- The Royals are -145 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Red Sox vs Royals Over / Under today: 10 Runs
- Red Sox / Royals TV Channel: NESN | BSKC
The Boston Red Sox (+120) visit Ewing M. Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (-145) on Monday, August 5, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Kansas City, MO.
This season, the Red Sox are 59-51 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 64-49 ATS.
Red Sox vs Royals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Red Sox starting pitcher: James Paxton 8-3, 4.55 ERA
- Royals starting pitcher: Brady Singer 8-6, 2.88 ERA
Red Sox vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -175 | O 10 -115 | +120 |
| Royals | -1.5 +145 | U 10 -105 | -145 |
Red Sox vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Royals will win Monday‘s MLB game with 55.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jarren Duran has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 19 away games (+28.30 Units / 149% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 44 games (+16.65 Units / 26% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Runs Over in 32 of his last 50 games (+16.15 Units / 29% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 29 of his last 43 games (+12.80 Units / 24% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Singles Over in 28 of his last 47 games (+12.05 Units / 25% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the RBIs Over in 22 of his last 34 games (+17.30 Units / 51% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Singles Over in 24 of his last 33 games (+13.70 Units / 36% ROI)
- Hunter Renfroe has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 30 games (+13.15 Units / 22% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+11.70 Units / 234% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 23 games at home (+11.50 Units / 37% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 42 of their last 67 games (+17.70 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 34 of their last 52 away games (+12.35 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 52 away games (+10.00 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 10 of their last 12 games (+8.55 Units / 62% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 57 of their last 110 games (+6.15 Units / 4% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 56 games at home (+13.00 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 56 games at home (+11.29 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 44 games (+9.00 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 30 of their last 56 games at home (+8.30 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+6.65 Units / 38% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 52-58 against the Run Line (-12.95 Units / -8.87% ROI).
- 59-51 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.8 Units / 1.32% ROI
- 56-49 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.55 Units / 2.11% ROI
- 49-56 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.25 Units / -10.12% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Royals are 64-49 against the Run Line (+6.64 Units / 4.35% ROI).
- 63-50 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.4 Units / 7.27% ROI
- 48-61 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.75 Units / -15.29% ROI
- 61-48 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.8 Units / 6.29% ROI
Royals vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -300 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -375 |
| Hunter Renfroe (KC) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
Royals vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Masataka Yoshida (BOS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Freddy Fermin (KC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Hunter Renfroe (KC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Dominic Smith (BOS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Royals vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 -110 | 0.5 -120 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 -105 | 0.5 -120 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Hunter Renfroe (KC) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
Royals vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brady Singer (KC) | 4.5 -150 | 4.5 +115 |
| James Paxton (BOS) | 3.5 -135 | 3.5 +100 |
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
James Paxton has walked 46 of 345 right-handed batters (13%) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 44 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 0 Percentile.
James Paxton has walked 25 of 164 batters (15%) versus the top of the order this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 44 total IP; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
James Paxton has walked 25 of 158 batters (16%) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 44 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 0 Percentile.
James Paxton has a strike rate of just 55% (168/307) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 44 total IP; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brady Singer has allowed a just .251 SLG vs right-handed batters (second best)– 98th Percentile and .492 vs left-handed batters this season (second worst among qualified SPs)– fourth Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .174 (38-for-219) against Brady Singer this season — tied for 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .236 — 97th Percentile.
Brady Singer has allowed an OBP of .349 (456 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .294 — sixth Percentile.
Brady Singer has allowed a slugging percentage of just .251 (55 Total Bases / 219 ABs) against right-handed batters this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .379 — 98th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Red Sox are just 53-173 (.235) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .279.
The Red Sox are 7-3 (.700) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are just 19-25 (.432) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .573.
The Red Sox are just 3-116 (.025) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .053.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Royals are just 40-56 (.417) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .577.
The Royals are just 30-56 (.349) after a road win since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .485.
The Royals are 21-9 (.700) after a home win this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .520.
The Royals are 24-35 (.407) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .272.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have 366 strikeouts in 1,297 PA’s (28%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Red Sox are batting .264 with two outs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .234.
Red Sox hitters have 1,104 strikeouts in 4,422 PA’s (25%) against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox hitters are slugging .575 over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: .421.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Royals won just 46% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 71%.
Royals hitters have drawn 540 walks in 7,685 PA’s (7%) against RHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Royals hitters are slugging .263 on pitches out of the zone this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .209.
Royals hitters have just 758 strikeouts in 4,166 PA’s (18%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 163 of 2,427 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have 188 three-pitch strikeouts this season — 2nd most in MLB.
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% with runners in scoring position this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Red Sox have allowed 7.42 runs per game (89/12) over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.67.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Royals pitchers since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% in close and late situations this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Royals vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- MJ Melendez (Kansas City Royals): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Kyle Wright (Kansas City Royals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Josh Taylor (Kansas City Royals): Biceps, 60-Day IL
- Isaiah Campbell (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 7-Day IL
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Chris Murphy (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Trevor Story (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Chest, Day-To-Day
- Brandon Walter (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Chris Martin (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Lucas Giolito (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Justin Slaten (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Garrett Whitlock (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Triston Casas (Boston Red Sox): Ribs, 60-Day IL
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