Bills vs Dolphins Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 3

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 25, 2022, 10:43 AM
  • The Bills (2-0) are -4.5 point favorites vs the Dolphins (2-0)
  • Total (Over/Under): 53.5 points
  • Watch the game on CBS

The Buffalo Bills (2-0) visit Hard Rock Stadium to take on the Miami Dolphins (2-0) on Sep. 25. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Miami Gardens.

The Bills are betting favorites in Week 3, with the spread sitting at -4.5 (-115).

The Bills vs. Dolphins Over/Under is 53.5 total points for the game.

Bet now on Dolphins vs Bills & all NFL games with BetMGM

Bills vs. Dolphins Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 3

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Buffalo Bills-4.5 -11553.5 -110-225
Miami Dolphins +4.5 -10553.5 -110+180

Bills vs. Dolphins Prediction for Week 3

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Bills will win this Week 3 game with 60.5% confidence.

Bills vs Dolphins Spread Prediction for Week 3

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Dolphins will cover the spread this Week 3 with 58.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Bills and Dolphins, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Bills Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Bills players for Week 3, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Gabriel Davis has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.50 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Dawson Knox has hit the Receptions Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+6.00 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Josh Allen has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 7 of his last 9 away games (+4.75 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Jamison Crowder has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.65 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Josh Allen has hit the Passing Yards Over in 7 of his last 9 away games (+4.55 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Best Dolphins Player Prop Best Bets Today

    And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Dolphins players for Week 3, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Myles Gaskin has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.55 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Teddy Bridgewater has hit the Completions Under in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+5.85 Units / 55% ROI)
  • Teddy Bridgewater has hit the Passing Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 60% ROI)
  • Myles Gaskin has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Tua Tagovailoa has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.40 Units / 43% ROI)
  • First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Dolphins vs Bills

    Player Name 1st TD Odds
    Stefon Diggs +700
    Tyreek Hill +900
    Josh Allen +1000
    Jaylen Waddle +1100
    Devin Singletary +1100

    Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Dolphins vs Bills

    Player Name Anytime TD Odds
    Stefon Diggs -110
    Tyreek Hill +100
    Josh Allen +125
    Jaylen Waddle +135
    Gabriel Davis +160

    Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Dolphins vs Bills

    Player Name Over Under
    Jaylen Waddle 63.5 -115 63.5 -115
    Chase Edmonds 18.5 -115 18.5 -115
    Devin Singletary 10.5 -110 10.5 -115
    Raheem Mostert 7.5 -115 7.5 -115
    Gabriel Davis 55.5 -115 55.5 -115

    Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Dolphins vs Bills

    Player Name Over Under
    Josh Allen 39.5 -115 39.5 -115
    Devin Singletary 38.5 -115 38.5 -115
    Raheem Mostert 38.5 -115 38.5 -115
    Tua Tagovailoa 6.5 -115 6.5 -115
    Chase Edmonds 31.5 -115 31.5 -110
  • The Buffalo Bills have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 12 games (+8.80 Units / 47% ROI)
  • The Buffalo Bills have covered the 2H Spread in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.60 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2H Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games (+8.30 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Buffalo Bills have scored first in their last 8 games (+8.05 Units / 55% ROI)
  • The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 19 games (+7.70 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Miami Dolphins have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 11 games (+13.00 Units / 67% ROI)
  • The Miami Dolphins have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.65 Units / 47% ROI)
  • The Miami Dolphins have covered the Spread in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.85 Units / 57% ROI)
  • The Miami Dolphins have scored last in their last 6 games at home (+6.35 Units / 84% ROI)
  • The Miami Dolphins have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games (+6.10 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this NFL season, the Bills have gone 2-0 (+2 Units / 93.02% ROI).

    • Bills are 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 35.09% ROI
    • Bills are 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
    • Bills are 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / ROI

    Dolphins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this NFL season, the Dolphins have gone 2-0 (+2 Units / 86.96% ROI).

