- The Bills (2-0) are -4.5 point favorites vs the Dolphins (2-0)
- Total (Over/Under): 53.5 points
- Watch the game on CBS
The Buffalo Bills (2-0) visit Hard Rock Stadium to take on the Miami Dolphins (2-0) on Sep. 25. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Miami Gardens.
The Bills are betting favorites in Week 3, with the spread sitting at -4.5 (-115).
The Bills vs. Dolphins Over/Under is 53.5 total points for the game.
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Bills vs. Dolphins Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 3
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Buffalo Bills | -4.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 | -225 |
| Miami Dolphins | +4.5 -105 | 53.5 -110 | +180 |
Bills vs. Dolphins Prediction for Week 3
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Bills will win this Week 3 game with 60.5% confidence.
Bills vs Dolphins Spread Prediction for Week 3
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Dolphins will cover the spread this Week 3 with 58.0% confidence.
Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Bills and Dolphins, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.
Best Bills Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Bills players for Week 3, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Dolphins Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Dolphins players for Week 3, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Dolphins vs Bills
| Player Name | 1st TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | +700 |
| Tyreek Hill | +900 |
| Josh Allen | +1000 |
| Jaylen Waddle | +1100 |
| Devin Singletary | +1100 |
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Dolphins vs Bills
| Player Name | Anytime TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | -110 |
| Tyreek Hill | +100 |
| Josh Allen | +125 |
| Jaylen Waddle | +135 |
| Gabriel Davis | +160 |
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Dolphins vs Bills
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Waddle | 63.5 -115 | 63.5 -115 |
| Chase Edmonds | 18.5 -115 | 18.5 -115 |
| Devin Singletary | 10.5 -110 | 10.5 -115 |
| Raheem Mostert | 7.5 -115 | 7.5 -115 |
| Gabriel Davis | 55.5 -115 | 55.5 -115 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Dolphins vs Bills
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 39.5 -115 | 39.5 -115 |
| Devin Singletary | 38.5 -115 | 38.5 -115 |
| Raheem Mostert | 38.5 -115 | 38.5 -115 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 6.5 -115 | 6.5 -115 |
| Chase Edmonds | 31.5 -115 | 31.5 -110 |
Bills Betting Trends: ATS, Moneyline, Over/Under
Dolphins Betting Trends: ATS, Moneyline, Over/Under
Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Bills have gone 2-0 (+2 Units / 93.02% ROI).
- Bills are 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 35.09% ROI
- Bills are 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Bills are 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / ROI
Dolphins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Dolphins have gone 2-0 (+2 Units / 86.96% ROI).
- Dolphins are 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.5 Units / 96.15% ROI
- Dolphins are 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Dolphins are 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Dolphins
The Bills are winless (0-4) when within 7 points at the two minute warning since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .492.
The Bills were winless (0-4) when within 7 points at the two minute warning last season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .495.
The Bills were winless (0-3) when rushing less than 20 times last season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .121.
The Bills were winless (0-4) when scoring less than 22 points last season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .222.
Miami Dolphins: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills
The Dolphins were 5-1 (.833) when allowing less than 7 explosive plays last season — tied for 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .583.
The Dolphins were 3-6 (.333) when rushing less than 25 times last season — tied for 9th-best in NFL; League Avg: .270.
The Dolphins were 6-1 (.857) vs bottom 10 run defenses last season — 6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .635.
The Dolphins are 3-2 (.600) when passing on 60% or more of plays since Week 7 of 2021 — 4th-best in NFL; League Avg: .264.
Additional Matchup Notes for Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins have a third down conversion rate of just 11.3% on 3rd and 10+ YTG since the 2021 season — second-worst in NFL. The Bills defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of just 6.1% on 3rd and 10+ YTG since the 2021 season — best in NFL.
Dolphins RBs have averaged just 64.0 rushing yards per game this season — fifth-worst in NFL. The Bills have allowed an average of just 66.0 rushing yards per game this season — best in NFL.
Dolphins RBs have just 28.5 receiving yards per game since the 2021 season — fifth-worst in NFL. The Bills have averaged just 26.4 receiving yards per game allowed to RBs since the 2021 season — third-best in NFL.
The Bills allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 12.5% of pass attempts last week — fifth-best in NFL. The Dolphins have pressured opposing QBs on just 6.9% of passing plays in Week 2 — second-worst in NFL.
The Bills have allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 9.9% of pass attempts this season — best in NFL. The Dolphins have pressured opposing QBs on just 8.5% of passing plays this season — worst in NFL.
The Bills have thrown for 8.6 yards per attempt this season — fourth-best in NFL. The Dolphins have allowed 8.7 yards per dropback this season — worst in NFL.
Buffalo Bills Offense: Important Stats for Week 3
The Bills had an average drive start position from the 37.0 yard line in the 1st quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 25.7.
The Bills have run 28% of their plays in the red zone in the 4th quarter since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.
The Bills ran 28% of their plays in the red zone in the 4th quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.
The Bills have started 30 drives inside opposing territory since the 2021 season — 2nd-most in NFL.
Miami Dolphins Offense: Important Stats for Week 3
The Dolphins threw for 6 TDs in Week 2 — most in NFL.
The Dolphins have converted first downs on 7 of 11 plays (64%) on 3rd and long this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 27%.
The Dolphins have run successful plays on 33% of rush attempts in the 1st half since the 2021 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
The Dolphins have averaged 10.5 yards per attempt (620 yards/59 attempts) on passes out of the shotgun this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 6.8.
Buffalo Bills Defense: Important Stats for Week 3
The Bills defense allowed 12 TD passes last season — fewest in NFL.
The Bills defense allowed a passer rating of just 65.4 (531 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 90.8.
The Bills defense allowed an average of 13.8 fantasy points per game as a unit to WRs last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 21.8.
The Bills defense allowed a Completion Pct of just 56% (298 completions/531 attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 65%.
Miami Dolphins Defense: Important Stats for Week 3
Offenses facing the Dolphins targeted TEs 55% of the time (16 Pass Attempts/29 plays) in Week 2 — highest in NFL; League Avg: 20%.
Offenses facing the Dolphins targeted TEs 39% of the time (23 Pass Attempts/59 plays) this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 20%.
The Dolphins defense blitzed on 24% of plays last season — 2nd-highest in NFL; League Avg: 15%.
25% of the plays ran against the Dolphins were in the red zone in the 4th quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 17%.
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