Florida vs. Alabama: Prediction, Pick, Odds Preview

One of the biggest battles of the SEC basketball season will tip off Wednesday in Tuscaloosa. The two teams haven’t played since last season’s SEC Tournament. 

This year, Florida and Alabama have both risen to the top echelon of the college basketball national championship odds, which means this showdown could have major betting implications for anyone reading the market in the final days before March Madness begins.

For those looking for a more narrow betting analysis of the game, I’ve got you covered with an angle on how to handicap yet another SEC showcase. 

Florida vs. Alabama Odds

• Florida vs. Alabama Point Spread: TBD
• Florida vs. Alabama Moneyline: TBD
• Florida vs. Alabama Over/Under: TBD

Florida vs. Alabama Preview

Let’s start with Alabama, which might be a slightly easier team to define. The Crimson Tide are a high-scoring team with the No. 1 fastest adjusted tempo of play in all of Division I college basketball. 

In brief, they’re good at shooting the ball and scoring. They play fast, which helps them score even more.

Florida is probably a little more balanced, as the Gators are a top 10 adjusted efficiency team on both the offensive and defensive sides of the ball. Traditionally, this is exactly the sort of team that wins in March. 

Most fans knew Alabama was good, seeing as Nate Oats took the Tide to the Final Four last year. But over the course of the season, the college basketball futures market has also evolved to reflect the Gators as an absolute top contender. 

Whether or not Alabama’s effective offense will solve Florida’s strong defense and verticality is an open question. Taking a position on the game itself feels like a gamble in the truest sense of the word. I have little feel for the outcome.

What I am looking for at the market open is the total. Because Alabama and Florida both wield fast, efficient offenses, their games tend to be incredibly high-scoring affairs. While the market knows this in broad terms, it may not correctly account for just how long the high-end tail is on this game’s scoring distribution.

Last year’s SEC Tournament game is a good example of what is possible. Alabama and Florida combined for 190 points in a game where neither team made more than seven total 3-pointers. Oats’ team shot less than 25% from behind the arc and it still scored 88 points!

Florida vs. Alabama Prediction

I am predicting an over in Wednesday’s Florida vs. Alabama game. 

While I need to see the final number before officially committing to a bet, I’m looking to play an over in the game if the number is reasonable.

Alabama often has totals in the low to mid-170s. A total in that range or lower would be an automatic bet for me. 

Florida vs. Alabama Pick: Over