- The Bills (7-3) are -9.5 point favorites vs the Lions (4-6)
- Total (Over/Under): 54 points
- Watch the game on CBS
The Buffalo Bills (7-3) visit Ford Field to take on the Detroit Lions (4-6) on Nov. 24. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:30pm EST in Detroit on Thanksgiving day.
The Bills are betting favorites in Week 12, with the spread sitting at -9.5 (-110).
The Bills vs. Lions Over/Under is 54.5 total points for the game.
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Bills vs. Lions Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 12
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Bills | -9.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -450 |
| Lions | +9.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +350 |
Bills vs. Lions Prediction for Week 12
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Bills will win this Week 12 game with 77.0% confidence.
Bills vs Lions Spread Prediction for Week 12
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bills will cover the spread this Week 12 with 53.0% confidence.
Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Bills and Lions, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.
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Best Bills Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Bills players for Week 12, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Allen has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+8.35 Units / 38% ROI)
- Josh Allen has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.30 Units / 38% ROI)
- Josh Allen has hit the Carries Over in his last 6 away games (+6.15 Units / 85% ROI)
- Gabriel Davis has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- Nyheim Hines has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 58% ROI)
Best Lions Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Lions players for Week 12, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jared Goff has hit the TD Passes Over in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+8.30 Units / 86% ROI)
- Jamaal Williams has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.45 Units / 48% ROI)
- Josh Reynolds has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+7.05 Units / 57% ROI)
- Jamaal Williams has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.80 Units / 42% ROI)
- Amon-Ra St. Brown has hit the Receptions Over in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+5.05 Units / 64% ROI)
First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Lions vs Bills
| Player Name | 1st TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | +500 |
| Josh Allen | +800 |
| Devin Singletary | +800 |
| Gabriel Davis | +800 |
| Jamaal Williams | +850 |
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Lions vs Bills
| Player Name | Anytime TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | -150 |
| Jamaal Williams | -110 |
| Gabriel Davis | +120 |
| Josh Allen | +125 |
| Devin Singletary | +125 |
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Lions vs Bills
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary | 14.5 -120 | 14.5 -110 |
| Dawson Knox | 38.5 -115 | 38.5 -115 |
| Gabriel Davis | 59.5 -115 | 59.5 -115 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 76.5 -120 | 76.5 -115 |
| Stefon Diggs | 91.5 -120 | 91.5 -115 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Lions vs Bills
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 3.5 -115 | 3.5 -115 |
| Devin Singletary | 58.5 -115 | 58.5 -120 |
| Josh Allen | 42.5 -115 | 42.5 -120 |
| Jamaal Williams | 54.5 -110 | 54.5 -120 |
Bills Best Bets for Week 12:
- The Buffalo Bills have scored first in 13 of their last 16 games (+8.35 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.40 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have covered the 2H Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.60 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+6.50 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+6.00 Units / 32% ROI)
Lions Best Bets for Week 12:
- The Detroit Lions have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+8.50 Units / 97% ROI)
- The Detroit Lions have hit the 1H Moneyline in 8 of their last 16 games (+8.40 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Detroit Lions have covered the 1H Spread in 11 of their last 16 games (+6.75 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Detroit Lions have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+5.95 Units / 67% ROI)
- The Detroit Lions have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+5.90 Units / 65% ROI)
Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Bills have gone 5-4 (+0.6 Units / 5.43% ROI).
- Bills are 7-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.2 Units / -8.79% ROI
- Bills are 3-7 when betting the Over for -4.7 Units / -42.73% ROI
- Bills are 7-3 when betting the Under for +3.7 Units / ROI
Lions Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Lions have gone 6-4 (+1.5 Units / 13.57% ROI).
- Lions are 4-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.15 Units / -10.65% ROI
- Lions are 7-3 when betting the Over for +3.7 Units / 33.64% ROI
- Lions are 3-7 when betting the Under for -4.7 Units / -42.73% ROI
Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the Detroit Lions
The Bills are winless (0-1) when making less than 7 explosive plays this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .387.
The Bills are 6-2 (.750) when making 5 or more explosive passes in a game this season — tied for 6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .537.
The Bills are 4-1 (.800) when not losing a fumble this season — tied for 6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .558.
The Bills are 2-3 (.400) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2021 season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .210.
Detroit Lions: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills
The Lions are 3-3-1 (.429) when forcing 2 or more turnovers since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .730.
The Lions are winless (0-2) when converting less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .447.
The Lions are 2-13-1 (.125) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .480.
The Lions are 1-5 (.167) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .476.
Additional Matchup Notes for Buffalo Bills vs. Detroit Lions
Lions RBs have averaged 8.7 yards after the catch this season — fourth-best in NFL. The Bills have allowed 8.5 yards after catch per reception to RBs this season — tied for third-worst in NFL.
The Lions are averaging just 1.5 yards per carry on 3rd and short this season — tied for third-worst in NFL. The Bills have allowed just 1.6 yards per carry when defending on 3rd and short this season — second-best in NFL.
The Bills have gone three and out on 13.5% of their drives this season — second-best in NFL. Lions have forced three and outs on 13.2% of opponent drives this season — worst in NFL.
The Bills have scored on 45.9% of their drives this season — second-best in NFL. The Lions defense has allowed scores on 42.5% of opponent drives this season — fifth-worst in NFL.
The Bills have run 53.5% offensive plays in on their opponent’s side of the field this season — best in NFL. Lions have allowed their opponents to run 47.3% of plays in their territory this season — fourth-worst in NFL.
Buffalo Bills Offense: Important Stats for Week 12
The Bills have a third down conversion rate of 39% on third and 10+ yards to go this season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: 20%.
The Bills have started 8 drives inside their own 20 yard line in the 1st quarter since the 2021 season — fewest in NFL.
The Bills have run 54% of their plays in their opponent’s territory this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Bills have 10 TDs that were 20+ yards this season — 2nd-most in NFL.
Detroit Lions Offense: Important Stats for Week 12
The Lions rushed for 4 TDs in Week 11 — most in NFL.
The Lions had a third down conversion rate of 35% last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%.
The Lions started 4 drives inside opposing territory in Week 11 — most in NFL.
The Lions ran successful plays on 28% of rush attempts in the red zone last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.
Buffalo Bills Defense: Important Stats for Week 12
The Bills defense allowed a passer rating of just 65.4 (531 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 90.8.
The Bills defense has allowed a passer rating of just 71.4 (883 Pass Attempts) since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 90.5.
The Bills defense allowed 12 TD passes last season — fewest in NFL.
The Bills defense allowed successful plays on 37% of pass attempts in the 1st half last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 47%.
Detroit Lions Defense: Important Stats for Week 12
Offenses facing the Lions targeted RBs 12% of the time (106 Pass Attempts/882 plays) since the 2021 season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 18%.
The Lions defense has allowed 427.1 yards from scrimmage per game this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 358.0.
The Lions defense has averaged a sack every 64.0 pass attempts (128 Pass Attempts/2 Sacks) in the red zone since the 2021 season — worst attempts per sack rate in NFL; League Avg: 17.4.
The Lions defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 29% on third and 10+ yards to go since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 20%.
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