- The 49ers are -1 point favorites vs the Dolphins
- Total (Over/Under): 44.5 points
- Watch this game on CBS
The San Francisco 49ers (6-8-0) visit Hard Rock Stadium to take on the Miami Dolphins (6-8-0) on Dec. 22. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25pm EST in Miami Gardens, FL.
The 49ers are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -1 (-105).
The 49ers vs. Dolphins Over/Under is 44.5 total points for the game.
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49ers vs. Dolphins Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| 49ers | -1 -105 | 44.5 -110 | -110 |
| Dolphins | +1 -125 | 44.5 -110 | -110 |
49ers vs. Dolphins Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Dolphins will win this game with 68.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
49ers vs Dolphins Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Dolphins will cover the spread with 63.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for 49ers players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best 49ers Player Prop Bets Today
- Brock Purdy has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.55 Units / 34% ROI)
- Brock Purdy has hit the TD Passes Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.40 Units / 31% ROI)
- Jauan Jennings has hit the Receptions Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+6.10 Units / 36% ROI)
- Ricky Pearsall has hit the Receptions Under in his last 5 games (+5.85 Units / 117% ROI)
- Deebo Samuel has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.05 Units / 27% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Dolphins players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Dolphins Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Braxton Berrios has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 84% ROI)
- Devon Achane has hit the Carries Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+5.70 Units / 27% ROI)
- Durham Smythe has hit the Receptions Over in his last 5 games (+5.50 Units / 83% ROI)
- Jason Sanders has hit the Field Goals Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+5.40 Units / 26% ROI)
- Tua Tagovailoa has hit the Pass Attempts Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.35 Units / 33% ROI)
First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Dolphins vs 49ers
| Player Name | 1st TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Isaac Guerendo (SF) | +500 |
| De'Von Achane (MIA) | +500 |
| Patrick Taylor (SF) | +700 |
49ers Best Bets:
- The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.43 Units / 31% ROI)
- The San Francisco 49ers have covered the 1Q Spread in 13 of their last 22 games (+4.70 Units / 19% ROI)
- The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 13 of their last 22 games (+3.90 Units / 10% ROI)
- The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 19 games (+3.45 Units / 15% ROI)
- The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 9 away games (+2.20 Units / 20% ROI)
Dolphins Best Bets:
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 1H Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+3.50 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+2.45 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+2.30 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games at home (+1.15 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 11 games at home (+0.35 Units / 3% ROI)
49ers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the 49ers art 5-9 (-4.7 Units / -30.92% ROI).
- 49ers are 6-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.8 Units / -30.2% ROI
- 49ers are 7-7 when betting the Over for -0.7 Units / -4.55% ROI
- 49ers are 7-7 when betting the Under for -0.7 Units / ROI
Dolphins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Dolphins are 5-9 (-5.05 Units / -32.17% ROI).
- Dolphins are 6-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -4 Units / -16.13% ROI
- Dolphins are 6-8 when betting the Over for -2.8 Units / -18.18% ROI
- Dolphins are 8-6 when betting the Under for +1.4 Units / 9.09% ROI
San Francisco 49ers: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Dolphins
The 49ers were winless (0-3) when within 7 points at the two minute warning last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The 49ers were winless (0-5) when scoring less than 22 points last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .253.
The 49ers are winless (0-11) when scoring less than 22 points since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .246.
The 49ers are winless (0-6) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .429.
Miami Dolphins: Keys to the Game vs. the San Francisco 49ers
The Dolphins were undefeated (7-0) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .574.
The Dolphins were 3-1 (.750) when not forcing a turnover last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .265.
The Dolphins are 7-7 (.500) when rushing less than 25 times since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .274.
The Dolphins are winless (0-8) vs top 10 run offenses since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .381.
Additional Matchup Notes for San Francisco 49ers vs. Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins have run successful plays on 59.3% of rush attempts against a base rush this season — 5th-best in NFL. The 49ers have allowed successful plays on 60.9% of rush attempts with a base rush this season — 4th-worst in NFL.
Dolphins RBs have averaged 5.2 touches per game in the red zone this season — T-4th-highest in NFL. The 49ers have allowed 13 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone to RBs this season — T-most in NFL.
The Dolphins have thrown for 20+ yards on 31 of 490 attempts this season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The 49ers allowed 20+ yards on just 6.8% of attempts this season — 2nd-best in NFL.
The 49ers have been successful on 56.0% of plays they have run on play action passes since the 2023 season — 4th-best in NFL. The Dolphins have allowed their opponents to be successful on 51.6% of plays on play action passes since the 2023 season — 4th-worst in NFL.
The 49ers ran just 28.3% offensive plays on their opponent’s side of the field last week — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Dolphins allowed their opponents to runjust 31.9% of plays in their territory last week — 4th-best in NFL.
The 49ers have averaged 0.58 epa per play against open coverage since the 2023 season — best in NFL. The Dolphins have allowed 0.45 epa per play with open coverage since the 2023 season — 4th-worst in NFL.
San Francisco 49ers Offense: Important Stats
The 49ers ran successful plays on 21% of rush attempts against a light front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.
The 49ers ran successful plays on 53% of plays against a base front last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
The 49ers ran successful plays on 56% of pass attempts on motion plays last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 47%.
The 49ers ran successful plays on 53% of rush attempts against a base front last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.
Miami Dolphins Offense: Important Stats
The Dolphins have faced a blitz just 8% of the time this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 15%.
The Dolphins have averaged 0.84 epa per play against a heavy rush this season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.00.
The Dolphins had 19 TDs that were 20+ yards last season — most in NFL.
The Dolphins scored 8 TDs from their own territory last season — most in NFL.
San Francisco 49ers Defense: Important Stats
The 49ers defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 49% with a light front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 31%.
The 49ers defense allowed -0.56 epa per play with a light rush last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: -0.04.
The 49ers defense allowed successful plays on 10% of plays with a light rush last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 39%.
The 49ers defense has allowed a passer rating of just 16.2 when they have pressured the QB (57 Pass Attempts) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 58.9.
Miami Dolphins Defense: Important Stats
The Dolphins defense has not allowed a third down conversion with a heavy rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 34%.
The Dolphins defense have allowed -0.73 epa per play with a heavy rush this season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.00.
The Dolphins defense have allowed -0.44 epa per play on contested throws this season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.08.
The Dolphins defense has allowed a passer rating of just 57.0 with a heavy rush (16 Pass Attempts) this season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: 105.0.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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