Bengals vs Giants Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 6

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Giants player number 8 holding a NFL game ball.

(AP Photo/Michael Ainsworth)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 09, 2024, 12:10 PM

The Bengals are -3.5 point favorites vs the Giants
Total (Over/Under): 48 points
Watch this game on NBC

The Cincinnati Bengals (1-4-0) visit MetLife Stadium to take on the New York Giants (2-3-0) on Oct. 13. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20pm EDT in East Rutherford, NJ.

The Bengals are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-105).

The Bengals vs. Giants Over/Under is 48 total points for the game.

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Bengals vs. Giants Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Bengals	-3.5 -105	48 -110	-185
Giants	+3.5 -115	48 -110	+150

Bengals vs. Giants Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Bengals will win this game with 70.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Bengals vs Giants Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Giants will cover the spread with 60.9% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Bengals players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Bengals Player Prop Bets Today

Mike Gesicki has hit the Longest Reception Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 81% ROI)
Zack Moss has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 7 away games (+7.00 Units / 80% ROI)
Joe Burrow has hit the TD Passes Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.90 Units / 47% ROI)
Ja’Marr Chase has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+5.55 Units / 23% ROI)
Zack Moss has hit the Longest Rush Under in his last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 78% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Giants players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Giants Player Prop Best Bets Today

Darius Slayton has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+7.35 Units / 42% ROI)
Devin Singletary has hit the Longest Rush Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.75 Units / 54% ROI)
Darius Slayton has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.30 Units / 32% ROI)
Wan’Dale Robinson has hit the Receptions Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+6.10 Units / 30% ROI)
Tommy DeVito has hit the Interceptions Under in his last 5 games (+6.00 Units / 120% ROI)

Bengals Best Bets:

The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 9 away games (+6.85 Units / 67% ROI)
The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.30 Units / 27% ROI)
The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 8 away games (+5.75 Units / 64% ROI)
The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games (+4.70 Units / 22% ROI)
The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 away games (+4.40 Units / 41% ROI)

Giants Best Bets:

The New York Giants have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 17 games (+9.00 Units / 52% ROI)
The New York Giants have covered the 2Q Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.05 Units / 30% ROI)
The New York Giants have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+5.90 Units / 60% ROI)
The New York Giants have hit the 2H Moneyline in 5 of their last 10 games (+5.70 Units / 57% ROI)
The New York Giants have scored last in 6 of their last 8 games (+5.65 Units / 71% ROI)

Bengals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Bengals art 2-3 (-1.15 Units / -21.5% ROI).

Bengals are 1-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.15 Units / -71.49% ROI
Bengals are 4-1 when betting the Over for +2.9 Units / 52.73% ROI
Bengals are 1-4 when betting the Under for -3.4 Units / ROI

Giants Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Giants are 3-2 (+0.8 Units / 14.55% ROI).

Giants are 2-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.9 Units / 37.25% ROI
Giants are 1-4 when betting the Over for -3.4 Units / -61.82% ROI
Giants are 4-1 when betting the Under for +2.9 Units / 52.73% ROI

Cincinnati Bengals: Keys to the Game vs. the New York Giants

The Bengals were undefeated (5-0) when allowing less than 100 rushing yards last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .664.

The Bengals were 1-5 (.167) when intercepting no passes last season — T-6th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .348.

The Bengals are 8-2 (.800) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .561.

The Bengals were 4-1 (.800) when allowing less than 7 explosive plays last season — T-8th-best in NFL; League Avg: .622.

New York Giants: Keys to the Game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals

The Giants were 3-6 (.333) when forcing 2 or more turnovers last season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .707.

The Giants are 1-3 (.250) vs top 10 run defenses since the 2023 season — T-4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .465.

The Giants were 2-10 (.167) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game last season — 5th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .426.

The Giants are 6-11 (.353) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season — 8th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .474.

Additional Matchup Notes for Cincinnati Bengals vs. New York Giants

The Giants ran successful plays on 54.8% of pass attempts against a base front last week — 5th-best in NFL. The Bengals allowed successful plays on 66.7% of pass attempts with a base front last week — worst in NFL.

The Giants have a third down conversion rate of 52.8% in the first half this season — 4th-best in NFL. The Bengals defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 51.7% in the first half this season — 5th-worst in NFL.

Giants WRs have 5 receiving touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — T-2nd-most in NFL. The Bengals have allowed 7 receiving touchdowns when defending in the red zone this season — T-3rd-most in NFL.

The Bengals have run successful plays on 53.5% of pass attempts against a base rush this season — T-2nd-best in NFL. The Giants have allowed successful plays on 51.1% of pass attempts with a base rush this season — 4th-worst in NFL.

The Bengals have run successful plays on 53.8% of pass attempts this season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Giants have allowed successful plays on 50.3% of pass attempts this season — 4th-worst in NFL.

The Bengals have run successful plays on 52.8% of pass attempts against a base front this season — 5th-best in NFL. The Giants have allowed successful plays on 54.5% of pass attempts with a base front this season — 3rd-worst in NFL.

Cincinnati Bengals Offense: Important Stats

The Bengals averaged -0.85 epa per play against tight coverage last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.52.

The Bengals threw the ball 36% of the time (10 Pass Attempts/28 plays) in close and late situations last season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 55%.

The Bengals have averaged -0.77 epa per play against tight coverage since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.50.

The Bengals have run 6% of their plays in the red zone in the 4th quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

New York Giants Offense: Important Stats

The Giants averaged -0.26 epa per play against a stacked front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.01.

The Giants ran successful plays on 26% of pass attempts against a stacked front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 50%.

The Giants were sacked on 14% of pass attempts (85/603) last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 7%.

Giants QBs were sacked 85 times last season — most in NFL.

Cincinnati Bengals Defense: Important Stats

The Bengals defense has allowed 10 TDs on first drive of the game since the 2023 season — most in NFL.

The Bengals defense has allowed successful plays on 56% of plays on motion plays this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Bengals defense has allowed successful plays on 55% of rush attempts with a base front this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Bengals defense has allowed successful plays on 50% of plays on motion plays since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

New York Giants Defense: Important Stats

The Giants defense sacked opponents 7 times in Week 5 — T-most in NFL.

The Giants defense has allowed a Completion Pct of 100% (7 completions/7 attempts) on 3rd and short this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 55%.

The Giants defense blitzed on 25% of plays last season — 2nd-highest in NFL; League Avg: 15%.

The Giants defense has sacked opposing QBs on 12% of pass attempts (22/179) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 7%.

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