Bills vs Lions Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 12

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 24, 2022, 9:00 AM
  • The Bills (7-3) are -9.5 point favorites vs the Lions (4-6)
  • Total (Over/Under): 54 points
  • Watch the game on CBS

The Buffalo Bills (7-3) visit Ford Field to take on the Detroit Lions (4-6) on Nov. 24. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:30pm EST in Detroit on Thanksgiving day.

The Bills are betting favorites in Week 12, with the spread sitting at -9.5 (-110).

The Bills vs. Lions Over/Under is 54.5 total points for the game.

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Bills vs. Lions Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 12

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Bills-9.5 -11054.5 -110-450
Lions +9.5 -11054.5 -110+350

Bills vs. Lions Prediction for Week 12

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Bills will win this Week 12 game with 77.0% confidence.

Bills vs Lions Spread Prediction for Week 12

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bills will cover the spread this Week 12 with 53.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Bills and Lions, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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Best Bills Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Bills players for Week 12, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Josh Allen has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+8.35 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Josh Allen has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.30 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Josh Allen has hit the Carries Over in his last 6 away games (+6.15 Units / 85% ROI)
  • Gabriel Davis has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.15 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Nyheim Hines has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 58% ROI)

Best Lions Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Lions players for Week 12, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jared Goff has hit the TD Passes Over in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+8.30 Units / 86% ROI)
  • Jamaal Williams has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.45 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Josh Reynolds has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+7.05 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Jamaal Williams has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.80 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown has hit the Receptions Over in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+5.05 Units / 64% ROI)

First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Lions vs Bills

Player Name 1st TD Odds
Stefon Diggs +500
Josh Allen +800
Devin Singletary +800
Gabriel Davis +800
Jamaal Williams +850

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Lions vs Bills

Player Name Anytime TD Odds
Stefon Diggs -150
Jamaal Williams -110
Gabriel Davis +120
Josh Allen +125
Devin Singletary +125

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Lions vs Bills

Player Name Over Under
Devin Singletary 14.5 -120 14.5 -110
Dawson Knox 38.5 -115 38.5 -115
Gabriel Davis 59.5 -115 59.5 -115
Amon-Ra St. Brown 76.5 -120 76.5 -115
Stefon Diggs 91.5 -120 91.5 -115

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Lions vs Bills

Player Name Over Under
Jared Goff 3.5 -115 3.5 -115
Devin Singletary 58.5 -115 58.5 -120
Josh Allen 42.5 -115 42.5 -120
Jamaal Williams 54.5 -110 54.5 -120
  • The Buffalo Bills have scored first in 13 of their last 16 games (+8.35 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.40 Units / 45% ROI)
  • The Buffalo Bills have covered the 2H Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.60 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+6.50 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+6.00 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Detroit Lions have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+8.50 Units / 97% ROI)
  • The Detroit Lions have hit the 1H Moneyline in 8 of their last 16 games (+8.40 Units / 50% ROI)
  • The Detroit Lions have covered the 1H Spread in 11 of their last 16 games (+6.75 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Detroit Lions have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+5.95 Units / 67% ROI)
  • The Detroit Lions have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+5.90 Units / 65% ROI)

Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Bills have gone 5-4 (+0.6 Units / 5.43% ROI).

  • Bills are 7-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.2 Units / -8.79% ROI
  • Bills are 3-7 when betting the Over for -4.7 Units / -42.73% ROI
  • Bills are 7-3 when betting the Under for +3.7 Units / ROI

Lions Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Lions have gone 6-4 (+1.5 Units / 13.57% ROI).

  • Lions are 4-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.15 Units / -10.65% ROI
  • Lions are 7-3 when betting the Over for +3.7 Units / 33.64% ROI
  • Lions are 3-7 when betting the Under for -4.7 Units / -42.73% ROI

Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the Detroit Lions

The Bills are winless (0-1) when making less than 7 explosive plays this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .387.

The Bills are 6-2 (.750) when making 5 or more explosive passes in a game this season — tied for 6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .537.

The Bills are 4-1 (.800) when not losing a fumble this season — tied for 6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .558.

The Bills are 2-3 (.400) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2021 season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .210.

Detroit Lions: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills

The Lions are 3-3-1 (.429) when forcing 2 or more turnovers since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .730.

The Lions are winless (0-2) when converting less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .447.

The Lions are 2-13-1 (.125) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .480.

The Lions are 1-5 (.167) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .476.

Additional Matchup Notes for Buffalo Bills vs. Detroit Lions

Lions RBs have averaged 8.7 yards after the catch this season — fourth-best in NFL. The Bills have allowed 8.5 yards after catch per reception to RBs this season — tied for third-worst in NFL.

The Lions are averaging just 1.5 yards per carry on 3rd and short this season — tied for third-worst in NFL. The Bills have allowed just 1.6 yards per carry when defending on 3rd and short this season — second-best in NFL.

The Bills have gone three and out on 13.5% of their drives this season — second-best in NFL. Lions have forced three and outs on 13.2% of opponent drives this season — worst in NFL.

The Bills have scored on 45.9% of their drives this season — second-best in NFL. The Lions defense has allowed scores on 42.5% of opponent drives this season — fifth-worst in NFL.

The Bills have run 53.5% offensive plays in on their opponent’s side of the field this season — best in NFL. Lions have allowed their opponents to run 47.3% of plays in their territory this season — fourth-worst in NFL.

Buffalo Bills Offense: Important Stats for Week 12

The Bills have a third down conversion rate of 39% on third and 10+ yards to go this season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: 20%.

The Bills have started 8 drives inside their own 20 yard line in the 1st quarter since the 2021 season — fewest in NFL.

The Bills have run 54% of their plays in their opponent’s territory this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Bills have 10 TDs that were 20+ yards this season — 2nd-most in NFL.

Detroit Lions Offense: Important Stats for Week 12

The Lions rushed for 4 TDs in Week 11 — most in NFL.

The Lions had a third down conversion rate of 35% last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Lions started 4 drives inside opposing territory in Week 11 — most in NFL.

The Lions ran successful plays on 28% of rush attempts in the red zone last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

Buffalo Bills Defense: Important Stats for Week 12

The Bills defense allowed a passer rating of just 65.4 (531 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 90.8.

The Bills defense has allowed a passer rating of just 71.4 (883 Pass Attempts) since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 90.5.

The Bills defense allowed 12 TD passes last season — fewest in NFL.

The Bills defense allowed successful plays on 37% of pass attempts in the 1st half last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

Detroit Lions Defense: Important Stats for Week 12

Offenses facing the Lions targeted RBs 12% of the time (106 Pass Attempts/882 plays) since the 2021 season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 18%.

The Lions defense has allowed 427.1 yards from scrimmage per game this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 358.0.

The Lions defense has averaged a sack every 64.0 pass attempts (128 Pass Attempts/2 Sacks) in the red zone since the 2021 season — worst attempts per sack rate in NFL; League Avg: 17.4.

The Lions defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 29% on third and 10+ yards to go since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 20%.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.