- The Bills are a 7-point home favorite against the 49ers.
- The Bills have won 12 straight home games against opponents on a losing streak.
- My Bills vs. 49ers prediction rests on San Francisco’s injury news.
Off a Week 12 bye, the Bills welcome the 49ers to Buffalo for Sunday Night Football.
Buffalo entered the bye with a convincing 30-21 win over the Kansas City Chiefs. That gave the Bills a sixth straight win and a perfect 5-0 record at home.
San Francisco finds itself in disarray at the moment. Two consecutive losses have significantly reduced the 49ers’ playoff chances with a 38-10 loss at Green Bay the latest result.
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NFL Week 13 Odds: Bills vs. 49ers
Dec 1 - 8 pm EST49ers at Bills
Bills vs. 49ers Prediction, SNF
If the 49ers return their key pieces to full health by Sunday night, my Bills vs. 49ers prediction is the 49ers Spread (+7, -115).
In order to make this bet, I would need all of Brock Purdy, Trent Williams, Brandon Aiyuk and Nick Bosa to return. If any of them are out on Sunday, this game becomes a pass.
It’s difficult to quantify the true strength of San Francisco given the revolving doors of player availability.
But amidst those absences, it’s slightly reassuring the 49ers are ninth in DVOA, having faced the 12th-hardest schedule, per ftnfantasy.com.
While the Bills are the better team – they rank third in DVOA – it has come against a slightly easier schedule. Entering Week 13, Buffalo has played the 18th-hardest set of opponents.
I also question the true strength of Buffalo’s defense. Although they sit seventh in defensive DVOA, they’ve played the 21st-hardest set of opposing offenses.
Assuming Purdy and Aiyuk return, there’s also a clear path for San Francisco exploiting Buffalo’s pass defense.
Sample Weeks 1-11, and bettors will find the 49ers ranked sixth in dropback EPA per play and third in dropback success rate.
Over the same timeframe, Buffalo ranked 12th and 21st in the corresponding defensive categories.
The Bills pass defense also struggles immensely defending the middle of the field. Currently, only seven teams have a worse defensive DVOA rating through the middle.
If the 49ers can exploit that aspect of Buffalo’s defense, it should allow them to move the ball consistently and keep their weak defense off the field.
Add in Kyle Shanahan is 26-19 ATS as an underdog in his career, and it’s the 49ers or nothing for me on Sunday Night Football.
Betting Bills vs. 49ers: NFL Public Betting
Check back on Friday for Bills vs. 49ers public betting data and insights.
