- The Bears are a 6.5-point home underdog against the Lions.
- The Bears have lost 10 straight games when playing with a rest disadvantage.
- My Bears vs. Lions prediction focuses on the first half spread.
Two NFC North sides off defeats meet on Sunday at Solider Field, with the Bears hosting the Lions.
Detroit fell 48-42 to the Bills in Week 15, their first loss of the season since Week 2. Currently, Detroit sits tied atop the division with the 12-2 Vikings thanks to a head-to-head win.
The Bears suffered another bad loss on Monday Night Football at the aforementioned Vikings. A 30-12 defeat resigned Chicago to their eighth straight defeat.
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NFL Week 16 Odds: Bears vs. Lions
Bears vs. Lions Prediction
Based on the Lions’ exceptional record in the first half and their rest advantage over Chicago, my Bears vs. Lions prediction is the Lions 1H Spread (-3.5, -115).
It’s easy to feel sorry for the Lions defense, which lost Alim McNeil and Carlton Davis for the season on Sunday.
While their offense also lost David Montgomery for the year, I expect it still produces a strong start against a bad Bears defense.
Chicago ranks 20th in defensive success rate and 24th in defensive EPA per play across the first two quarters.
On Sunday, they’ll face a Lions offense ranking second in the corresponding offensive categories, per rbsdm.com.
While Detroit obviously featured superior personnel the last time these teams played, they still jumped out to a 16-0 halftime edge at Ford Field.
Although Detroit struggled immensely in the first half defensively against the Bills, that result came against an offense first in 1H EPA per play this season.
On Sunday, Detroit plays a Chicago offense 29th in that category.
Even if the Bears offense improves against a weakening Detroit defense, I still trust the Lions offense to exploit a Bears defense on short rest.
History also likes this spot for the Lions.
Road favorites between -3.5 and -0.5 in the first half off a loss by 3-15 points as favorites are 64% ATS in the next first half, including 17-4 over the last two years.
When Dan Campbell finds himself in that spot, he’s a perfect 2-0 ATS in the first half.
Betting Bears vs. Lions: NFL Public Betting
Check back on Friday for Bears vs. Lions public betting data and insights.
