- The Reds are -118 favorites vs the Marlins
- Reds vs Marlins Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Reds / Marlins TV Channel: FDOH | FDFL
The Cincinnati Reds (-118) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-102) on Tuesday, April 22, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami, FL, FL.
This season, the Reds are 11-12 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 11-11 ATS.
Reds vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Reds starting pitcher: Nick Martinez 0-3, 6.01 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Edward Cabrera 0-1, 6.31 ERA
Reds vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | -1.5 +145 | O 8.5 -115 | -118 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -175 | U 8.5 -105 | -102 |
Reds vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 53.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Austin Hays has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 9 games (+15.90 Units / 177% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+13.40 Units / 54% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+11.80 Units / 39% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 20 away games (+10.85 Units / 39% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+7.35 Units / 22% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Matt Mervis has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 games (+15.90 Units / 159% ROI)
- Otto Lopez has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 20 games at home (+9.85 Units / 49% ROI)
- Otto Lopez has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 25 games at home (+8.70 Units / 28% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Over in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+8.55 Units / 70% ROI)
- Kyle Stowers has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 15 games (+8.40 Units / 56% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 91% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.75 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.25 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.05 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 games (+4.05 Units / 26% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 14 of their last 18 games (+9.05 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 10 games (+7.90 Units / 72% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.00 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 games at home (+2.65 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+2.20 Units / 19% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 13-10 against the Run Line (-0.35 Units / -1.02% ROI).
- 11-12 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.35 Units / -1.35% ROI
- 12-10 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.1 Units / 4.34% ROI
- 10-12 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.05 Units / -12.08% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 11-11 against the Run Line (-1.4 Units / -5.19% ROI).
- 10-12 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.2 Units / 9.67% ROI
- 15-7 when betting on the total runs Over for +7 Units / 28.34% ROI
- 7-15 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.3 Units / -39.24% ROI
Marlins vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Matt Mervis (MIA) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -800 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Austin Hays (CIN) | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Connor Norby (MIA) | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1000 |
Marlins vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Eric Wagaman (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Austin Hays (CIN) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Marlins vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Hays (CIN) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Eric Wagaman (MIA) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Noelvi Marte (CIN) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -235 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Marlins vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Edward Cabrera (MIA) | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -135 |
| Nick Martinez (CIN) | 5.5 +130 | 5.5 -165 |
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 33% (106/320) against Nick Martinez on fastballs since the 2023 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 138 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 33% (65/197) against Nick Martinez on fastballs since last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 73 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 99th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 17% (5/30) against Nick Martinez this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: 42% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 42% (14/33) against Nick Martinez over the last 14 days — highest among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 24% — second Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Edward Cabrera has walked 14% of batters since the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 138 total IP; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Left-handed hitters had a line drive rate of just 14% (18/133) against Edward Cabrera in 2023 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Edward Cabrera has walked 16% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 138 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 0 Percentile.
Edward Cabrera walked 29 of 166 batters (17%) versus the top of the order in 2023 — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 8% — second Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Reds were just 5-16 (.238) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 14-27 (.341) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds were just 8-18 (.308) when tied entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .498.
The Reds are just 0-10 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .082.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Marlins were just 14-31 (.311) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Mets (seventh best runs scored) today.
The Marlins were just 30-51 (.370) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Marlins were just 39-14 (.736) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.
The Marlins are just 51-12 (.810) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .902.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .116 on pitches out of the zone since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .149.
Reds hitters are slugging just .152 on pitches out of the zone since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .204.
Reds hitters have chased 25% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Reds hitters slugged just .151 on pitches out of the zone in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .204.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Marlins batted .281 against LHP in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .254.
The Marlins were just 4-17 (.190) against the run line (-61.9% ROI) when slight moneyline favorites (-101 to -149) in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .447.
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 36% against Reds pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% against Reds pitchers over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
The Marlins allowed 6.04 runs per game (489/81) at home in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.41.
Marlins pitchers had an ERA of 5.37 (751.0 IP) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
Opponents had a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers in 2023 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Marlins pitchers this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
More MLB Reading:
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