- The Mariners are -145 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Red Sox / Mariners TV Channel: RTNW | NESN
The Boston Red Sox (+120) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (-145) on Friday, March 29, 2024. First pitch is for this MLB matchup is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Seattle, WA.
This season, the Red Sox are 1-0 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 0-1 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -175 | O 7 +100 | +120 |
| Mariners | -1.5 +145 | U 7 -120 | -145 |
Red Sox vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Friday‘s game with 56.3% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Rafael Devers has hit the RBIs Over in 3 of his last 4 away games (+4.35 Units / 109% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Hits Under in 2 of his last 3 away games (+2.80 Units / 93% ROI)
- Luis Urias has hit the Runs Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+2.70 Units / 90% ROI)
- Triston Casas has hit the RBIs Over in his last game (+2.05 Units / 205% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Dominic Canzone has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- Cal Raleigh has hit the Singles Over in his last game (+1.50 Units / 150% ROI)
- Mitch Haniger has hit the Runs Over in his last game (+1.45 Units / 145% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco has hit the Singles Over in his last game (+1.45 Units / 145% ROI)
- Dominic Canzone has hit the Hits Under in his last game (+1.45 Units / 145% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.60 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 37 of their last 66 away games (+7.03 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 61 away games (+5.05 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 3 away games (+3.20 Units / 94% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 2 of their last 3 away games (+2.43 Units / 76% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 33 of their last 61 games (+11.71 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 33 of their last 52 games (+11.13 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 50 of their last 82 games (+8.75 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 46 of their last 78 games at home (+8.55 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+7.10 Units / 60% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 1-0 against the Run Line (+1 Units / 60.24% ROI).
- 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.24 Units / 124% ROI
- 1-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +1 Units / 83.33% ROI
- 0-1 when betting on the total runs Under for -1 Units / -100% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 0-1 against the Run Line (-1 Units / -100% ROI).
- 0-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.48 Units / -100% ROI
- 1-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +1 Units / 83.33% ROI
- 0-1 when betting on the total runs Under for -1 Units / -100% ROI
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Pivetta had a strikeout rate of 40% (34/85) in late innings in the 2023 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Nick Pivetta allowed an OBP of just .178 (359 PA’s) with two-strikes in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .246 — 99th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters had a chase rate of 34% (169/492) against Nick Pivetta in the 2023 season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 27% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .144 (46-for-320) against Nick Pivetta when behind in the count in the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .196 — 96th Percentile.
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
George Kirby’s K:BB ratio was 9.1 (172/19) in the 2023 season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.4 — 100th Percentile.
George Kirby had a strike rate of 71% (2,002/2,825) in the 2023 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
George Kirby elevated 50% of his pitches (469/934) with two-strikes in the 2023 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 97th Percentile.
George Kirby had a strike rate of 79% (334/422) when he’s behind in the count in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 69% — 100th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Red Sox were just 1-74 (.013) when trailing entering the 9th inning in 2023 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Red Sox were 22-14 (.611) after a home win in 2023 — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .534.
The Red Sox are just 3-140 (.021) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .048.
The Red Sox were 64-3 (.955) when leading entering the 8th inning in 2023 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .899.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Mariners are 84-13 (.866) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .728.
The Mariners are 44-6 (.880) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .796.
The Mariners were 71-5 (.934) when leading entering the 8th inning in 2023 — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .899.
The Mariners were 25-18 (.581) after a road win in 2023 — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .494.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox batted .300 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
The Red Sox batted .182 on pitches out of the zone in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .151.
Red Sox hitters slugged .266 on pitches out of the zone in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .211.
Red Sox hitters had an OBP of .357 (721 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .330.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters struck out 422 times in 1,624 PA’s (26%) against LHP in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mariners hitters put just 33% of their swings in play against LHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Mariners hitters put just 33% of their swings in play with two-strikes in the 2023 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Mariners batted just .125 on pitches out of the zone in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .151.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball batting average of .265 against Red Sox pitchers with the shift in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .240.
The Red Sox have won 43% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Red Sox pitchers had a strikeout rate of 22% when going through the lineup the third time in a game in the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 20%.
Opponents had a swing rate of 49% against the Red Sox pitchers in the 2023 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers walked 421 of 6,006 batters (7%) in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mariners pitchers walked 97 of 1,455 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners pitchers threw at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 69% of opposing batters in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Mariners pitchers had an ERA of 3.36 (463.0 IP) against division opponents in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.32.
Mariners vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Mitch Haniger (Seattle Mariners): Back, Out
- Gregory Santos (Seattle Mariners): Lat, Out
- Eduard Bazardo (Seattle Mariners): Undisclosed, Out
- Matt Brash (Seattle Mariners): Arm, Out
- David Hamilton (Boston Red Sox): Thumb, Out
- Wyatt Mills (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, Out
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, Out
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, Out
- Dinelson Lamet (Boston Red Sox): Personal, Day-To-Day
- Connor Wong (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, Day-To-Day
- Jarren Duran (Boston Red Sox): Toe, Out
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Lat, Out
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