    • Dolphins are 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.5 Units / 96.15% ROI
    • Dolphins are 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
    • Dolphins are 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI

    Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Dolphins

    The Bills are winless (0-4) when within 7 points at the two minute warning since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .492.

    The Bills were winless (0-4) when within 7 points at the two minute warning last season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .495.

    The Bills were winless (0-3) when rushing less than 20 times last season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .121.

    The Bills were winless (0-4) when scoring less than 22 points last season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .222.

    Miami Dolphins: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills

    The Dolphins were 5-1 (.833) when allowing less than 7 explosive plays last season — tied for 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .583.

    The Dolphins were 3-6 (.333) when rushing less than 25 times last season — tied for 9th-best in NFL; League Avg: .270.

    The Dolphins were 6-1 (.857) vs bottom 10 run defenses last season — 6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .635.

    The Dolphins are 3-2 (.600) when passing on 60% or more of plays since Week 7 of 2021 — 4th-best in NFL; League Avg: .264.

    Additional Matchup Notes for Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins

    The Dolphins have a third down conversion rate of just 11.3% on 3rd and 10+ YTG since the 2021 season — second-worst in NFL. The Bills defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of just 6.1% on 3rd and 10+ YTG since the 2021 season — best in NFL.

    Dolphins RBs have averaged just 64.0 rushing yards per game this season — fifth-worst in NFL. The Bills have allowed an average of just 66.0 rushing yards per game this season — best in NFL.

    Dolphins RBs have just 28.5 receiving yards per game since the 2021 season — fifth-worst in NFL. The Bills have averaged just 26.4 receiving yards per game allowed to RBs since the 2021 season — third-best in NFL.

    The Bills allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 12.5% of pass attempts last week — fifth-best in NFL. The Dolphins have pressured opposing QBs on just 6.9% of passing plays in Week 2 — second-worst in NFL.

    The Bills have allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 9.9% of pass attempts this season — best in NFL. The Dolphins have pressured opposing QBs on just 8.5% of passing plays this season — worst in NFL.

    The Bills have thrown for 8.6 yards per attempt this season — fourth-best in NFL. The Dolphins have allowed 8.7 yards per dropback this season — worst in NFL.

    Buffalo Bills Offense: Important Stats for Week 3

    The Bills had an average drive start position from the 37.0 yard line in the 1st quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 25.7.

    The Bills have run 28% of their plays in the red zone in the 4th quarter since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

    The Bills ran 28% of their plays in the red zone in the 4th quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

    The Bills have started 30 drives inside opposing territory since the 2021 season — 2nd-most in NFL.

    Miami Dolphins Offense: Important Stats for Week 3

    The Dolphins threw for 6 TDs in Week 2 — most in NFL.

    The Dolphins have converted first downs on 7 of 11 plays (64%) on 3rd and long this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 27%.

    The Dolphins have run successful plays on 33% of rush attempts in the 1st half since the 2021 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

    The Dolphins have averaged 10.5 yards per attempt (620 yards/59 attempts) on passes out of the shotgun this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 6.8.

    Buffalo Bills Defense: Important Stats for Week 3

    The Bills defense allowed 12 TD passes last season — fewest in NFL.

    The Bills defense allowed a passer rating of just 65.4 (531 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 90.8.

    The Bills defense allowed an average of 13.8 fantasy points per game as a unit to WRs last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 21.8.

    The Bills defense allowed a Completion Pct of just 56% (298 completions/531 attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 65%.

    Miami Dolphins Defense: Important Stats for Week 3

    Offenses facing the Dolphins targeted TEs 55% of the time (16 Pass Attempts/29 plays) in Week 2 — highest in NFL; League Avg: 20%.

    Offenses facing the Dolphins targeted TEs 39% of the time (23 Pass Attempts/59 plays) this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 20%.

    The Dolphins defense blitzed on 24% of plays last season — 2nd-highest in NFL; League Avg: 15%.

    25% of the plays ran against the Dolphins were in the red zone in the 4th quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

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    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.