- The 49ers are slight favorites against the Chiefs in the second half.
- How to bet the total and either buy out or double down at halftime.
- Patrick Mahomes has excelled as an underdog in the second half.
Ahead of Super Bowl LVIII at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, I’m here to offer a 49ers vs. Chiefs prediction.
Rather than focusing on the full game spread or total – be sure to check out those Super Bowl LVIII Predictions – I’ll break down the second half below.
Here’s a look at those NFL betting lines for Super Bowl LVIII, along with my bets for the early action.
49ers vs. Chiefs Betting Odds – Second Half
- San Francisco 49ers Moneyline: -115
- Kansas City Chiefs Moneyline: -105
- Second Half Spread: Chiefs -0.5 (+110)
- Second Half Total: 23.5 Points (Under: -115)
49ers vs. Chiefs Betting Prediction – Second Half
Second Half Total Under 23.5 Points (-115)
By applying some of the information I outlined in How to Live Bet the Super Bowl, bettors can take this market now and either buy out or double down at halftime.
The biggest factor in making that decision is whether the first half total goes over or under the pregame number of 22.5.
If you read my Super Bowl LVIII First Half Prediction, you know I like the under.
The biggest worry here is that in five 49ers games that finished under the first half total, the second half total is 3-2 to the over, including 1-1 in non-conference games.
However, every other signal points to the under.
In Chiefs games that finish under the first half total by at least half a point, the second half under is 5-1.
Even if the first half goes over by a narrow margin – let’s say it lands on 24 points – the second half under is 10-1 in Kansas City games.
But let’s say the first half features 20 or fewer points.
Five Chiefs games this season have finished under the first half total by at least 2.5 points. All five went on to finish under the second half total.
That’s a stronger indicator of success than the 49ers’ record when the first half finishes under the total, so I’m willing to take a risk and back it.
Plus, if the first half proves low-scoring, it likely means the Chiefs are ahead.
That will force the 49ers into a pass-heavy game script and attack a Chiefs defense that’s third in passing EPA per play.
That said, if the Chiefs find themselves behind at halftime, I would buy out of this number.
However, if bettors see the first half go under, I would double down at halftime and bet it again.
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