.0 IP) on the road this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.98 — first Percentile.
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jose Berrios has located his pitches away 56% of the time (762/1,351) when behind in the count since the 2023 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 17% (47/274) against Jose Berrios on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — second Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 20% (149/736) against Jose Berrios since last season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — eighth Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 13% (5/39) against Jose Berrios on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — eighth Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Red Sox are just 40-151 (.209) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .273.
The Red Sox are 5-3 (.625) vs top 10 scoring offenses this season They play the Blue Jays (23rd best runs scored) today.
The Red Sox were just 5-58 (.079) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Red Sox are 13-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .922.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Blue Jays are just 9-2 (.818) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .922.
The Blue Jays were just 6-73 (.076) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Blue Jays are 28-15 (.651) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .499.
The Blue Jays were just 27-44 (.380) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams in the 2024 season They play the Red Sox (23rd best runs allowed) today.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters struck out 506 times in 1,816 PA’s (28%) against LHP in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox hitters have a Hard-Hit Rate of 48% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 41%.
Red Sox hitters have put just 26% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Red Sox hitters have struck out in 27% of it’s PA’s against LHP since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Blue Jays are batting just .177 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .341.
The Blue Jays are batting just .298 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .334.
Blue Jays hitters are slugging just .285 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .581.
Blue Jays hitters are slugging just .467 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .563.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 44% against Red Sox pitchers since the 2023 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Red Sox pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 7% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .045 against Blue Jays pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .234.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 24% against Blue Jays pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Blue Jays pitchers had a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes in 2023 — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Batters facing the Blue Jays pitchers have struck out in the zone 55% of the time this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%. this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
More MLB Reading:
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