March Madness First Round: Predictions & Bets From 2025 NCAA Tournament

The games are underway, and March Madness 2025 has commenced. College basketball odds are available by the truckload from now through the end of the weekend.

I’m writing loads of good NCAA Tournament content and analysis here at the Roar. For those looking to get involved with the futures market, my college basketball national championship odds breakdown goes deep into both futures analysis and internal BetMGM data. It’s a must-read. 

As the first round of the NCAA Tournament unfolds, handicappers will be digging for all the best bets available in the college basketball betting marketplace. Below, I’ve listed my favorite bets & predictions for the first round of the NCAA Tournament, as well as some details outlining why I like each bet. You can also check back next week for Sweet 16 odds & best bets!

March Madness First Round Best Bets

• Memphis +110
• Louisville -3.5
• Houston -29.5
• UCLA -5.5
• UC San Diego +118
• Drake 1H +3.5
• Baylor +100
• Lipscomb +15.5
• North Carolina -125
• Troy +11.5
• New Mexico +4.5

Memphis vs. Colorado State Prediction

I’m usually a fan of betting the lower-seeded team when it’s favored over the higher-seeded team, as is the case here with No. 12 Colorado State favored to win. 

But the market for this game is being heavily influenced by the health of Memphis’ backcourt – specifically Dante Harris and Tyrese Hunter. 

Those are good reasons to be concerned about a team, but Memphis is still going to have the best players on the court (and one of the best players in college basketball) in PJ Haggerty. 

Considering Colorado State hasn’t advanced past the first round in the Niko Medved era despite some decent seeds, I’m inclined to take the plus money with Haggerty and the Tigers.

Memphis vs. Colorado State Pick: Memphis +110

Louisville vs. Creighton Prediction

This is an easy one. Louisville is wildly underseeded as a No. 8, relative to how the Cardinals have been playing down the stretch. I’m happy to lay the short number. 

Louisville vs. Creighton Pick: Louisville -3.5

Houston vs. SIU-Edwardsville Prediction

This is a giant number, but defense-oriented Houston has a habit of destroying No. 16 seeds in totally lopsided first-round affairs. 

Consider last year’s 86-46 game against Longwood, which cracked the list of biggest March Madness blowouts ever. Or Houston’s first tournament game in 2021, when the Cougars routed Cleveland State 87-56.

Houston vs. SIU-Edwardsville Pick: Houston -29.5

UCLA vs. Utah State Prediction

Mick Cronin got UCLA into the NCAA Tournament in three of his first five years as head coach of the Bruins. (One of the other two was 2020.) Each time, UCLA has advanced to at least the Sweet 16.

I like the coaching experience UCLA brings into this game, and Utah State has been trending in the wrong direction over the latter half of this season. 

I’m willing to lay 5.5, though the moneyline is obviously safer and could make a nice leg for a two or three-game moneyline parlay. 

UCLA vs. Utah State Pick: UCLA -5.5

Michigan vs. UC San Diego Prediction

I highlighted the Tritons as one of my favorite March Madness upset picks this year, and I’m certainly not backing down now. 

Michigan vs. UC San Diego Pick: UCSD +125

Missouri vs. Drake Prediction

I think Drake will have some interesting offensive opportunities against Missouri thanks largely to its ferociously slow pace of play. 

Over the course of a full 40 minutes, I don’t know if that’ll be enough to take down Missouri. But a successful strategy for a lot of these first-round tournament games is to count on a scrappy mid-major to play a great 20 minutes before folding after halftime, and that’s exactly the sort of strategy I think Drake’s slow-play gimmick could play toward.

Missouri vs. Drake Pick: Drake 1H +3.5

Mississippi State vs. Baylor Prediction

Baylor is the better team here, in my estimation. Bettors are being asked to pay an SEC premium with the Bulldogs. 

Mississippi State vs. Baylor Pick: Baylor +100

Iowa State vs. Lipscomb Prediction

I think Lipscomb might be a year or two away from pulling a big March Madness upset, so I have some reservations about advancing the Bisons in your bracket.

That said, 14.5 points is a pretty hefty price for an Iowa State team that’s been dealing with backcourt injuries for weeks on end. I like Lipscomb to cover a big spread like this, and I’ll probably add some 1H exposure as well. 

Iowa State vs. Lipscomb Pick: Lipscomb +15.5

Ole Miss vs. North Carolina Prediction

I highlighted North Carolina as a good buy in the Sweet 16 futures market even before their Tuesday bludgeoning of San Diego State. The market is now correcting to where I was after the bracket dropped, which is to hang UNC as a favorite over No. 6 Ole Miss.

I’m not sure where the right place is for the market to settle – for example, it’s not hard to imagine a bull rush to bet UNC that ends up creating counterplay value on the Rebels. 

For now, I’ll stick with my gut on the Tar Heels as a reasonable -125 buy point. Though personally, I’m keeping my unit count smaller here, since I already have the +625 futures exposure. 

Ole Miss vs. North Carolina Pick: North Carolina -125

Kentucky vs. Troy Prediction

There’s often value in finding good NCAA Tournament dogs that haven’t been talked up by all the analysts. 

Troy might be a good example of that. The Trojans lead with defense, and that might be a tough solve for Kentucky in a tournament setting. 

I don’t see much opportunity for the outright upset, but 11.5 points is a nice cushion for a March Madness game. 

Kentucky vs. Troy Pick: Troy +11.5

Marquette vs. New Mexico Prediction

As good as Kam Jones is, I’m just not very high on Marquette right now. With this number now popped out to 4.5, I really like the buy point for the Lobos.

Marquette vs. New Mexico Pick: New Mexico +4.5