- The 49ers are a 3.5-point home underdog against the Lions.
- The 49ers have won each of their last 14 home games against the Lions.
- My 49ers vs. Lions prediction focuses on the Lions team total.
A rematch of the NFC Championship takes place on Monday as the 49ers host the Lions.
San Francisco’s playoff hopes ended with a 29-17 loss against the Dolphins in Week 16, despite market support for the Niners. It marks the first time they’ll miss the postseason since 2020.
Detroit earned yet another win and cover in Week 16 as road favorites against the Bears. The Lions covered in a 34-17 victory and have yet to lose away from home this season.
Bet on 49ers vs. Lions and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
NFL Week 17 Odds: 49ers vs. Lions
49ers vs. Lions Prediction, MNF
Based on the Lions’ continued offensive success and San Francisco’s defensive struggles against good teams, my 49ers vs. Lions prediction is the Lions Team Total Over.
A strong defensive showing for the 49ers appears unlikely, especially with zero for which left to play.
Detroit ranks third in offensive expected points added (EPA) per play and first in offensive success rate.
Perhaps most impressively about the Lions is their ability to score against good defenses.
Detroit ranks fourth in offensive DVOA, having played the eighth-hardest set of opposing defenses, per ftnfantasy.com.
Now, Detroit faces a 49ers defense that has struggled this season against quality offenses.
Albeit in a limited sample size, San Francisco has played two games against teams fifth or better in offensive DVOA this season: at Buffalo and Green Bay.
Both teams exploded for at least 35 points against the 49ers defense, which has kept only two teams under 29 points over their previous five games.
Conversely, the Lions have previously shown an ability to score against even the best defenses.
Monday’s game against San Francisco marks the sixth time this season Detroit faces a defense 10th or better in defensive DVOA.
The Lions averaged 31.4 points per game in the previous five and never amassed fewer than 24 points in any of those contests.
Across just those five games, the Lions cleared 27.5 points in a majority.
As a result, it would come as a surprise if San Francisco can limit one of the best offenses in the league, especially with extra rest for Detroit.
Betting 49ers vs. Lions: NFL Public Betting
Check back on Friday for 49ers vs. Lions public betting data and insights.
