- The Bills are a 2.5-point home favorite against the Chiefs.
- The Chiefs have won each of their last eight games as underdogs.
- My Bills vs. Chiefs prediction is the Chiefs to cover the spread.
The marquee matchup of Week 11 sees the 9-0 Chiefs travel to Buffalo….as road underdogs.
Kansas City’s improbable run of results continued in Week 10. Facing a game-winning field goal attempt from Denver, the Chiefs blocked to kick to capture a ninth straight win.
Buffalo handled business more convincingly in Week 10. As 3.5-point road favorites against Indianapolis, Buffalo won and covered in a 30-20 final.
Bet on Bills vs. Chiefs and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
NFL Week 11 Odds: Bills vs. Chiefs
Bills vs. Chiefs Prediction
Based on Patrick Mahomes’ record as an underdog and the Bills’ weak record against good teams, my Bills vs. Chiefs prediction is the Chiefs Spread (+2.5, -110).
Additionally, Chiefs (+8.5) is my favorite teaser leg of Week 11.
No matter how I feel about the Chiefs’ performances, there’s a slightly redeeming quality: it has come against difficult opposition.
The Chiefs, a 6-3 team by expected win-loss record, have faced the fourth-hardest schedule to date. Still, Kansas City ranks third in total DVOA.
Buffalo ranks sixth in total DVOA. However, it has come against the sixth-easiest set of opponents through 10 games.
The Bills have played only three games this season against teams with a winning record.
Buffalo is 1-2 SU in those games, including 0-2 when the opponent owns a top-five rush defense.
The Chiefs sit third in rush defense DVOA and can hide their comparably weaker secondary against a banged-up Bills receiving corps.
Now for the trends.
Mahomes is 12-1-1 ATS as a market underdog in his career. Plus, undefeated underdogs at +4 or shorter in game five onward are 19-3-1 ATS since 2003.
Additionally, fading home favorites between -3.5 and -1.5 that have either covered three straight or failed to cover three straight hits at a 65% rate since 2003.
Finally worth noting: Mahomes is a perfect 14-0 ATS against a six-point teaser as an underdog in his career.
Back the Chiefs to cover the spread in Buffalo and use them as a core teaser leg.
Bills vs. Chiefs: NFL Public Betting Trends
| Bets% (Spread) | Money% (Spread) | Bets% (ML) | Money% (ML) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | 62% | 61% | 72% | 46% |
| Bills | 38% | 39% | 28% | 54% |
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